Short

Updated

Completing this Downtrend - BTC to: 7015 > 7160 > 6940 ~12hrs

Unless Bitcoin gets very strong buy volume soon to push out of this down-trend, this is the likely price movement I see happening over the next ~12 hours.
to: 7015 > 7160 > 6940
There's a likely chance of up-trend after this.

For more regular updates, follow me on Twitter: AndrewEDavis

Note

Bitcoin followed my path well until that sudden surge of buy volume spiked us upward.
(Met) 7015
(Met) 7160
(Not met) 6940
(Met) Uptrend to follow (7700-8000)

It may be a good idea to buy on pullback around the yellow box range (or before, not guaranteed to pull back far), and set stop-losses.

I did begin to notice signs of Bullish divergence in BTC, when price began to drag out sideways. However, as we aren't yet out of larger down-trend, protecting Fiat seemed more important than hoping for a sudden pump, so I didn't change from initial path.

Note

Note

I want to point out that there's a strong Support/Resistance line ~7395 that BTC was pushed over to reach it's current point; which now acts as support holding up price.

Don't rely on it necessarily retracing below.
This pump was likely intentionally aimed to push over that resistance line.

Note

Bitcoin currently looks like a Bull Flag. Could be another 1-2 hrs before we see real movement. May not retrace below orange support line.

Note

I was in the middle of posting an update when Bitcoin started moving again.
I wanted to mention that there is some resistance in the 7500-7050 region.

Note

I may prepare to temporarily exit.

Note

I've temporarily exited my positions for now (fast moving #Altcoins), all in decent profit.
Maybe it gets higher, but I feel safer sitting out for a bit.
I see what appears to be 5 waves completed, and I believe a stronger correction may be due soon.
BRB in a while.

Note

Here's my rough guesstimate for now, on how the next 6-8 hours may play out for Bitcoin.
Do remember that we are still in a larger down-trend for the moment, be cautious of staying in $BTC/#Altcoins for too long.
(I'll be away for a bit now to catch up on business & other stuff)

Note

Bitcoin still moving as expected, just dragging on a bit slowly. I've updated my average targets based on new data.
BTC to: 7360 > 7470 > 7325 > Uptrend
Time: ~10-15hrs
BTC needs to avoid falling below 7275.
I'll calculate the next upward targets if/when this correction plays out well.

Note

After zooming in to my Bitcoin chart, I actually believe we are closer to completing this small correction.
BTC to 7370 in 2-4hrs, then we attempt to uptrend further.

Note

As Bitcoin is resisting to correct much, I recommend using your discretion on entry for potential breakout upward.

Ideally I'd like to see BTC retrace my green box range first, however it is holding to a narrow channel at the moment.

I still see continued uptrend more likely than downtrend.

Note

Bitcoin price finally retraced into my green box as I hoped for, however, the price fall is very steep so far, pushing almost through the box already.
Bulls have not lost for the day unless we break below the ~7275 range (red box).

Note

It's possible that Bitcoin's correction (B-wave) may be complete around here. (Not fully confirmed yet - Do stay alert)
So far BTC has held without falling through my ~7275 danger zone.
Let's see if BTC can manage to uptrend further for the day.

Note

Bitcoin was able to bounce from my 7275 lower limit target, then push upward strongly so far. Moving as expecting.
BTC may be making a small Bull Flag here, IF it does happen to press upward a bit more, I believe it may need to retrace after hitting the yellow box range ~7540.

Note

Posted as quickly as I could (on Twitter: twitter.com/AndrewEDavis ) that "7580 & 7650 are next resistances" once I saw my initial 7540 mark broken with strong volume.
~7520 is now a support range; the next significant support I see is at ~7430.
My chart of BTC's next movements is bit of a guess until I have more data

Note

Bitcoin has played out overnight just about exactly as I speculated in my last post. It didn't retrace much and formed a Bull Flag.

There seems a good chance that BTC may push upward again soon, and attempt ~7700.
Resistance still to overcome @ ~7600.

