2024 Bear Market Rally (2018 -19 Fib & Historical Analysis)
We are still waiting for our weekly close to come in, however thought I would share a quick idea looking at our current price action from a cycles perspective. Speculating the current move from January 2023 to now as the swing top of the '2024 Bear Market Recovery Rally', and comparing the 2018-2019 bear bull cycle to our current (using fib retracement).
Key Assumptions
* April 2021 as the bull market cycle high
* We are still waiting for the weekly candle to close (may invalidate above thesis if recovers for the close)
Key Current Observations
* Current Weekly Candle has swept the 0.786 Fib Retracement with very similar behavior currently to what we observed in June 2019 (which marketed the swing top of the bear market recover rally).
Points 6 & 7 resemble historic comparisons to moves post point 5 in the 2019 cycle.
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
* While there are many indicators showing BTC is very much in the over price territory, a similar point (Jun 2016) while there was a substantial pull back it was short lived and the market used it to rest and shrug off sellers to push the market onward.
* March 2020 Black Swan (COVID Pandemic)
Key Assumptions
* April 2021 as the bull market cycle high
* We are still waiting for the weekly candle to close (may invalidate above thesis if recovers for the close)
Key Current Observations
* Current Weekly Candle has swept the 0.786 Fib Retracement with very similar behavior currently to what we observed in June 2019 (which marketed the swing top of the bear market recover rally).
Points 6 & 7 resemble historic comparisons to moves post point 5 in the 2019 cycle.
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
* While there are many indicators showing BTC is very much in the over price territory, a similar point (Jun 2016) while there was a substantial pull back it was short lived and the market used it to rest and shrug off sellers to push the market onward.
* March 2020 Black Swan (COVID Pandemic)
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