Short

BTC Ready For A Drawn Out 50% Down Trend?

Updated

If you have been with us for a while you know I have been looking for a pause or reversal in the trend at this time since June of last year.

We have reached that time period, price has not broken higher and finding collection of things that leading my personal bias to a reversal or significant pull back.

IF this is what we see I don't expect a straight shot down but rather a pull back to the 45-48k area, relief rally back to 55k area and potentially continue lower to the 35k area.

This would be a significant reduction in value that hopefully would entice buyers to buy.

Time wise looking at a relief rally mid september and reaccumulation with more upside in December.

Please bear in mind these are just projections based proportional price action and a multitude of technical analysis methods showing confluence.

The next indication buyers and sellers are following this model will be to brake down into the sub 60k area as we have already and not rally with strength.

I have also posted a video explanation of each method of analysis in making this model.
(average retrace ranges, fibonacci time and price levels, spider lines, gann fanns, gann box, bell curve probability, momentum oscillators like market cipher and vumanchu, and the octave method)

If interested in these methods I explain them in the video.
youtube.com/watch?v=IQJEQqdywNU

Trade Well....
Your Friend,
Degen

Note

Note

IF we do see a large directional move down I am expecting to find support at the price levels listed. These are areas of interest and really are a range of a few hundred dollars each way. It is where you "look" for temporary support and decent sized relief rallies. If we do see a full correction down to the 43-33k area I would expect to see a least a pause and a corrective bounce in the areas of 56.5, 49, 38.5, and lasty 33k. Price may or may not go down at all but we if do see the corrective move these are my areas of interst for support along the way.

Note

Now that we have seen a push up there is a oppertunity for what is now a measured move relationship into the previously posted next target area of 49-49.5. Doesn't mean it will just dump. These is a "decision" area. The short sentiment is based on probability and risk to reward.

Note

We have now hit the first resistance level in the 48-50 area and need to watch the rally it produces for early signs of weakness. IF it exausts early lower targets in the projection are likely. Next target would be 38-42k.

Note

Well we have hit our 65-68k push up target and appear to be rejecting at least for now. Now that we have put in 4 lower highs I have added a momentum curve to the downside representing the current rate of decay.
tradingview.com/chart/mfM99YnB/

Degen-Dynasty

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