📊 BTC/USD – 1H Chart Analysis | Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish Trade Setup
🧭 Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) on the 1-hour chart shows a matured uptrend reaching exhaustion, marked by a clear double bottom breakout, followed by a rising wedge formation, and now signaling a potential bearish reversal. This setup presents an opportunity for swing traders to capitalize on the shift from bullish momentum to possible downside retracement.
🔍 1. Pattern Identification & Price Structure Analysis
✅ Double Bottom Reversal (Bottom 1 & 2)
Formed around April 7–9, the pattern signaled a bullish trend reversal from the previous sell-off.
The "W" shape bottomed near $78,000, and the breakout above the neckline confirmed the reversal.
This breakout led to a strong upward move toward the $86,000 resistance area.
⚠️ Rising Wedge Formation (Bearish Pattern)
After the bullish breakout, price began forming higher highs and higher lows, but with converging trendlines, creating a Rising Wedge.
This is a classic bearish reversal pattern, where buying pressure begins to fade even as price continues rising.
The wedge began to lose bullish momentum as price approached the horizontal resistance zone between $85,500–$86,500.
The break below the wedge’s lower trendline confirms the potential for a trend reversal or corrective move downward.
📏 2. Key Support and Resistance Zones
🟥 Resistance Zone ($85,500–$86,500)
This area was tested multiple times but failed to break.
Sellers consistently pushed price back down with bearish wicks and rejection candles.
This zone aligns with previous structure highs and acts as a strong supply area.
🟩 Support Zone ($82,500–$83,000)
Previously a consolidation base and current reaction zone.
A breakdown below this will likely accelerate bearish momentum.
TP1 lies near the top of this support, where minor bounces may occur.
🟦 Major Support (TP2 zone: $79,280)
A structurally significant support level aligned with previous bottoms.
Likely to act as a final bearish target if sellers take full control.
🎯 3. Trade Setup Details
Element Description
📉 Trade Type Short (Sell)
🎯 Entry Zone After rising wedge breakdown ~ $83,000
❌ Stop Loss Above wedge top: ~$86,000
✅ Take Profit 1 $82,542 – near minor support
✅ Take Profit 2 $79,280 – major previous low
📈 4. Price Action and Momentum Insights
As price advanced in the wedge, momentum began declining, reflected in smaller bullish candles and failure to maintain higher highs.
The loss of parabolic curvature (illustrated with the curved blue line) suggests exhaustion of buying pressure.
Volume (not shown, but often evident in live charts) likely tapered off—another sign of trend weakness before reversal.
The wedge break was confirmed with a strong bearish candle close below trendline support.
📌 5. Confluence Factors Supporting the Bearish Setup
Bearish Rising Wedge pattern – a reliable reversal signal.
Clear horizontal resistance rejection at $86,000 area.
Double bottom rally exhausted its momentum.
Price broke trendline support.
Room to fall to strong support targets ($82,500, then $79,280).
Potential Fibonacci retracement levels (not drawn but implied) support these targets.
🔑 Summary: Trade Idea
After a strong rally driven by a confirmed double bottom pattern, BTC/USD has entered a weakening bullish phase marked by a Rising Wedge formation. With the wedge now broken to the downside and resistance holding firm, a high-probability short opportunity has emerged. Traders can look to short on pullbacks, aiming for the $82,542 and $79,280 levels, while managing risk with a stop above $86,000.
🧭 Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) on the 1-hour chart shows a matured uptrend reaching exhaustion, marked by a clear double bottom breakout, followed by a rising wedge formation, and now signaling a potential bearish reversal. This setup presents an opportunity for swing traders to capitalize on the shift from bullish momentum to possible downside retracement.
🔍 1. Pattern Identification & Price Structure Analysis
✅ Double Bottom Reversal (Bottom 1 & 2)
Formed around April 7–9, the pattern signaled a bullish trend reversal from the previous sell-off.
The "W" shape bottomed near $78,000, and the breakout above the neckline confirmed the reversal.
This breakout led to a strong upward move toward the $86,000 resistance area.
⚠️ Rising Wedge Formation (Bearish Pattern)
After the bullish breakout, price began forming higher highs and higher lows, but with converging trendlines, creating a Rising Wedge.
This is a classic bearish reversal pattern, where buying pressure begins to fade even as price continues rising.
The wedge began to lose bullish momentum as price approached the horizontal resistance zone between $85,500–$86,500.
The break below the wedge’s lower trendline confirms the potential for a trend reversal or corrective move downward.
📏 2. Key Support and Resistance Zones
🟥 Resistance Zone ($85,500–$86,500)
This area was tested multiple times but failed to break.
Sellers consistently pushed price back down with bearish wicks and rejection candles.
This zone aligns with previous structure highs and acts as a strong supply area.
🟩 Support Zone ($82,500–$83,000)
Previously a consolidation base and current reaction zone.
A breakdown below this will likely accelerate bearish momentum.
TP1 lies near the top of this support, where minor bounces may occur.
🟦 Major Support (TP2 zone: $79,280)
A structurally significant support level aligned with previous bottoms.
Likely to act as a final bearish target if sellers take full control.
🎯 3. Trade Setup Details
Element Description
📉 Trade Type Short (Sell)
🎯 Entry Zone After rising wedge breakdown ~ $83,000
❌ Stop Loss Above wedge top: ~$86,000
✅ Take Profit 1 $82,542 – near minor support
✅ Take Profit 2 $79,280 – major previous low
📈 4. Price Action and Momentum Insights
As price advanced in the wedge, momentum began declining, reflected in smaller bullish candles and failure to maintain higher highs.
The loss of parabolic curvature (illustrated with the curved blue line) suggests exhaustion of buying pressure.
Volume (not shown, but often evident in live charts) likely tapered off—another sign of trend weakness before reversal.
The wedge break was confirmed with a strong bearish candle close below trendline support.
📌 5. Confluence Factors Supporting the Bearish Setup
Bearish Rising Wedge pattern – a reliable reversal signal.
Clear horizontal resistance rejection at $86,000 area.
Double bottom rally exhausted its momentum.
Price broke trendline support.
Room to fall to strong support targets ($82,500, then $79,280).
Potential Fibonacci retracement levels (not drawn but implied) support these targets.
🔑 Summary: Trade Idea
After a strong rally driven by a confirmed double bottom pattern, BTC/USD has entered a weakening bullish phase marked by a Rising Wedge formation. With the wedge now broken to the downside and resistance holding firm, a high-probability short opportunity has emerged. Traders can look to short on pullbacks, aiming for the $82,542 and $79,280 levels, while managing risk with a stop above $86,000.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.