Long

Bitcoin Long Trade

Updated

I entered a long with a pretty bad entry in hindsight. Hidden Bullish Divergence on 4h RSI and MACD about to turn green for the first time since Feb 10.

Note

Trade doing good so far and i got to give credits to mitch ray for this trade, and apologize for sharin this trade ii will only post my 100% own ideas and trades in the future :)

Note

At this Point we can clearly see that buyers absorbin the remaining supply around the 50k level once this level gets broken i believe we will see a substantial rise in price and the demand and fomo will increase even more.

As long as Bitcoin can hold the 48200 level below, it will eventually break the 50k level and probably reach the first target pretty fast.

Note

RSI Trendline just got broken with 4h candle close confirmation and the first positive histogram on the MACD is finally showing.

Note

BTC had the highest daily close yesterday and just now closed its highest 4h candle ever.

Note

BTC seems to be holding the 21 ema on the 4h as support for now but still workin on absorbin all the sell orders at the 49700 - 50100 level while the price drops loosing strength. It could be argued that this is ascending triangle behaviour.

However if BTC fails to break this level in the next hours, i expect another sell off below 49k most likely to the 48680 level (last weekly candle close) or even to the 48200 level which provided support and resistance before.

Lets see what the close of the Asia session and the start of the London Session has in store for BTC.

Note

Bitcoin just made a new ATH like expected after holdin above 48680 and smashin thru the sell wall at 50k. Now the next question is if BTC can hold this level and turn the former resistance around 49700 into support.

Note

Comment: Changed the simple demand and supply lines which i saw in Mitchs stream back into a parallel channel since it fits perfectly and could be used by trading bots much better than simple trendlines.
Whats also fascinating about the parallel channel is that BTC never closed a 4h below the heartline ever since it crossed it to the upside on Feb. 8 which is pretty impressive. You can find this channel in my previous idea.

Bitcoin also broke the supply line of the wedge and will most likely continue to the top of the channel if it can close at least a 1h close above it might even turn it into support.

Note

Breakin a rising Wedge to the upside again is extremly bullish especially since BTC consolidated a couple days inside of it at these high levels and btc easily could have had a sell off like BTC always did in the past before this bullrun started.
It shows clearly that the demand is still very high and bearish patterns like rising wedges or bearish divergences are very weak.

Note

Bitcoin broke the supply line of the narrowing channel/rising wedge inside the parallel channel. It already performed a backtest and is now trading confident over 51k.
Since i changed my analysis back to my first idea of the parallel channel instead of a ascending broadening wedge, the profit taking level has also changed for the first target from 55300$ to 52400$ which then doesn't meet the criteria of a 3:1 RR. Thats why im going to keep the trade running for Target 2 and 3 and only close earlier if the Chart tells me to.
Thanks to VincePrince's inspiration i now believe, that in these extreme bullish conditions, BTC could break above the channel and hold it as support, like it did on the break above 25k on 12/26/2020 and the backtest on 12/29/2020.

Note

8hours later and the trade is still running and so far the 51k level held surprisingly well. the longer we stay above 51k, the higher the likelihood of testing the top of the supply line of the parallel channel (not visible in this chart - check the updated chart) and maybe even breaking above the supply line and in the best case turn it into a new demand line.

The daily MACD histogram just started gaining positive momentum again.

The only thing that concerns me is the 3d and the 2d could develop severe bearish divergence if bitcoin decides to stall here.

Note

CNBC 1h ago just posted this very bullish news for BTC:

"BlackRock’s Rick Rieder says the world’s largest asset manager has ‘started to dabble’ in bitcoin"

Source: cnbc.com/2021/02/17/blackrock-has-started-to-dabble-in-bitcoin-says-rick-rieder.html

I was waiting for BlackRock for a long time to get into the Cryptospace couple Weeks ago they anounced to start a Crypto Fund which i found very exciting.
BlackRock the biggest Asset Manager worldwide, got a super-computer called Aladin which can process huge amounts of Data which leads to their investment decisions. If this super-computer told them BTC is the way to go and they only invested a couple billions then we can expect a 100k+ BTC very soon.

Note

BTC just broke 52k!

Note

On Binance Futures my trade just has reached the first (adjusted) profit taking level at 52630 which i already decided before not to take profits, if nothing on the chart points to lower prices. The Oscillators all got much more room to run and i can't see any divergences or other chart patterns which would encourage me to close 1/3 of the trade right now.

With all this bullish news like: "Microstrategy is borrowing $900 million at 0% to buy more Bitcoin." and BlackRock probably allready accumulating billions worth of BTC, while Grayscale buy multiples of the new mined coins everyday, i really dont want to close even a small percentage of this trade until we are nearing the 2nd Profit takin level at 59k.

If we have a sell off i will look at this as a major opportunity and most likely will open up a new trade and let this trade run as a long term trade aiming for the 1.618 at 64850 and beyond.

luyestefan

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.