Long

Bearish...One more time?

Updated

This is a continuation of a previous idea updated and with more accurate trendlines.

Per my previous idea, I talked about how I think the first hump and the second hump in the current Bitcoin cycle are actually one large hump split by a price dip that overshot and then snapped back to structure in a deep V movement. If true, then we are looking at the third hump, not the beginning of the next cycle that will take us to what everyone calls moon.

As shown, the upper long-term trend line has made creating the second spike on the hump impossible. This trend line has pushed back price 7 times in the past. The times it was broken, it required a lot of volume and momentum. Both are in short supply from the bulls right now. I think we will be coming down from this line very soon.

I included the trendlines from the previous bear run (backside of hump 2) that extend from the tip of the first hump to show how closely the last bull run stayed within them (slope, narrower at the top, wider at the bottom, etc.) . We can use this as a guide to how this bear run might look on the backside of the third hump if it occurs. The bottom should be very close. The top will be fleshed out by how long we stay in a sideways movement as of 7/30/18.

I expect another stair step action (down-retrace-down, etc.) as in the last bear run in 3-4 waves before hitting the bottom blue trendline and rounding off before the next large bull run begins.

According to my TA, Bitcoin should be close to bottoming out at about 5200 with one condition. The longer the sideways action now, during the stair stepping or at the bottom, the lower that price could get. And I would not rule out a spike or two dipping to 5000 or just below.

Remember, this is just my idea. Do your research, come to your own conclusions, and trade safely!

Previous idea:

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This will be my last comment until I am either proven right, or I am laughed off of Tradingview. Why didn't what I am calling the second hump come up and meet the trendline? Why the gap? The answer is in the 1 hour chart I posted before (see comment above). The 200MA beat the trendline to the price movement. Both are formidable resistances. Together, they are practically impassable. Well, they are both in action again this time. Only the trendline has beaten the 200MA to the price point this time.

Good luck out there!

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A good drop has occurred. Price dropped to 7850 (Coinbase) before starting pullback. Expect pullback to get up to about 8035 at the most before the next drop. I don't think there will be enough steam to retest the upper trendline. This next drop will hang on the 7700 to 7750 for a bar or so before landing a bar in the 7300-7370 area.

Do note that in the past, Bitcoin has had no problem shedding and gaining $200-1000 in a day. This $300 may seem like a small drop, but put that into perspective compared to the size this potential third hump and subsequent bear run. It is a small hump, so a $300 drop is a significant sign. But I would not take this as confirmation just yet.

Only if we get the pullback and another drop, I will consider this idea validated and will be buying the dips and selling the pullback tops until we bottom.

IF THIS IDEA IS CONFIRMED on this pullback and we get the next downward wave, and to restate in a different way, the bottom blue trendline is in a downward slope. The longer we linger on consolidation (go sideways), the lower the bottom price will get. I will update this idea once we have confirmation and will include an outer trendline for this bull run where I think the downward and pullback price action will be contained. This will also give us a better idea of a bottom figure. As of now, I think it will be 5200.

Do your research; trade safely.

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Feeling good about the current status on this idea. I am awaiting one last pullback that should be small (if it is not already occuring on a single candle), then I think disbelief will turn to acceptance and bears will take over for a short natural structural downtrend. This will be the last before the next major bull, so take heart.

Chart shows my confirmation points, downtrend boundaries and my anticipated price action. I expect to bottom out no later than the week of September 10-15. Target bottom price for me is 5280 on or about September 10-11. Could put a wick a bit lower, but I think this is very close. Pullbacks/consolidations could push on and poke out of the boundaries of the trendline due to bull presure. I would consider this is normal.

One other item worth mentioning. I don't expect alts like ETH, BCH, LTC, etc. to go as deep. They are already nearing their bottoming trendlines and I expect their price action to be slower in the downturn. Just my theory. The markets tend to laugh at theories, particularly the earlier you try to call them. In any case, this will be a good chance to pick up some last crypto bargains before the beginnings of what should be a great uptrend! Don't feel bad if you don't get the bottom price. These are already shaping up to be great prices on crypto. Getting another shot at prices a bit lower is just a bonus. If I sold you a car worth 20K in 4 months that you paid 7K for, are you really going to be upset that you didn't try to talk me down to 6K?

One disclaimer to this idea. News can always rock the markets. The SEC is still mulling over an ETF with an potential decision on August 16. This could be pushed until September. I personally think they will push it back. It could go even later if the SEC finds reason and can use loopholes to further the delay. Just this alone has the potential to snap the market deeper into bear downturn or if approved, snap it out of the downturn completely ahead of schedule. This coming month will be one to watch for sure.

As always, this is just my idea. Do your research, come to your own conclusions and trade with good risk management.

