Bitcoin
Long
Updated

The slow run to $4k, before ETF takes us to the moon

658
Many insist that a bull run is "long overdue", but with the previous epic bull runs in mid-2011, early 2013, late 2013 and late 2017, we have a history of one to four years between each moonshot. Although we all know anything can happen in crypto, we can also look at what is most likely:

  • It is less than one year since the last epic bull run, making anything before 2019 quite "early"

  • It is widely expected that the various upcoming ETF application decisions will be postponed until Feb/March 2019. This will be very bearish news.

  • The expiration of BTC Futures always coincide with a bearish few days... the next few months have at least five of these expiring - equals more bearish pressure.

  • Bitcoin only costs around $3,000 to mine in China, where around 70% of all new Bitcoin are produced. Hence we can easily drop to 7k, 6k, 5k, maybe even 4k. On this day last year Bitcoin was $2855 and had never been higher - therefore all these values represent long term progress for BTC.

  • This drop to a nice cheap Bitcoin would then coincide with the (hopefully) positive decision for the SolidX/VanEck/CBOE Bitcoin ETF application in late Feb/early March 2019... which will likely be the catalyst we need for our next moonshot to 50k and beyond.

How many Bitcoin will you buy if we hit 4K?

Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Note
This is playing out well, so far down 5% since my initial prediction.Will slow down now as we make our way through $7300 resistance, then on to the next resistance at $6500.

Bear in mind the second week of August will prove pivotal, due to the ETF decision/anticipated postponement of a decision until 2019.
Note
As expected, straight through to below $7000!
Note
We're meeting resistance from the 50 Day Moving Average at $6930 - looks like only a matter of time until we break clear of it. Currently still within it's clutches at $6900.
Note
Next drop (and it's coming) will take us down to $5800 and critical support. If we break through, we should head further down to $5200, where I anticipate this sell off to cool down.

Press play on my prediction above to see how it's been playing out - can't say it wasn't anticipated!

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