BTC/USD: Where Do We Go From Here? Let History Tell Us
Updated
[BTC Analysis: Are we about to make a comeback? Not so fast.]
Here's what I'm looking at with BTC now:
1.) RSI 14 is sitting at around 36. Historically, we've seen this RSI bottom out at between 19-27.
2.) RVI is still negative.
3.) A few days ago, MACD crossed negative for the first time since September 2017, and is showing no sign of reversal yet.
4.) DMI is negative.
5.) We have broken through the Ichimoku cloud resistance on the daily chart. This hasn't happened since July 2017.
6.) We also broken the 100 day EMA clearly (not just a wick).
Putting it all together:
> Numbers 1-4 on the list above tell me that the daily trend is still very week and showing no signs of turning around yet.
So how low do we go? Well, no one can say for sure but what we CAN do is look at history as it often repeats itself:
> Numbers 5-6 can give us an idea of where we might land, if history were to repeat itself:
*Since 2016, every single time BTC has broken through the Ichimoku resistance on the daily chart, it has continued to either touch the 200 day EMA or get very close.
*Also, whenever we've broken clearly through the 100 day EMA, we tend to continue lower.
*The 200 day EMA happens to be very close to the 61.8 fib retracement drawn from March 2017 when BTC began this monster run.
So what does that tell me? That tells me we're not out of the woods yet and if I had to guess then I'd say we're headed to around $8200-$8500. Is that a guarantee? No. But that's what I'm gonna be looking for and will adjust my plan daily as more information presents itself.
Here's what I'm looking at with BTC now:
1.) RSI 14 is sitting at around 36. Historically, we've seen this RSI bottom out at between 19-27.
2.) RVI is still negative.
3.) A few days ago, MACD crossed negative for the first time since September 2017, and is showing no sign of reversal yet.
4.) DMI is negative.
5.) We have broken through the Ichimoku cloud resistance on the daily chart. This hasn't happened since July 2017.
6.) We also broken the 100 day EMA clearly (not just a wick).
Putting it all together:
> Numbers 1-4 on the list above tell me that the daily trend is still very week and showing no signs of turning around yet.
So how low do we go? Well, no one can say for sure but what we CAN do is look at history as it often repeats itself:
> Numbers 5-6 can give us an idea of where we might land, if history were to repeat itself:
*Since 2016, every single time BTC has broken through the Ichimoku resistance on the daily chart, it has continued to either touch the 200 day EMA or get very close.
*Also, whenever we've broken clearly through the 100 day EMA, we tend to continue lower.
*The 200 day EMA happens to be very close to the 61.8 fib retracement drawn from March 2017 when BTC began this monster run.
So what does that tell me? That tells me we're not out of the woods yet and if I had to guess then I'd say we're headed to around $8200-$8500. Is that a guarantee? No. But that's what I'm gonna be looking for and will adjust my plan daily as more information presents itself.
Trade closed: target reached
Trade closed. Target reached.
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