Calling 88K Again — Here’s Why
I'm calling for 88K again, and there are multiple reasons behind this view — both technical and structural.
One key perspective I like to focus on is the weekly chart. Typically, weekly candles tend to retrace to their 50% level, especially when there's a fair value gap involved. In this case, we have a weekly FVG candle whose midpoint aligns with several other areas of confluence. ill show an old chart i did this kind of TA on and the current one below.
As you'll see in the TA below:
When I pull a Fibonacci retracement from the low to the current high, the 0.618 zone lines up beautifully.
When I pull a fib from the base of the impulse (i.e., the origin of the move) to the current high, I’m getting a 0.382, suggesting potential for a bullish bounce.
When I overlay the full volume profile of the range from above, it lands us right on a major volume shelf — essentially the value area low of the current macro structure.
It’s also the 50% retracement of the current weekly candle.
Many of the SMA's converge in this area also ill show in the notes below.
Structurally, it represents a retest of the lower range (from the consolidation) versus the breakout into the higher range.
On top of all that, if you look at the weekly chart (see below), we just SFP’d the Point of Control (POC) from the entire upper distribution since November 2024s— a key liquidity grab that often precedes major upside continuation.
All signs point to a healthy retracement and bounce from here. 88K is still very much in play.
I don't know if this is it and we go down to the 69k area I'm keeping my sights on its totally probably this was and is a dead cat bounce...or we get a bullish bounce and go to ATH. I can NOT be sure of it until more data appears as time goes on.
I closed my eth trade from my previous post early but made a great money. closed at 1762 april 22 then opened at 1760 on april 30 retrace and road up to 1825 may1st before that last impulse up. early but pfft. great trade.
I'm calling for 88K again, and there are multiple reasons behind this view — both technical and structural.
One key perspective I like to focus on is the weekly chart. Typically, weekly candles tend to retrace to their 50% level, especially when there's a fair value gap involved. In this case, we have a weekly FVG candle whose midpoint aligns with several other areas of confluence. ill show an old chart i did this kind of TA on and the current one below.
As you'll see in the TA below:
When I pull a Fibonacci retracement from the low to the current high, the 0.618 zone lines up beautifully.
When I pull a fib from the base of the impulse (i.e., the origin of the move) to the current high, I’m getting a 0.382, suggesting potential for a bullish bounce.
When I overlay the full volume profile of the range from above, it lands us right on a major volume shelf — essentially the value area low of the current macro structure.
It’s also the 50% retracement of the current weekly candle.
Many of the SMA's converge in this area also ill show in the notes below.
Structurally, it represents a retest of the lower range (from the consolidation) versus the breakout into the higher range.
On top of all that, if you look at the weekly chart (see below), we just SFP’d the Point of Control (POC) from the entire upper distribution since November 2024s— a key liquidity grab that often precedes major upside continuation.
All signs point to a healthy retracement and bounce from here. 88K is still very much in play.
I don't know if this is it and we go down to the 69k area I'm keeping my sights on its totally probably this was and is a dead cat bounce...or we get a bullish bounce and go to ATH. I can NOT be sure of it until more data appears as time goes on.
I closed my eth trade from my previous post early but made a great money. closed at 1762 april 22 then opened at 1760 on april 30 retrace and road up to 1825 may1st before that last impulse up. early but pfft. great trade.
Note
weekly 50%, notice the sma's these weekly sma's need to catch up a bit. ill show more details in different tf's below.Note
this is the daily chart view. notce the area the white arrow is pointing to. sma's converging there and i added the purple line that shows the shelf at the volume profile im looking at. Note
h12 chart with the fibs i mentioned. pulling from the low to the high of this full move. and pulling one from the impulse to the high. both adding confluence to this area. if you extend the h12 sma's out some distance it looks like they will converge in this area.
Note
here i dropped further down to the h4 chart. look how the sma's here also will converge in this area. the 200 will move into this area by the time it gets down there. I'm also showing the back test of the BO of the lower range. it is the division of the upper range and the lower range shown by the two white boxesNote
above chart is h6 this one is h4. here i have all the confluence turned on. a lot aligns here. plus its 88 iykyk muahahahah!
Note
today i started to look at where it could bounce before the obvious 88k. i notices the MS on the h1 looks similar to the frist leg of the daily upper range from end of last year. i copied the bar pattern of the daily chart where it made the two high marks. then overlayed in on the h1. so ill be watching the orderflow here. I will most likely jump into a trade here and not wait for 88k. it will be an easy invalidation aka ill know exactly where to place the stop losesNote
lets see what happens around the daily full range POCNote
zoomed in. lets see what happens at the fvg. i might have missed the long. i grabbed eth on the dip tho. but not as much as i wanted at all
Note
ETH is rounding over. it could get a push up be really i have no idea which way its going to go at this point. The FVG on BTC has not hit i do expect it. but ETH is underperforming my expectations. ETH is hold the most recent h12 OB it just bounced of the 50% which is great. but lets see. i dont want to see it loose this level. i did take a long breaking my rules. im currently underwater on it. i have an invalidation. at that 50%
Trade active
the level hit. short active. just found this bullish 5.0 to add even more confluence to the 88k area. Note
That harmonic is NOT valid actually. the daily just hit though. lets see what happensNote
added to my BCH trade. my stop is in profit. and BTC is hitting this shelfhere at 98.8 so there is some hefty resistance because of that. remembering today is Wednesday and BTC makes the most extreme for the week usually on this day. all the little circles are all Wednesday. so its a good probability that today follows suit. anyway trade active easy invalidationNote
stop hit on BCH slipage lost $50 no biggie. but the eth trade i closed early was silly. i made 1000 but it would be 4500 now. tough oneTrade closed: stop reached
Note
dman i thought stopped on my eth trade i did not. carried 35 from 1828 to now 2125.
When I make a post, i will continually make updates while the PA is building and moving so you can follow my thinking. Follow for notifications. Boost and make comments to let me know you care.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
When I make a post, i will continually make updates while the PA is building and moving so you can follow my thinking. Follow for notifications. Boost and make comments to let me know you care.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.