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Running as anticipated so far. Screenshot below. I have done the same for all the alts on Coinbase. It is probable that the prices on alts will dip deeper than I originally thought. Their pairings to Bitcoin are not gaining ground which means their prices in USD are falling at the same rate as Bitcoin. My bottom target prices for alts below:
Litecoin: $51
Ether: $305
Bitcoin Cash: $425

Stay safe out there!

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Price continues to be consistent with this idea. At this time, my only concern is the lower trendline. While pokeouts and pullbacks will be normal on the channel walls, if this continues to appear on the lower trendline, it may be in need of an angle adjustment. But the adjustment would not change the outcome enough to change the wave action prices or bottom price. Still tracking well.

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As info, while I did come up with this idea on my own and in a vacuum essentially, I want to give a nod to stevepuri who apparently saw this coming several weeks if not months ago. I saw a chart of his recently and he is on it.

Hats off to you, sir, and anyone else who saw this coming. My reasoning on this idea may be a little technically off, but I am just glad I saw the signs in time to pull longs down before the drop started.

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Last update for a few days. It should be mostly in sideways movement, perhaps some upward price spikes to 7700ish. Then another drop to the next level. It may be possible to scalp in this consolidation period. The up movement of price will cool off the RSI, etc. for the next drop.

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We'll, you can always count on the market to toss you curveballs. The downward momentum of Bitcoin has broken it out of the anticipated channel and it is running in a much steeper and narrower channel as marked below. That seems like a bad thing if you were looking for basement cheap cryptos whose prices move with bitcoin's. On the upside, you won't likely have to wait long. This is running rather fast. My target price is in the $5600-5700 range.

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Continued decline of price following within updated trendline.

In the event you have never noticed, every bear run has a familiar pattern on each step down. Without going into the whole thing (maybe a new idea post), each step down is a playout of the reversal pattern like you find at the bottom of the last two bear runs. They can be different in price variation and in time variation, but the pattern is always the same. It makes sense if you think about it as the psychology of the market is the same at every step down.

Early in a downturn, the pattern is nearly invisible on higher time frames. But once you look into the lower time frames, you can see a small reversal pattern played out. It normally gets easier to spot as the trend continues and the pattern gets larger possibly becoming visible on a higher time frame. The only difference between the pattern completion on each step and the final one of the reversal is in the final movement of the pattern; the final small dip of the pattern. Some liken it to a stop run. But it is your warning sign that the pattern is over. On the downtrend steps, there is the small dip, then back up. The buying effort is exhausted and you have a dump. But in the true reversal there is the small dip, then back up and the buying effort is supported. The rally begins.

The pattern can take several price forms and can be hard to recognize sometimes, but the price movements (up here, down there) are the same. Spotting the pattern and the small dip at the end will always let you know when the dump is coming...or when the rally will begin. Just be sure of your pattern count. I find it helpful to grab a copy of the entire bar pattern from the last reversal from the 2 hour chart, reduce the size to what you might expect in the current trend channel, and then look at the current price movement on the 15 minute chart. In this bear run, the pattern is much smaller than I am used to seeing it.

Next stop will likely be $6700 for a short spell, then to $6500 where we will be approaching the final phase of this bear run, or so I think.

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Funny that I would mention the reversal pattern in my last post and how it is played out on each step of the downturn. It played out last night, but as is in true crypto style, instead of getting the dump signal as expected, it gave a pump signal.

Unfortunately, no real volume came in behind it and the push was limited and short lived. At the top of the pump, a new reversal pattern was initiated (visible on the 3 min. time frame). On larger time frames, the pattern just emerged as bull flags, wedges, etc. But at the end of the pattern the dump signal emerged and price responded. This essentially equates to a failed reversal and the continuation of the downward trend. We'll see if it drops back into the channel or rides down just above it.

Area of concern for me is around the mid to low 6800s. Some are fixated on the support coming up from the last reversal (added to the chart). I think this is more psychological than what I would call a strong behavioral support. But it could hold back price movement as it seems to have already done once. I don't expect it to hold, but many are looking for a bounce here. I still expect the reversal pattern to start anew where ever the next support lies. If it is here, so be it. I'll be watching closely at the end of the pattern to where the market wants to go.

Looking for a stop at $6700, then on to $6500 in preparations for what could be only a couple more plays of the reversal pattern in this downturn, the last one ending in a new bull trend.

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It's nice to occasionally be right. We blew right through 6800 and landed on about 6700. New reversal pattern started. I think the pattern playout will run short, drop once more looking for a bottom price figure and for the reversal pattern to run once more. Hopefully, there will be a pump signal at the end and some volume to back it up.

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It is my belief that the major attempt at a reversal has started. The very start of the reversal pattern is visible on the 2 hour chart as of about 16 hours ago.

