Just a theory - BTC Extended Timeframes coming into effect
Updated
As I explained in an earlier post, we noticed BTC may as well be expanding by between 1.61 - 1.68x each halving. There is also a drop in acceleration (rise in value). We may have missed it as they fit so well into the 4 year cycle theory that currently exists. Correction to 2nd peak, this is set for JAN of 2023, not FEB of 2023, but 1 month is not a focus here, it is more so just to see how accurate this can be.
But Here is a model drawn out to scale of a current theory I am working, which supports a 2nd 2 peak cycle event, (The first one not being 64k). This is only a secondary theory at this time, the principle theory is taht 64k was the primary first peak of the 2nd 2 peak cycle. Extended Timefames must be brought into play.
But Here is a model drawn out to scale of a current theory I am working, which supports a 2nd 2 peak cycle event, (The first one not being 64k). This is only a secondary theory at this time, the principle theory is taht 64k was the primary first peak of the 2nd 2 peak cycle. Extended Timefames must be brought into play.
Note
Prev blurb this post refers to- (missing pictures, will give context if asked):Bitcoin Timeframe to Next Peak Analysis (This is based off of large assumptions)
I have been looking into at what multiple Bitcoin has been decelerating (taking longer time to reach next peak), and on the HODL Waves chart, it became an obvious pattern.
Once Measured, it seems to be between 1.6 - 1.68x (per cycle). (Super exciting if it were 1.618, but its slightly off, so what - fractals both speed up and slow down).
My 2nd theory, is that we have a 2 peak larger pattern, that includes a double peak [(2013: Peak 1 - 2), and (2017)], and my theory is that this repeats. Just on a larger scale.
I noticed that the timeframes are longer, and the patterns seem to be on point. For instance, on the 2nd picture, I drew a red box around the areas where I thought we may still be.
I measured this new area, and the old one. The old area, bump 1 - bump 2 (prior to peak 1 of 2013) was from Jan 2012, to August 2012 = 8 Months.
I decided to measure the distance between our last bump up, and the one we just hit at 64k. This was from July 2019 - April 14, 2021. 21 months. So I break out calculator.
We have 2 different halvings we crossed.
So lets calculate 8 * 1.618 = 12.96, and again 12.94 * 1.618 = 20.94 months.
This is VERY accurately calculating the run we just had from our last bump up (last bump after 2017 peak).
IF I am correct, if we look closely at that bump 2, it has a pattern of flattening out, before 8 months takes it up to peak 1 of 2013. 21 months from April 2021, is Jan 2023. This is what I expect this bull run to hit just for peak1.
It wont peak this december, it will peak next one (december-january ish).
IF I am right... the 49 days it took from Aug 16 2012 - October 4, 2012 == 49 * 1.618 * 1.618 = 128 days. Our last peak : April 14, 2021 + 128 days = August 20, 2021.
I am obviously skeptical. BUT that being said. IF We peak out on Aug 20, 2021, and make a run back down near 30k after that... I am going to start getting very excited about the possibility.
And correct me if I am wrong, but the pattern back in 2013, it tops out Oct 4, and then bottoms out again on October 27, 2013.
If we took 23 days * 1.618 * 1.618 = 60.2 days. So IF it does top out on August 20, 2021, the pattern should bottom out 60 days later.. October 19, 2021. That will be our lowest point going forward.
I gave enough specifics to get completely TORN apart. Let's see how this brave, foolish synopsis goes.
Cheers!
Note
Photos in above referenceimgur.com/a/GNpB4fl
Note
So far pretty accurate. Been about 1-2 weeks off on both the high, and the recent low. Jan-March 2023 = Highest Point.
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