Long

Current View on BTC and Market 12/10/2023

Updated

Watch video. Too lazy to type what I said.

It would be nice if they had a speech to text thing for this so that it would write what I said.

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Video

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Video. Added onto Mara long hoping to hold 4HR hull here.

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Somewhat cautious of the DXY starting this day candle above ~104.03

Week start made DXY look nice, among other things, and the day can look nice if we start above that target.

The worry here is that the day start will propel us into the 105 area for DXY

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So we started bearish on day time frame, but are bullish week tf. Wouldnt be surprised if we see btc have some trouble when/if DXY hits 103.8 for a small bounce. I still think we need to see it start above the Day 375 hull average to pick up stream this week. Before the fed stuff anyway.

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Also looking for btc start above 4HR hull on respective timeframe for extended move up. Not sure if it can do it yet or not. Though in respect to alts, I could easily see anything being fairly safe before DXY hitting 103.8.

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DXY bounced on 103.83 and BTC looks like a bull trap. Still waiting for a 4HR open above the 4HR averages before I expect movement upwards. Thought I am not really afraid of a huge DXY bounce until/if it starts the day candle above 104.055 this week.

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Interesting that a bearish start did nothing for BTC. Keep in mind that starting in a bearish spot doesnt mean it will go down, just the likelihood is higher.

I do not like the price action we have been seeing. Not bullish until we come back above 4HR hulls on a 4HR candle. current it is at 42,343.

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Looks good. We started above the 4HR hulls. Week tf looks good. Hopefully we sell to 42.5 and the blast off. That what I believe will happen from here anyway.

I am not worried about the averages above us.

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I think were still fine, even though it may look kind of sketch.

At this point, its should not really be surprising what I want to see. Under 4HR and maybe were bearish.

Its just hard to see us falling from here when the dollar has just lost so much value.

If I had to guess, I think that the price is being manipulated a bit to keep it in this range to get people scared out and to buy more. I think any movement in an upwards direction might send to price too high for people to buy it here and if they send it to 42.5, it may look too good and then shoot up very quickly.

So in that sense, I believe there is merit to keeping the price in this range for accumulation purposes.

Pray for the second Set of Mara OTM calls that I have. LOL I have 1300 bucks averaged at around 6 cents. It ended yesterday at 7 cents. 🙏🙏 If we start the day (MARA) at 17.50, they should easily be 14 cents. Yolo 😏

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400 at 4 cents 1k at 7 cents, sold at 10 cents.

Opened 17 dollar put for end of week.

I think we cup then move upwards next week. So i think we stall here. Im fine if i lose todays profits anyway.

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I believe we are bearish into the next week start candle on the DXY.

I outline what I want to see the DXY do. There is still a possibility for an incredbily bearish week coming up for the dollar.

Watch video for rest of details.

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Im a bit more bearish than i was yesterday. Im not liking that. Still, I think its more important to just wait to the DXY opens on sunday to reassess the direction we may take.

While the open on last Sunday had much more potential to ruin stocks and BTC than this weeks would, it did cause a volatile drop.

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It is what it is. More boring Price action, they sell to target and we go up. There is nothing hard to understand about this.

If that is difficult for you to understand, then good. Watch the video and listen. I make 18-20 minute videos regularly not to say what I think is going to happen, but to EXPLAIN why I think it will happen and how I analyze.

I may have looked at DXY wrong in assuming that there is control over where it can actually start the new week. It seems that there is no influence to where it starts from past history. (I need to triple check though.

So assuming that I still think the DXY will be bullish on open, but most likely reject at 103.188.

I suspect we open at 102.6, drop to 102.25 and then go to 103.188 and reject. Starting the next week under 102.25 and sending the dollar towards 100 buckerinos. I pray for no overselling that turns the dollar into the reversal it started in late July.

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m very bearish, but not short.
The last buy was at 41.600 and the sell at 41.600 for an exchange fee trade.

I have 0 idea where to buy BTC unless it drops significantly, or if it starts the day above 43k. I dont see a reason to trade it inbetween 43 and 37k right now..

Its hard to see us bouncing on amazing support (37-37.6k) that we just recently pushed off of.

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Looking for break above 4HR hull.

Currently at 43344

Hopefullly we sit here until next week for MARA purposes.

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Too lazy to type. Looks like Dxy can continue higher and Vix has momentum building.

I talk about it in the video

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I got puts on MARA with a strike price of $21.50, expiring next Friday.

only 800 bucks worth, but lets see what happens. As I have been consistently saying. I am not a big fan of how overbought we are, when it is fine if we drop a couple percent. On BTC kind of, but more so the indices and especially MARA.

I still think the fair value for MARA should be around 21-22.5. Not all the way up at $25.

I am not really trading on BTC dropping, but sitting at worst and MARA being overbought and pulling back a bit.

From a BTC standpoint, I would not short here.

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Lets see what happens. Not much to say I suppose, besides the position I increased today.

If I lose the money. Oh well.

I am not trading MARA if BTC goes up. It will be too overbought for me. So this is my finale on MARA for this run up.

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We almost made big money. Those Mara traders sure are weird. Overbought to 31, just to drop to 23.5 in 2 days. Oh well. Hope they learned their lesson.

Anyway. Click on video for description.

I still were (at this point) more likely to be going down just to go up. The video is 20 mins and details and the description has a summary.

TrendLINEBoys

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