Note

Updated (as time has progressed) with support regions (red boxes) in case Bitcoin is unable to break through resistance at ~7600.
Still seems a good chance BTC can get to ~7710 soon.

Note

The resistance I noted @ 7600 held Bitcoin down.
It was unable to break & fell to first support level (slightly broke).

There's a "chance" of recovery but I'll sit out in Fiat until things stabilize. Likely still in a larger downtrend as I mentioned, and we already made great gains in the past 2 days.

Note

After analyzing Bitcoin's recent movements closely and reviewing the entire move up of the past 2 days, I see a chance for another wave up for the next hours/day.

I remind that we are still in a larger down-trend, so be cautious and use stop-losses if attempting this play.

BTC to~: 7460 > 7600 > 7520 > 7640 (maybe higher if enough pump volume)
Time: ~10-18hrs
If heavy sell volume breaks through the 7460 yellow support zone, then ~7350 is next support, followed by ~7275.

Note

Bitcoin was moving right on target until that flash crash came when attempting 5th wave.
(Met) 7460
(Met) 7600
(Met) 7520
(Not met) 7640
(Met) 7350 (support held on drop)

Another fall to ~7275 is likely after this small support bounce is complete (could be done any time soon).

---

I exited at the top of wave-3, in good profits for safety.
I did however set orders to catch wave-4 on retracement
After crash held @ my 7350 support fortunately I was able to exit all orders (except 1) without loss/small profit.
Up well overall in profit from this overnight run.

Note

ADA / Cardano had a really strong run recently, I made good profits riding its waves up.
Although BTC is stalling to make a decision at the moment, ADA seemed overbought to me.
I opened a sizable Short position on ADA after BTC's small bounce.
Just closed for ~2.5% profit.

Note

IF #Bitcoin doesn't fall soon to ~7275, this is currently my current GUESS as to how #BTC may move over the next ~2/3 days.

Not enough data yet to give a conclusive analysis, however I need to catch up on some business work, so I am sharing some thoughts in the meantime.

to:
W2: 7480
W3: 7250/7125
W4: 7350/7250
W5: 7100/6940
Time: 2/3 days
(Downside targets/route depends on volume intensity)

Note

I see that BTC managed to uptrend strongly for the day.
It seems that many are calling for BTC to get to ~8k overnight.
I recommend caution with going Long on this idea, as it may imply that wave-3 is the shorter than 1 & 5.
(Chart in a bit - I haven't been on much for today)

---

My "GUESS" on this chart did not play out, though as I said, I didn't have enough data at the time to properly analyze.
BTC followed my W2 path, but managed to hop on TOP of the 7480 resistance instead of being pushed down by it. It then used 7480 as support to springboard up.

(Updated chart based on new data coming soon)

Note

I see Bitcoin potentially on wave-1 of 5 at the start of a new uptrend.
It seems more likely that BTC will pull back before getting higher, otherwise wave-3 of this impulse would be the shortest (invalid count).

First support @ ~7550, but drop to ~7450 is more likely.

The longer BTC continues to move sideways, the more likely it is to drop.
Almost sure to drop if this side moment continues for another 6-12 hrs.
BTC needs to pump soon if it is to get higher overnight.

Note

This could also be a possible wave count for Bitcoin.
In this case, we would have already completed W-1 & 2, and are now on subW-1 of W-3.
If this is the case, then we can still have retracement, but more shallow.
This isn't my main count for now, but I won't rule it out.

Note

These are the significant Support and Resistances I see for Bitcoin at the moment.
The abnormal movement recently (Sideways > Pump > Sideways > Dump) makes it difficult to count these waves correctly.

Maybe after BTC makes its next move, we may have a clearer picture of its current count.

Note

This is my guesstimate for now as to how #Bitcoin may correct over the next day or two.
I don't want to commit strongly right now to any count/targets, as the recent odd movements and lack of retracement for ~3days makes analyzing more difficult.