The down price spike you see in the area of $6125 is what I would say will be near bottom out price. I am fairly confident that the reversal will occur here. We won't have confirmation until a second test of this area, then a third that rounds out but won't likely go to the bottom price and will give either a buy or sell signal. With the current volume levels, I expect we will see buy support at that time.

Then we should have the next bull run. We'll see for how long. We still have the 200ma on the daily chart and the upper trend line to cross. Hopefully, bulls will have the momentum.

Good luck! Trade safe.

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My thoughts on the bottom alt prices as follows:
Ether: 350
Bitcoin Cash: 565
Litecoin: 61.40

Do your research and come to your own conclusions. These are just my ideas.

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Update of the reversal attempt progress. Second price spike down has been set. Hit about $6180 and recovered. There will be sideways travel, maybe a small boost in price as it moves right, and will likely cross the outer wall of the channel. There will be a dip in what may look like a bowl, then the moment of decision. Price will either go up and will get buy support for the next bull run, or it will go down and we will start the reversal attempt all over again.

I think there is enough volume now to sustain a break up, but if it does break down, it may get a little ugly. Next level of support will likely be around 5700-5800. Below that is sort of no mans land and definitley of great concern. My thought is that we are going up after today.

Good luck out there!

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Fractals. As I mentioned before, the price action is always that of a reversal attempt. Because the pattern is visible on most any time frame from 4 hours down, it can be hard to tell where you are. Such was the case for me in calling the reversal earlier. I was looking for the pattern to be smaller due to the size of the channel the bears were running in. It took me by surprise to see that the pattern was really being built on a much larger scale.

We are now in the final hours of the reversal trend very visible on the 4 hour chart. If you use the Wyckoff method, we have had the bottom set (spring) by the last large spike down that lingered at the bottom for what was hours instead of a quick hit as in several previous reversals this year. $5900 was about the lowest spike.

The market makers have tested the bottom in a final set of large, but smaller than the spring spike over the last day and a half. The selloff was met with buy pressure, a validating sign for market makers who then can choose to buy into their positions in a final accumulation. That accumulation is happening now as evident by the slight increase in price after the last test dip.

All that is left is a break above some lingering trend lines. This will become confirmation for more conservative large buyers that bulls have strength and numbers. They and other buyers that have already bought the lower tests will buy or strengthen their positions, the match that will spark the fire.

During the spring and test, price drags, is pushed down, is slowly brought up and trend lines are broken down. Having a sense of security that bulls are weak, bears who think they are winning the battle open shorts...a lot of shorts.

Confirmation of a successful test and the breakage of a few trend lines will start the buying. FOMO will then begin as everyone hungry for the bull market to begin but have missed the signs or were waiting for confirmation will buy and the price is off to the races.

The price will go higher and higher until stops for the shorts are hit or the truth of the situation causes bears to close shorts...and become bulls by buying. Price gets ridiculous. Folks will start talking about how the RSI needs to cool off, 50% fib pullbacks coming, etc. Yet price will continue to defy gravity.

Two roadblocks to watch if we break bull. The original bear channel will likely have an effect on price. If there is enough bull momentum, it may not even show as a blip. Or it could cause a price rejection and we go back down again. The second is the long-term blue trend line overhead and it's backup, the 200MA on the daily chart. As I have mentioned before, both are formidable. It will require volume and momentum. If we can pass those, we are into a new frontier of a larger bull run.

Do your homework. Be ready for anything.

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Getting close now. Looking for a break up with one caveat. We definitely have our spring and it looks as a test was done as well. But I think Bitcoin likes to smack the trendline with the test. The stab down we just had could suffice for the test, or we may be in for one additional swift move down to hit the lower trendline once more.

One more comment. I am surprised at how many folks on the forum don't think the price action has been bullish. I will concede that is has not been terribly decisive, but still relatively bullish. The trend of this reversal has been clearly on an incline, every key dip was met with equal rejection, and a a few sideways trend lines have been broken. What's not bullish about that? Just an observation.

Trade safe!

//tradingview.com/chart/mWAtp9wV/

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Sorry...chart link off above.

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CRUD! Snapshot, idiot! Snapshot.

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Lat post on this idea. As is the true nature of this market, I was right in my call, but not necessarily for all the right reasons. I learned a lot on this particular run and will keep on learning. But I will share some of my blunders on this run in a new chart called "I was right...sort of"

We have a fragile bull run going with a lot of hurdles. It could be broken up at any time in the next few weeks and we head to a new low level of support, probably in the 5700-5800 region. I don't think this will happen. But you can't discount it. You have to stay ready to trade it.

While there was an extra unexpected fractal cycle added for good measure in the reversal pattern, it did finally break up. Several trend lines have already been broken, but bigger ones lay ahead. I don't see this being a big bank bull run yet. It may go up, but sideways for a while before picking up slope.

Trade carefully.

andoverg

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