BTC now trades at a really interesting level where one would fairly make a case for a few different technical outcomes likely if we dumped again to 70K.
There are three things that would make sense inside the knowns of trend development;
1 - We are making a pullback of the last leg (bullish overall).
2 - We are in a bearish wave 4, about to spike out (bull near term, bearish overall).
3 - We are in a larger chart rejection (super bearish, bounce patterns fail).
The case for 70K hitting here I think is good. When we look at the fibs from the low to the high of the rally we can see we have bonces a bit above the 61 fib. The 61 fib is rarely the reversal level. It's a popularly known fib but I find more often it fakes a reversal and then puts in a spike move to the 76. So in the bull setup here usually one flush to go.
Even in a moderate bear setup here where a reversal was slowly building, we'd be inside of the wave 4 zone now. There would be a spike lower to come but a sharp bull trap.
Basically, either way you slice it there is a confluence of strong bounce patterns at 70K on the daily chart. If these bounce patterns fail, this is telling us we're likely in a bigger chart sell pattern.
And that would typically express itself as monthly chart capitulation candles.
There are three things that would make sense inside the knowns of trend development;
1 - We are making a pullback of the last leg (bullish overall).
2 - We are in a bearish wave 4, about to spike out (bull near term, bearish overall).
3 - We are in a larger chart rejection (super bearish, bounce patterns fail).
The case for 70K hitting here I think is good. When we look at the fibs from the low to the high of the rally we can see we have bonces a bit above the 61 fib. The 61 fib is rarely the reversal level. It's a popularly known fib but I find more often it fakes a reversal and then puts in a spike move to the 76. So in the bull setup here usually one flush to go.
Even in a moderate bear setup here where a reversal was slowly building, we'd be inside of the wave 4 zone now. There would be a spike lower to come but a sharp bull trap.
Basically, either way you slice it there is a confluence of strong bounce patterns at 70K on the daily chart. If these bounce patterns fail, this is telling us we're likely in a bigger chart sell pattern.
And that would typically express itself as monthly chart capitulation candles.
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I am thinking this looks more like a 70K break coming if we get to it now. Looks sketchy.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.