I believe a correction to 7600-7400 is due, however at the moment it is resting on channel support, and a sudden pump can take it higher without further retracement.

Note

Updated my BTC thoughts based on that quick jump at support it just did.
If we do correct further, doesn't look as though it will drag on very long.
Correction may complete ~7600.
Not clear right now how BTC will move, due to the sideways movement followed by sharp drops/pumps.

Note

I see ~7590 as the most likely end target for Bitcoin's current correction.
Time: ~3-8hrs
The next support regions are labelled in my chart.

It may be a good idea to be present for the end of this correction.
There's a chance than BTC and Altcoins can take off strongly after.

Note

Updated Notes & Targets:
My red support zone did hold, but downtrend of yesterday does not look like an ABC correction to me.

It seems more likely we are in a larger ABC correction (which is more proportional to the up move), or a strong chance that we only completed wave-1 of 5 down.

If we are trying to fit with the "6th of June" theory (risky to rely on this), then we may complete this down move @ ~7285.

However, the uptrend of past week looks more like an ABC correction than an impulse up; seems a strong chance we only completed 1 wave down of 5 to ~6950.

Note

Bitcoin spent most of the day inside my red drop zone, but eventually broke down further.
Right now, we should have completed a subwave-3 of W5 down, with likely 1 push further down to ~7340.
I'll try to set next targets once we confirm the end of this drop.

I did have some suspicion that this BTC impulse down (wave-A) may not have been complete; the wave-3 of WA in my previous chart was short & a bit odd (sorry for not mentioning this suspicion sooner).

I'll try to remember to make mention of when I suspect such things.
Was more focused this morning on what general position we may have been at right now.

I shorted this drop in time when I noticed it was about to break down.

Only did small scalps during the day, didn't maintain any long position.

Initially I did enter long before getting to sleep, but was stopped out (lost ~0.5%), but made it back with my next scalp.

Note

Bitcoin managed a decent pump today. The next major resistance above this current wave up is @ ~7660.
I expect some pull back when BTC price hits around that area.
(I fortunately got into my Long #Altcoin positions at the bottom before takeoff)

Note

I should be more clear: IF/When Bitcoin's price touches ~7660, I expect some pullback, as it's a major resistance area.
No guarantee we get exactly there as this is a 5th subwave (doesn't have to be large) & isn't particularly a Bull Flag/Pennant that would give a long extension.

I'm about to tighten my trailing stoploss and observe for good Long position exit soon. #Altcoins.

Note

This wave up for Bitcoin looks almost done.
Reached my ~7660 range and pulled back.
It "may" be able to manage one last subwave to near/touch ~7700.

Note

I've exited my #Altcoin positions with nice profit. Not waiting/hoping for this wave up to get further.
Will be back in a bit with further update/chart.

Note

I see #Bitcoin likely retracing (drop) soon to the 7500-7430 range, before attempting another move up.
I already filled #Altcoin shorts at the top for the expected retracement, soon moving stoploss to a profitable position.
(I'll be away for a while)
, #BTC

Note

I just exited my Altcoin shorts position with small profits, as I don't like how prices are stalling this long to retrace (drop).
Will re-enter on more clarity.

Note

The structure at the moment sort of resembles a Bull Flag, so I don't want to take the risk of hoping for the drop.

Note

As mentioned in my last comment update, I've just exited my #Altcoin Short positions with small profits. I will re-enter on more clarity.

I don't like how the structure is stalling and resembles a Bull Flag.
IF #Bitcoin jumps up again, it may get to ~7700.

Note

A 5th subwave up for #Bitcoin now seems more likely. Could get to ~7720.
I exited Shorts in small profit, but won't go Long right now. I'll wait to confirm end of this wave up, then short the drop.
(I'm away for a while)

Note

Bitcoin has been moving sideways for almost an entire day now. These movements are difficult to interpret as the waves are not proportional or typical.
However, I'm of the opinion that BTC "More Likely" to drop soon to the ~7485 range.

