Whale/trader Behavior Analysis - Remember, whales are TA experts
Updated
tl;dr - I expect BTC finds bottom around 4k on this Saturday or Sunday
Here I give you a quick update of what is happening right now. Let's read 15-min chart this time.
You may have noticed that the huge selling volume is periodical. Everytime after whales drag price down, they will take a break for a few hours before starting the next big dump. Why?
Because whales are greedy. They don't want to sell low. After creating an illusion of a bullish market, they know that people will buy more if they are offered a discount. "Buy the dip" they say. Together with "HODL", "Lambo", and "MOON", these memes benefit whales a lot.
Whales created the first turning point after finding that further pump would no longer bring them more net profit (cost of next pump > profit from the selling after the pump). Whales knew that many people were expecting a correction after consecutive pumps and exponential growth. They made the first dump to attract people who "miss the train" and want to buy the dip to back to the game. As I said in my previous posts, whales are smart and there is no reason that they do not use TA. They know every support level well. And they will definitely take a look at what popular Tradingview authors are posting before taking their moves. Everytime they will dump and stop right before a support to let it bounces higher so they can sell higher. There is no point for them to sell through the support level because that will result in less profit. Whales' bots keep selling during the consolidation phase after a dump. This is why the bounces from supports are always much weaker than you expected in your TA. And this is why I always suggest you to be really really cautious when longing BTC in a bearish market. It usually won't bounce high enough to reach your profit zone on your TA.
Check my previous post to get a big picture of this BTC Pump & Dump.
Now we are in the Step 8. Whales are selling and normies start realizing the correction lasts longer than their expectation.
AND we are slowly sliding into Step 9, where most normies have run out of Fiat for the dips and whales have taken enough profit they want and start the REAL DUMP.
You know we are sliding into Step 9 when you find significantly more FUD news and FUD comments have been posted on various social media, such as on r/CryptoCurrency/. The speed of price dropping will be accelerated a lot in the following days.
"Where is the bottom?"
I expect BTC finds the bottom on this Saturday or Sunday. I still stand by my old target 4k. It seems unrealistic at the moment. But I think whales are still keeping their big-boss FUD material unrevealed. We will witness a capitulation move once that is revealed.
Personally I will start buying in after BTC break the 5k6 support. That well-known support level is the one must-to-break. I will start with small amounts (2%-3%) first and increase the amounts as the price falling lower.
At last, sorry for the late update and I do not have much time double checking my writing. Hope you can understand me well. The flu season really gets me and my families. The cold is pretty nasty this time. I wish you strong health for you and your relatives, and your assets!
Here I give you a quick update of what is happening right now. Let's read 15-min chart this time.
You may have noticed that the huge selling volume is periodical. Everytime after whales drag price down, they will take a break for a few hours before starting the next big dump. Why?
Because whales are greedy. They don't want to sell low. After creating an illusion of a bullish market, they know that people will buy more if they are offered a discount. "Buy the dip" they say. Together with "HODL", "Lambo", and "MOON", these memes benefit whales a lot.
Whales created the first turning point after finding that further pump would no longer bring them more net profit (cost of next pump > profit from the selling after the pump). Whales knew that many people were expecting a correction after consecutive pumps and exponential growth. They made the first dump to attract people who "miss the train" and want to buy the dip to back to the game. As I said in my previous posts, whales are smart and there is no reason that they do not use TA. They know every support level well. And they will definitely take a look at what popular Tradingview authors are posting before taking their moves. Everytime they will dump and stop right before a support to let it bounces higher so they can sell higher. There is no point for them to sell through the support level because that will result in less profit. Whales' bots keep selling during the consolidation phase after a dump. This is why the bounces from supports are always much weaker than you expected in your TA. And this is why I always suggest you to be really really cautious when longing BTC in a bearish market. It usually won't bounce high enough to reach your profit zone on your TA.
Check my previous post to get a big picture of this BTC Pump & Dump.
Now we are in the Step 8. Whales are selling and normies start realizing the correction lasts longer than their expectation.
AND we are slowly sliding into Step 9, where most normies have run out of Fiat for the dips and whales have taken enough profit they want and start the REAL DUMP.
You know we are sliding into Step 9 when you find significantly more FUD news and FUD comments have been posted on various social media, such as on r/CryptoCurrency/. The speed of price dropping will be accelerated a lot in the following days.
"Where is the bottom?"
I expect BTC finds the bottom on this Saturday or Sunday. I still stand by my old target 4k. It seems unrealistic at the moment. But I think whales are still keeping their big-boss FUD material unrevealed. We will witness a capitulation move once that is revealed.
Personally I will start buying in after BTC break the 5k6 support. That well-known support level is the one must-to-break. I will start with small amounts (2%-3%) first and increase the amounts as the price falling lower.
At last, sorry for the late update and I do not have much time double checking my writing. Hope you can understand me well. The flu season really gets me and my families. The cold is pretty nasty this time. I wish you strong health for you and your relatives, and your assets!
Note
By the way, there is no sign that our market is reversing. Number of transactions on BTC, ETH, and LTC are all dropping.bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-ltc.html
Note
I expect bounce tonight and maybe tomorrow. BTC will try to form the inverse H&S but it will very likely run out of steam in the middle of it because of low volume. People will start dump hard if this last hope was disappear.If so, we will see the bottom in Sunday or Monday.
Note
A quick update. I just find whale volume pumping the price. I am assessing their intention. It's likely they are trying to fake another bullrun.
We don't trade patterns. We draw them.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.