$BTC technicals don't look good
Updated
Hello fellow traders and crypto padawans. The analysis is on the chart so I will spare you guys from redundancy here. All I hear on twitter is people talking about how bitcoin will reach 85k by next week. I would really hope so as I own some myself. Is it possible in the current scenario? Well, I think BTC has proven over and over again that it is capable of large moves in a short amount of time when it is not expected. However, while it is possible the chart seems to disagree, at least for the time being. As you can see, there are enough a lot bearish indicators so I think we should thread carefully here.
Buying is completely out of question for me. Perhaps if we break with volume and close the daily above 60k, which doesn't seem likely at the moment. If you are a holder like I am it may be prudent to find a strategic place and set a stop loss. There are several you can choose from in the chart depending on your risk tolerance: the triangle support, other support levels (white dotted lines), or the 21ema. If either the 21ema or the ascending triangle support is broken I think a test of the 50ema is almost certain. We could see a bounce from there but if we do break two major support levels (21ema and triangle support) I think we would retrace further down since volume is really weak at the moment. Support levels on the way down if we ever go there: 48k, 43k, 38K, 30k. I don't think we would go lower than 30k though.
On the flip side, ARK Investment upgraded TSLA's price target to $3,000.00 by 2025 so if we have a Tesla rally tomorrow based on that--and most likely we will--it may spill over to Bitcoin as well because people started linking Tesla and Bitcoin since Elon Musk announced they hold a fair amount of Bitcoin. I don't think that would be enough to start a new rally though. Perhaps a revisit to ATH and another push down from there. This is obviously speculation on my part but we can agree these scenarios are very possible based on price movements of these assets in the past. If any of these scenarios happen, we are already prepared and can act accordingly. That's what trading is about anyway: being prepared for different scenarios based on technicals, fundamentals, and news.
Also, one could venture to suggest there is a cup & handle pattern being formed (the cup is the rounding bottom and the handle is currently being formed on the consolidation) so you can keep an eye on that as well.
I hope this helps you guys reason about your next move.
Good luck and safe trades!
===If you get anything out of this text, please hit the like button and/or follow for updates and new publications.===
***The ideas shared here are my opinion, not financial advise to place trades. Please do your own research before buying/selling stocks***
Buying is completely out of question for me. Perhaps if we break with volume and close the daily above 60k, which doesn't seem likely at the moment. If you are a holder like I am it may be prudent to find a strategic place and set a stop loss. There are several you can choose from in the chart depending on your risk tolerance: the triangle support, other support levels (white dotted lines), or the 21ema. If either the 21ema or the ascending triangle support is broken I think a test of the 50ema is almost certain. We could see a bounce from there but if we do break two major support levels (21ema and triangle support) I think we would retrace further down since volume is really weak at the moment. Support levels on the way down if we ever go there: 48k, 43k, 38K, 30k. I don't think we would go lower than 30k though.
On the flip side, ARK Investment upgraded TSLA's price target to $3,000.00 by 2025 so if we have a Tesla rally tomorrow based on that--and most likely we will--it may spill over to Bitcoin as well because people started linking Tesla and Bitcoin since Elon Musk announced they hold a fair amount of Bitcoin. I don't think that would be enough to start a new rally though. Perhaps a revisit to ATH and another push down from there. This is obviously speculation on my part but we can agree these scenarios are very possible based on price movements of these assets in the past. If any of these scenarios happen, we are already prepared and can act accordingly. That's what trading is about anyway: being prepared for different scenarios based on technicals, fundamentals, and news.
Also, one could venture to suggest there is a cup & handle pattern being formed (the cup is the rounding bottom and the handle is currently being formed on the consolidation) so you can keep an eye on that as well.
I hope this helps you guys reason about your next move.
Good luck and safe trades!
===If you get anything out of this text, please hit the like button and/or follow for updates and new publications.===
***The ideas shared here are my opinion, not financial advise to place trades. Please do your own research before buying/selling stocks***
Note
Currently breaking below the triangle support: Note
We broke down the triangle support with average volume so far. Still 2h to close the daily. On support of 54k. If this support is broken our next stops on the way down are 52k, 50k, and 48k. We can reassess from there if we get to those levels.Note
First target of 52k just reached. I think we have more downside. Still not buying here. Will only buy when I see strong signs of reversal.Note
Bounced from the 50ema as I had suggested on the analysis. Now we need to wait and see if it holds above. Other indicators can be helpful to determine when it is safe to start buying back.
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