Note

All recent Bitcoin targets met Exactly or Very close.
Successfully exited Shorts at the bottom of this drop.
Also finished filling my Long orders at the bottom. Setting stop-losses shortly.
My next target is BTC to ~7750 range.
Next support in case of further breakdown: ~7425.

Note

Please Note:
To get to my next target of ~7750, there is some strong resistance we need to overcome @ ~7575.
Maybe we touch there first & retrace as waves 1 & 2, & hopefully get some pump-like volume for wave-3 to push us through this resistance area.

Note

I mentioned in my last post "hopefully get some pump-like volume for wave-3 to push us through this resistance area" and it came as expected. :)

Bitcoin managed a nice little pump to push us through the resistance area I mentioned, and is now in a better position to push further.

The BTC mini-pump did come a bit sooner than I expected, and wave-1 was smaller than expected. But it works out all good either way. :)

Note

That was a big Flash Dump on Bitfinex... Luckily I exited all positions exactly on the top of this wave (for safety) & planned for re-entry after pull-back.
I'm letting things settle for a bit before planning re-entry.
Theoretically we can reach to ~7750, but is volatile at the moment.

Note

Some are asking "what happens next" with Bitcoin?
It becomes a bit more uncertain now, because of the volatility in the past hour. Pump took off very quickly & flash dump at the end of that small pump.

I'd only re-enter Long for a quick scalp if pulls back to ~7610 or more, and will exit promptly around 7720.
It may not get much higher than that, and is likely to go downward after this.

Alternatively, I may also re-enter if this drags out for a while as a Bull Flag/Pennant for wave-4, and BTC may be able to manage slightly higher than 7720 in this case.

Note

BTC made it to my main upside target of 7750. I expect some pullback to at least ~7600.
I rode this 5th subwave up also, via Alts, since some Altcoins retraced heavily on 4th (while BTC didn't).
I've already entered short positions at the top.
I'll post last update in a bit.

Note

Quick update (I'm falling asleep here as I was about to update and post chart).
I expect Bitcoin to retrace to ~7600 over the coming hours.

There's a good chance that we will have 5 waves down (sub 7600), however, I want to see how the price reacts around 7600 first & revalidate count.

I've entered short positions at the top where my targed of 7750 was met.
I have placed a stoploss and a trailing stoploss to lock in profits.
I'll also place an exit order around 7600.
Safe strategy for whatever outcome happens.

Note

Bitcoin target of 7600 I set yesterday has been met exactly.
I've exited all Short positions at the bottom in nice profits. Filled Longs for quick scalp.

As BTC's price movement has been odd today, I'll let things settle a bit before analyzing next target.

You can follow me on Twitter for more timely and consistent updates: twitter.com/AndrewEDavis

Note

I just exited my Long positions for decent quick scalp profit (entered at bottom of drop, same time I exited Shorts)
I'm not yet comfortable staying in Long at moment, as I feel there is possibility that BTC can resume downward further soon.
I'll try to analyze potential targets

Note

Bitcoin is at a strong support area right now @ 7600, however, there is a good possibility of it breaking down further.

If BTC gets below ~7575, it should continue downward to ~7480 range.
It only has a short window of opportunity to attempt a pump/jump soon to get to ~7750.

Note

I think there is a decent chance that #Bitcoin will attempt to reach or break ~7750 today.
(I'm a bit more busy today, but I will try to analyze further and update with chart as soon as I get the chance)
I've entered Long positions with stop-losses.
Exited last shorts in profit.

Note

Bitcoin first upside resistance at ~7690.

Note

There isn't a lot of strong or consistent volume behind this upward move so far, so do stay cautious and set stop-losses for safety if you are taking the trade.

Note

I'll likely be away from the computer/online for some hours now,
so unfortunately I won't be able to analyze/update/chart till later.
Keep safe!

Note

There's a chance that may simply be on a small ABC correction right now, in preparation for another 5 subwaves down.
That's what I was actually expecting initially, another wave down.
I'm looking to either tighten stop-losses or exit longs as I won't be online for a while.

