I have read different speculations on what might happen to the price of Bitcoin if the stock market were to crash. I am going to answer this using statistics, correlations, and examples of events from market history. This post will not speculate on the current nor future price movements of Bitcoin and Stocks; only their connection. I will be using the Tradingview Bitcoin Index 
BTCUSD and the S&P500 Index ETF 
SPY
What is a "Crash?"
I use a common definition of a stock market "crash" as a short or long duration decline of -30% or more. I distinguish this from "correction" which I define as a -5% to -10% movement. I'll look at the true crashes but also include significant corrections for comparison.
Time Range
I chose the time range from 2014 to present for this study. Bitcoin did not reach a comparable level of maturity nor public awareness until after the 2013 bull cycle. Also the 2013 Stock Market was ridiculously bullish.
How Often Do Bad Weeks Line Up?
I took particularly down weeks for Stocks, -2.5% or more, and compared them to the same week for Bitcoin. 2 out of 3 Weeks where the stock market was down big... Bitcoin was down big. Furthermore, the average magnitude of Bitcoin's down move was more than twice that of Stocks.
How Correlated is Bitcoin to Stocks?
The Correlation Coefficient measure the way in which two instruments move together. A value 1.0 means that they move identically up and down while a value of -1.0 means they move exactly opposite. The correlation of Bitcoin to Stocks varies from week to week. However, Bitcoin is far more often and to a greater degree positively correlated to Stocks.
Historical Crashes
Now we will go into some narratives around historic events surrounding large down moves in Stocks and how Bitcoin reacted.
2021
2021 was a bad year for both Stocks and Bitcoin. The decline of Bitcoin began prior to the then All Time High of Stocks but both decidedly went through a bear market together. Of note; while Stocks declined -27.47% from the high to low over that same period Bitcoin declined -61.83%.
COVID
COVID was a major but short "risk-off" event in both markets. Stocks declined -35.45% from prior high to subsequent low and Bitcoin declined -63.09% from its respective high and low.
2018
Going back further in time we can look a less severe Stocks declines in 2018. The 2018 market narrative was dominated by rate decisions with the Fed raising rates 4 times that year. The initial correction at the beginning of the year happened within Bitcoin's decline from its 2017 All Time High. Within this context while Stocks gave up -11.76% Bitcoin fell by more than half.
Later in the year as Bitcoin began to trade in a very tight range Stocks had a -20.47% decline. While the two did not coincide in their start times it is within the context of the longer Stocks crash that Bitcoin broke lower for another -53.62%
Conclusion and Analysis
I want to note here that Bitcoin was created AFTER "the big one" of 2008. There has never in Bitcoin's history been a true multi-year bear market for Stocks to compare. However, we have ample evidence to suggest that given a crash in Stocks it is a near certainty that Bitcoin will decline as well to a magnitude of double or more.
This happens because the market as a whole views Bitcoin as a risk asset with much higher volatility than Stocks as a whole. When there is ample liquidity and positive sentiment they both perform well. When liquidity is constrained and there is negative sentiment they both perform poorly. Liquidity and speculation are what drive them both. This connection has not changed in recent times and has likely increased due to the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF and publicly traded companies exposing their share prices to the volatility of Bitcoin.
Trade wisely.
BTCUSD and the S&P500 Index ETF SPY What is a "Crash?"
I use a common definition of a stock market "crash" as a short or long duration decline of -30% or more. I distinguish this from "correction" which I define as a -5% to -10% movement. I'll look at the true crashes but also include significant corrections for comparison.
Time Range
I chose the time range from 2014 to present for this study. Bitcoin did not reach a comparable level of maturity nor public awareness until after the 2013 bull cycle. Also the 2013 Stock Market was ridiculously bullish.
How Often Do Bad Weeks Line Up?
I took particularly down weeks for Stocks, -2.5% or more, and compared them to the same week for Bitcoin. 2 out of 3 Weeks where the stock market was down big... Bitcoin was down big. Furthermore, the average magnitude of Bitcoin's down move was more than twice that of Stocks.
How Correlated is Bitcoin to Stocks?
The Correlation Coefficient measure the way in which two instruments move together. A value 1.0 means that they move identically up and down while a value of -1.0 means they move exactly opposite. The correlation of Bitcoin to Stocks varies from week to week. However, Bitcoin is far more often and to a greater degree positively correlated to Stocks.
- At the extreme Bitcoin is more highly correlated to Stocks than it is ever negatively correlated (0.93 versus -0.76)
- Bitcoin is move often positively correlated to stocks. 75% of weeks Bitcoin and Stocks are positively correlated
- 0.70 is considered "high correlation" and 33% of weeks exhibit high correlation
- On the contrary, less than 2% of weeks are ever highly negatively correlated
Historical Crashes
Now we will go into some narratives around historic events surrounding large down moves in Stocks and how Bitcoin reacted.
2021
2021 was a bad year for both Stocks and Bitcoin. The decline of Bitcoin began prior to the then All Time High of Stocks but both decidedly went through a bear market together. Of note; while Stocks declined -27.47% from the high to low over that same period Bitcoin declined -61.83%.
COVID
COVID was a major but short "risk-off" event in both markets. Stocks declined -35.45% from prior high to subsequent low and Bitcoin declined -63.09% from its respective high and low.
2018
Going back further in time we can look a less severe Stocks declines in 2018. The 2018 market narrative was dominated by rate decisions with the Fed raising rates 4 times that year. The initial correction at the beginning of the year happened within Bitcoin's decline from its 2017 All Time High. Within this context while Stocks gave up -11.76% Bitcoin fell by more than half.
Later in the year as Bitcoin began to trade in a very tight range Stocks had a -20.47% decline. While the two did not coincide in their start times it is within the context of the longer Stocks crash that Bitcoin broke lower for another -53.62%
Conclusion and Analysis
I want to note here that Bitcoin was created AFTER "the big one" of 2008. There has never in Bitcoin's history been a true multi-year bear market for Stocks to compare. However, we have ample evidence to suggest that given a crash in Stocks it is a near certainty that Bitcoin will decline as well to a magnitude of double or more.
This happens because the market as a whole views Bitcoin as a risk asset with much higher volatility than Stocks as a whole. When there is ample liquidity and positive sentiment they both perform well. When liquidity is constrained and there is negative sentiment they both perform poorly. Liquidity and speculation are what drive them both. This connection has not changed in recent times and has likely increased due to the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF and publicly traded companies exposing their share prices to the volatility of Bitcoin.
Trade wisely.
"Be to others the person you needed to meet 10 years ago"
Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
"Be to others the person you needed to meet 10 years ago"
Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.