Updated

Bitcoin Week nr. 12

After last weeks drop we are now trading inside the demand zone from the recent run up. The range high and low are exactly the same, a daily close above or below range should reveal the short term direction.

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Lets zoom in on some previous PA, visible here is that when bitcoin closes above a range on a daily and holds above it on the next daily candles it will most likely continue in that direction. Also look for a possible retest (wick inside the range but a close above the range high/low)

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This leaves us with two possible scenarios for a swing trade. Close above the top or bottom, trigger for entry would be the first daily close. With a preferred entry at the retest of the top/bottom side of the range.

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Targets up are:
T1 retest of W and wick of last range at ca. 6400
T2 supply zone at 7000
T3 breakaway cme gap and pob at 7900

Targets downside are:
T1 Demand zone at ca. 4000
T2 '19 low at 3100

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On the 4h wee see the different zones inside the range. We have lot of buy wicks in the 5150 area and lots of sell wicks above the 5600 area.

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We are also resting on the 200 ma/ema. A close on the weekly above would be a point in the bulls court, close below vice versa.

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Another possibility is a retrace to 6400 without a retoutch of the topside of range. If the 4h-Daily candle closes below that, that could be seen as a bearish pullback.

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Could look something like this

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Idea worked out for the first part, double top in that region.
But after that it flipped the supply zone to support, visible by wicks inside and close above.

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Rejection at the yearly open

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1h close above the demand zone and I'm going long

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Exact rejection in the supply zone of the idea. Now resting on the 9ema D if that breaks expect more downside.

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Saw I never finally updated this, theory was right.
There were two daily retests of the range both front run by a small margin but lets blame that on arbitrage over exchanges.

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Idea I posted before, compare them.

DemKos

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DemKos