Note

If attempting Short position for another potential BTC drop, my downside target is still the same as last night, ~7480. (Seems more likely at the moment)

If BTC manages another upside move, it can get to 7750.
(I was still sleepy when I woke to see the mini-pump & didn't analyze yet)

Note

Update: If Bitcoin does break downward (seems probable), while ~7480 is a support range & may offer some bounce, there's a good chance that BTC continues tumbling towards ~7310 as a wave-3 down.
The wave formation of the past 2 days makes it difficult to count current position.

Note

Bitcoin hasn't moved very far over past day, however it has been trending towards my predicted direction, which is downward (Price is down since my last post - Low volume is slowing down price movement).

BTC seems more likely to continue downward again soon, toward ~7450 range.

Note

Bitcoin began falling exactly upon touching the 7635 mark I placed in my last post.
BTC did bounce briefly at the 7450 mark in my yellow box, but sell-off was too massive & it fell right to my next support zone.
I did expect BTC to reach there (red box), just not right away.

I'm not setting next targets right away, as I'd like things to settle a bit more.
I'm unsure as to if subwave-5 was also completed with subW-3, because of how heavy & quick the sell-off was (I can't count the waves well).
I'll try to update tomorrow.

Note

I didn't expect this heavy Bitcoin drop. My expectation was a pullback for today to 7300-7400 for a 4th subwave, then finish this downtrend with one more drop to ~6900. We barely have a 4th wave here, so it's difficult to count.
I do believe that ~6640 may hold for now.

Note

If Bitcoin Bulls will fight back and attempt to push up, BTC could touch ~6700 again before attempting another wave up.
There is resistance @ ~6950.
Chart and better update coming in a bit.

Note

At the moment I'll have to consider this as the current possible count. My expectation was to 7350 > 6950 > Uptrend.
I've never seen such a truncated 4th wave (didn't even retrace to 0.236 Fibb).
Not sure if TA could have predicted this Flash Crash.

Possibility for #BTC to touch ~6650 then attempt a wave up to ~6950.
Market conditions are currently not safe for most trades.
I will be scalping, but this is not recommended, especially because uncertainty about hat "4th subwave".

I just saw while typing this a mini-flash dump on Bitfinex, so things are really still highly volatile & unsafe for most traders.
I still see possibility for reversal, but using analysis is tough with so many panic dumping right now.

Note

Sorry, forgot to include chart in last post:

Note

While #Bitcoin has so far touched, slightly bounced & kept above my 7650 mark said in this last post (linked), I won't enter any position right now, as 's current formation and position is hard to analyze.
twitter.com/AndrewEDavis/status/1005917937319010305

While I still see a good case for a bounce to at least ~7950, I don't like that #BTC's current formation slightly resembles a Bear Flag on some charts (zoomed in).
I'll wait for some decisive move in either direction.

Note

Still however... since I see several reasons why I think BTC shouldn't drop lower than 6600 right now, I think I'll go ahead and place a long order, or look for good entry opportunity. Will place safely sized orders and tight stop-loss.

(Typos in last post: 6950*, 6650*)

Note

I'm not sitting in Long or Short position at the moment.
(Just did many small scalps in the past 2-3 hrs, account is up 5%)

6650 which I said should hold, still continues to hold for now. However, I'm still concerned that this pattern resembles a Bear Flag forming.

I do see some potential for to push up to ~7000, but I also see a good chance of it falling to ~7350 range.

I think that between now and the next 3-5 hours we should get an answer. If it completes as an ABCDE, it may well be a Bear Flag.

Note

Still no decisive answer for #BTC's next move.
Based on Support & Indicators (weakening with time), BTC may be able to bounce to ~7000.
However based on wave-count, BTC seems to be setting up for another drop.
My guess, BTC is likely to drop again at this point, to ~7350 range.

Note

Sorry, typo again..
"My guess, BTC is likely to drop again at this point, to ~6350* range."

