BTC cycle theory: when is it end of the bear market?
Updated
As you can see, there are a lot of traingles above. Why traingles? Because it is very good figure to analyze charts with an upgraded cycle theory. First of all, let we compare volumes and candle sizes in the biggest traingle and in the green second traingle that has smaller size. We can reveal, that in the first traingle candle sizes has ~1.9 times bigger size, the same for the traiding volumes.
Now watch at brown line. It is major trend for the bearish market that lasts for more than a year. You can see that price tried to break it at least 6 times, but didn't succeed. If this line get broken, it is the best sign of the reversal trend.
Now watch at first green support line at 6000. Also plenty of unsuccessful tests until it finally has broken. The same line for the smaller traingle. Then let's make a traingles and measure price change and the period of time on the traingles edges. Keep in mind, that first traingle's suport line has broken before it reached the vertice. Measure the small traingle inside the biggest one.
After measuring proceedure we found the lengths of the edges (see it on picture). Now let's find similarity coefficient between all traingles. For the biggest one and the second one it is ~1.8 (divide relevant edges). Nearly as the candle size change we found above! For the small traingle inside the big one the coef. is 7.5.
Finally, let we make the same traingle with the same similarity coefficient like the market did it before. We get the yellow traingle. As coef. = 1.8 it's period should be ~100 days and price should go down to ~1800-2100 level.
It is not a school geometry lesson, traingles just help to visualize market cycles, so I suppose, that the price should go down ~to 2K. After that happens and the third traingle would be complited, it is very high chances to break the major trend line as the sizes of the potentiall future traingles gets smaller and smaller and bull support gets stronger and stronger with the price declining.
Main targets:
Now-APR - ~3300-4000
End of APR-AUG - yellow traingle, ~2000
AUG+ - start of the reversal trend
Now watch at brown line. It is major trend for the bearish market that lasts for more than a year. You can see that price tried to break it at least 6 times, but didn't succeed. If this line get broken, it is the best sign of the reversal trend.
Now watch at first green support line at 6000. Also plenty of unsuccessful tests until it finally has broken. The same line for the smaller traingle. Then let's make a traingles and measure price change and the period of time on the traingles edges. Keep in mind, that first traingle's suport line has broken before it reached the vertice. Measure the small traingle inside the biggest one.
After measuring proceedure we found the lengths of the edges (see it on picture). Now let's find similarity coefficient between all traingles. For the biggest one and the second one it is ~1.8 (divide relevant edges). Nearly as the candle size change we found above! For the small traingle inside the big one the coef. is 7.5.
Finally, let we make the same traingle with the same similarity coefficient like the market did it before. We get the yellow traingle. As coef. = 1.8 it's period should be ~100 days and price should go down to ~1800-2100 level.
It is not a school geometry lesson, traingles just help to visualize market cycles, so I suppose, that the price should go down ~to 2K. After that happens and the third traingle would be complited, it is very high chances to break the major trend line as the sizes of the potentiall future traingles gets smaller and smaller and bull support gets stronger and stronger with the price declining.
Main targets:
Now-APR - ~3300-4000
End of APR-AUG - yellow traingle, ~2000
AUG+ - start of the reversal trend
Note
The number of open longs is about 62%, it is very high and so very high riscs of an enormous candle down if things turn around a little, so I expect big dump quite soon.
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