Bitcoin's Great Wall of Support at 3300 on February 10th 2020
If Bitcoin comes down to the region of $3300 in early February 2020, this article will be very relevant. There is an overwhelming cluster of price/time barriers converging in one spot. This degree of confluence doesn't occur often. Here it is presented very early, giving you advanced notice of its existence. Before I go on, know that this is NOT a forecast. The market is very far away from this time/price level and may well never go through it. The point is not necessarily price-magnetic.
ANALYSIS POINTS:
1) OK, firstly, note the dotted cyan line connecting points A and B. This line represents a two-dimensional measure of price and time. Financial markets are often full of angular symmetry, where price swings have a tendency to be of the same angle of ascent or descent. As such, taking a copy of the cyan dotted line as the 'base angle' and projecting it from a secondary high is a reasonable way to determine where a future move might go. The downward swing from point C could end anywhere on that cyan line and have angular symmetry with the prior downward swing. If the swing ended right on the end of the line, it would be a perfect 1:1 projection. In our case, this is impossible because it would mean forecasting bitcoin's price to fall as low as $-2742. Even Peter Schiff would struggle to argue a case for that outcome. There is something else we can do to reveal some alternative, more probable points on the line for the market to reverse though. That is to take a 1:0.618 Fibonacci projection. This isn't shown on the chart, but 61.8% along that second cyan lines falls right in the red circle.
2) It's quite clear by visual inspection that price/time point determined in the first Analysis Point (AP) coincides with the prior support from point B. This is shown by the horizontal green line. This gives us an area with two very good support cases. One comes from the horizontal plane, the other from the diagonal plane.
3) Further to the second AP, notice the result of taking a 1.618 extension of the final upward swing to point C. This is shown by the white dotted Fibonacci levels. The 1.618 projection level goes right through the centre of the red circle, too. This is another contributer of support in the horizontal plane. Three separate price barriers now all converge.
4) Markets have a tendency, but not an obligation, to revserse on mathematically significant time bars. What I mean by this is that low-to-low, low-to-high, high-to-low and high-to-high rotations tend to last for a significant number of candlesticks. For example, observe the time difference between the low at B and our red circle of confluence. Exactly 62 weeks from B, the purple (magenta?) dotted vertical line crosses through our circle, right on the intersection of the cyan line from AP1, green line from AP2 and white line from AP3. If you're not sure of the signifcance of the number 62, it is a derivative of the Fibonacci ratio, phi, 0.618. Floating the decimal point and rounding gives 62 as the nearest value to phi in this time frame.
5) In addition the AP4, the 62 week low-to-low rotation between B and the potential new low in the red circle would coincide with a 34 high-to-low rotation from the high at C to our new low. The significance of the number 34 comes from its presence in the Fibonacci sequence (1,12,3,5,8,13,21,34...). This gives us more conviction that there may be a reversal on, or very close to this time cluster.
Believe it or not, this is a relatively surface-level analysis which can be taken much further. I wanted to share an example of the mathematical unity that can be found in markets. Here we have a beautiful combination of horizontal, vertical and diagonal barrier overlays all converging on one very precise price and time.
Once again, this is not a forecast. It is a case study of a small variety of predictive techniques which is very interesting. Rest assured, if nearer the time the market looks as though entering the red circle may be a liklihood, you will hear from us at Quantium Research again. If that happens, what we publish may well be a forecast.
Thanks for reading.
ANALYSIS POINTS:
1) OK, firstly, note the dotted cyan line connecting points A and B. This line represents a two-dimensional measure of price and time. Financial markets are often full of angular symmetry, where price swings have a tendency to be of the same angle of ascent or descent. As such, taking a copy of the cyan dotted line as the 'base angle' and projecting it from a secondary high is a reasonable way to determine where a future move might go. The downward swing from point C could end anywhere on that cyan line and have angular symmetry with the prior downward swing. If the swing ended right on the end of the line, it would be a perfect 1:1 projection. In our case, this is impossible because it would mean forecasting bitcoin's price to fall as low as $-2742. Even Peter Schiff would struggle to argue a case for that outcome. There is something else we can do to reveal some alternative, more probable points on the line for the market to reverse though. That is to take a 1:0.618 Fibonacci projection. This isn't shown on the chart, but 61.8% along that second cyan lines falls right in the red circle.
2) It's quite clear by visual inspection that price/time point determined in the first Analysis Point (AP) coincides with the prior support from point B. This is shown by the horizontal green line. This gives us an area with two very good support cases. One comes from the horizontal plane, the other from the diagonal plane.
3) Further to the second AP, notice the result of taking a 1.618 extension of the final upward swing to point C. This is shown by the white dotted Fibonacci levels. The 1.618 projection level goes right through the centre of the red circle, too. This is another contributer of support in the horizontal plane. Three separate price barriers now all converge.
4) Markets have a tendency, but not an obligation, to revserse on mathematically significant time bars. What I mean by this is that low-to-low, low-to-high, high-to-low and high-to-high rotations tend to last for a significant number of candlesticks. For example, observe the time difference between the low at B and our red circle of confluence. Exactly 62 weeks from B, the purple (magenta?) dotted vertical line crosses through our circle, right on the intersection of the cyan line from AP1, green line from AP2 and white line from AP3. If you're not sure of the signifcance of the number 62, it is a derivative of the Fibonacci ratio, phi, 0.618. Floating the decimal point and rounding gives 62 as the nearest value to phi in this time frame.
5) In addition the AP4, the 62 week low-to-low rotation between B and the potential new low in the red circle would coincide with a 34 high-to-low rotation from the high at C to our new low. The significance of the number 34 comes from its presence in the Fibonacci sequence (1,12,3,5,8,13,21,34...). This gives us more conviction that there may be a reversal on, or very close to this time cluster.
Believe it or not, this is a relatively surface-level analysis which can be taken much further. I wanted to share an example of the mathematical unity that can be found in markets. Here we have a beautiful combination of horizontal, vertical and diagonal barrier overlays all converging on one very precise price and time.
Once again, this is not a forecast. It is a case study of a small variety of predictive techniques which is very interesting. Rest assured, if nearer the time the market looks as though entering the red circle may be a liklihood, you will hear from us at Quantium Research again. If that happens, what we publish may well be a forecast.
Thanks for reading.
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