Note

Hoping to see some Bitcoin movement soon after one last small push to 6780 (Bitfinex) / 6790 (BitMex).
(Edit: BTC just made the push in the middle of me posting).
I think we may see movement soon.

Note

BTC has finally moved.
As I maintained in last posts, "Still no decisive answer for BTC's next move"; the next direction was not very clear, although it did seem a bit more Bearish to me by count.
I recommend caution in going Long here. I'm not sure that this is a true pump.

The safer thing would be to Short where you think is the top of this move.
I had an upside target of ~7000, possibly it could get above, but I also see chance of it not reaching that.
I do see some chance of this being some large ABCDE correction and could be near end.

Note

As mentioned in my last post, I advise caution, as this may not be a true short-term uptrend/reversal for #Bitcoin.
I see an apparent ABCDE count & there is resistance at ~7000.
As the overall trend is still down, it's risky to go Long here.
Shorting at the top is safer.

I was expecting a reaction/movement at my ~6790 point, regardless of direction.
As soon as eventually broke that ~6790 mark, it shot up as a Mini-pump.

Note

Since this Circled structure is messy for interpretation, I also see this possibility.
If price doesn't fall more rapidly upon crossing 6790, there could be strength for one more wave up to ~7000
Overall trend is still Down, caution staying in Long
I've been scalping these waves.

For over a day now, I've maintained ~7000 as my upside target in case of a bounce from that last bottom.
I still don't see BTC breaking much past this level before dropping further.

Note

Bitcoin retraced right to my 6790 mark and is showing some signs of bounce.
Filled my Long orders at that mark, exited Shorts. Preparing stop-losses.
Looking to see if BTC can manage another wave up to ~6950.
Some risk in this play as BTC isn't very strong right now.

Note

Be cautious in Long position here (if you are).

Note

I've exited Long positions for now, in profit (entered in & out, Longs & Shorts on the waves).
I'm not most confident of the recent movements & that there is another wave up.
Will observe out for a bit and consider re-entry, or simply wait to short when I believe I've found the top.

Note

Over the last ~30 minutes, I wasn't liking 's movement as Bullish for another wave up. I see this as a potential count where the short uptrend we had could be over.
It's also possible that we are on subwave-2 of another wave up.
Seems risky to stay Long, so I exited in profit.

I may still consider a quick scalp re-entry if BTC shows life very soon.
However if it breaks below my ~6790 mark, I'll likely enter Short.
Current downside target may be in the 6400's range.

Note

I gave the warning of likely incoming drop & wave-count, assuming that Bitcoin's brief uptrend has ended. I exited Longs just in time in profits.
Said that if BTC drops below 6790, we are going down, & I will enter Shorts.
My drop zone estimate is ~6500 range.

Note

There is also a "chance" that this Bear Flag isn't yet completed and could take another wave up before falling and breaking below the Flag.
I think this is less likely to happen, but not impossible and should be kept in mind in case price does not resume falling soon.

Note

I've exited my Short positions with nice profits.
Bitcoin followed my main count so far.
Maybe BTC can get a little lower, however I don't like the slow movement and prefer to exit in sure profits than try catching the exact bottom this time (and risk losses in case of strong bounce).

Note

So my Bitcoin drop target didn't hold for very long. Still was a successful/profitable call for overnight Short from the top I called.
It's possible for BTC to tumble further before a relief bounce. Decent chances of getting to ~6350 or lower soon.

Note

I'm not in a position right now.
Maybe we see a small ABC correction, maybe not and Bitcoin can go up.
I'll sit things out (also need to catch up on some stuff) and let things settle a little.

Good trades for the day, don't want to Fomo in when uncertain.
If an ABC forms, I may enter Shorts.

Note

So far #Bitcoin moving as I thought it might.
Update coming soon.

Note

As this post has gotten very long, I've created a new post to continue updates.

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter for more timely updates: twitter.com/AndrewEDavis

Bitcoin's Bottom: 6100-5900 in 8-16 days

AndrewEDavis

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

AndrewEDavis

Also on: