BTC Macro Outlook
BTC has done well this year so far. I've long said, Bitcoin is the markets most sensitive liquidity gauge. We're likely to see some 'hiccups' in Global Liquidity Q3/Q4 this year (12mo Money Supply RoC tanking, TGA about to 'refill', Rates Rising, China 'ReOpening' flop, etc etc)... So that begs the question; What to expect for BTC over the next 6 months?
A) BTC Closes on Weekly over the Kijun, after putting in a Bullish Div on Oscis. This is also a Close over a Monthly Bearish Open ("Bull" Line, an Al Brooks theory / trapped traders).
B) BTC re-tests the "Bull" Line, as well as the ATH Weekly Forecast Line, along with the Kijun; some very nice confluence. It then proceeds to rocket higher.
Since then, we've chopped along sideways. Now where to from here? Much of that depends on Global Liquidity, as mentioned above. If markets continue to climb this "wall of worry", and we see BTC Close above the new Forecast Line just above price, the top of the Cloud is the next likely stop.
D) Is the next target if we see a Weekly Close above the Cloud. It's where the Monthly Kijun sits, as well as the Forecast Line from March '22 High, Monthly ATH Forecast Line (Red), a Flat in the Weekly SSB; Just LOTS of confluence in this zone - Call it 40-48k.
If on the other hand, we wick up into the Forecast Line just above price, and reject, the cluster at C becomes a very likely target.
C) Cluster has our Weekly and Monthly Forecast Lines off the Post ATH Low (~~15k), the above mentioned "Bull" Line, and our March '23 Low Forecast Line, again, LOTS of confluence.
Should the cluster at C fail to hold, we've likely found ourselves in a Global Liquidity Crisis / Global Recession / Global Depression type environment, and sub 15k is incoming, perhaps even sub 12k, and the world has bigger concerns than the price of BTC.
As always, good luck, have fun, practice solid risk management.
A) BTC Closes on Weekly over the Kijun, after putting in a Bullish Div on Oscis. This is also a Close over a Monthly Bearish Open ("Bull" Line, an Al Brooks theory / trapped traders).
B) BTC re-tests the "Bull" Line, as well as the ATH Weekly Forecast Line, along with the Kijun; some very nice confluence. It then proceeds to rocket higher.
Since then, we've chopped along sideways. Now where to from here? Much of that depends on Global Liquidity, as mentioned above. If markets continue to climb this "wall of worry", and we see BTC Close above the new Forecast Line just above price, the top of the Cloud is the next likely stop.
D) Is the next target if we see a Weekly Close above the Cloud. It's where the Monthly Kijun sits, as well as the Forecast Line from March '22 High, Monthly ATH Forecast Line (Red), a Flat in the Weekly SSB; Just LOTS of confluence in this zone - Call it 40-48k.
If on the other hand, we wick up into the Forecast Line just above price, and reject, the cluster at C becomes a very likely target.
C) Cluster has our Weekly and Monthly Forecast Lines off the Post ATH Low (~~15k), the above mentioned "Bull" Line, and our March '23 Low Forecast Line, again, LOTS of confluence.
Should the cluster at C fail to hold, we've likely found ourselves in a Global Liquidity Crisis / Global Recession / Global Depression type environment, and sub 15k is incoming, perhaps even sub 12k, and the world has bigger concerns than the price of BTC.
As always, good luck, have fun, practice solid risk management.
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