BTC-Out of Gas
Updated
Too much of the world's surprise, BTC Got a Big shot FOMO pumped into its veins. Are emotions are fickle. All that matters is supply and demand. I am not doing much with BTC right now, because I am still fairly convinced that we have not gone through a real consolidation phase to end this bear. We did go lower, but it was only for a few months, and there was no capitulation while it was down there. We blew through 6k as if we didn't consolidate there for almost a year; that was not expected in my analysis. I still do think that the possibility of this being another big bull trap is very possible. There are many assets that people generally consider to be negatively correlated to the stock market. Bonds and Gold, for example, some would try to say BTC as well. I fully expect these assets to get an initial bull run toward the beginning of this bear market in stocks, but then after this initial buying amongst these "risk off" assets then I believe they will be sold down throughout a bear market in stocks because there will likely be a lot of money needed to cover many peoples losses in their bullish long term positions or margin calls, or just to eat a darn dinner.
I think that it is important to figure out your own order of operations as to which assets are actually driving the market. In my opinion that would be the US Stock Market. Considering where the stock market is we can imagine bonds, gold and BTC getting initial inflows of money as people try to derisk their portfolios with the very Dangerous Stock charts setups that we currently have. If you are a BTC trader I strongly suggest you diversify into other markets. Personally, I enjoy trading BTC, FX, and Stocks; by using Technical Analysis + Arbitrage + Correlations you can get pretty far in all three markets all while diversifying your risk so that you can manage margin much easier.
We must get a very good idea of what's going on in the global market in order to trade any asset well. Whatever the assets your trading it's affected directly by overall market conditions
In BTC, 4hr, we see that we have had a few high volume candles putting in tops on this ascending wedge pattern. Volume is declining and It just looks almost perfectly ripe for this pattern to start breaking down. OR maybe it says within these red lines for a little longer and makes this pattern more mature. It also hit the first fib extension of its massive impulse down and is currently using that level as horizontal support. We have bearish divergence since the beginning of this ascending wedge/channel on the 4 hr RSI.
BTC CAN STILL HIT NEW LOWS.
If you're not following the stock market and what is happening in the world economies then you will be tricked many times. I update SPY often so please follow those updates and start to learn how these markets are highly correlated.
I think that it is important to figure out your own order of operations as to which assets are actually driving the market. In my opinion that would be the US Stock Market. Considering where the stock market is we can imagine bonds, gold and BTC getting initial inflows of money as people try to derisk their portfolios with the very Dangerous Stock charts setups that we currently have. If you are a BTC trader I strongly suggest you diversify into other markets. Personally, I enjoy trading BTC, FX, and Stocks; by using Technical Analysis + Arbitrage + Correlations you can get pretty far in all three markets all while diversifying your risk so that you can manage margin much easier.
We must get a very good idea of what's going on in the global market in order to trade any asset well. Whatever the assets your trading it's affected directly by overall market conditions
In BTC, 4hr, we see that we have had a few high volume candles putting in tops on this ascending wedge pattern. Volume is declining and It just looks almost perfectly ripe for this pattern to start breaking down. OR maybe it says within these red lines for a little longer and makes this pattern more mature. It also hit the first fib extension of its massive impulse down and is currently using that level as horizontal support. We have bearish divergence since the beginning of this ascending wedge/channel on the 4 hr RSI.
BTC CAN STILL HIT NEW LOWS.
If you're not following the stock market and what is happening in the world economies then you will be tricked many times. I update SPY often so please follow those updates and start to learn how these markets are highly correlated.
Note
Ascending Wedge into resistance. Volume low and there is just something in the air tonight that smells of distant storms. And wow, BTC on the 4 HR looks just like SPX on the 30min. DIstribution?
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