Short

BTC Entering the "Crush Stage" of the Downtrend.

Updated

A big downtrend usually comes in a few parts.

1 - The warning. A clear break from the highs but it's overlooked because "Bears are always wrong" (Etc etc).

2 - The crash. Obvious failure of the uptrend. Unfortunately, this is when people often want to get all in because "It always goes back up" (Etc etc).

3 - The big trap. Usually a rally of somewhere in the 100% range which makes everyone think the new bull run is starting.

4 - The crush and re-crush. The new bull trap fails and sets up a prolonged downtrend.

Here are some forecasts very few people seem to have on their radar right now.

1 - BTC is making a high at 30K. 31K will not be broken. We will not see BTC over 31K any time in the coming years. Yes - I said years.

2 - The next big drop will take us to about 17K BTC.

3 - After a bull trap we'll be in a consistent downtrend.

4 - Over the next 3-4 years BTC will trade under 10K. Probably close to 6K.

And this would complete the 2021 forecast.

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Meh! Spiked.

I think this might be a bat pattern, which is a false BO pattern.

Short again 34K.
Stop 35.5K

If I am right, we have to see this turning into a wick.

For it to be just a stop run, it must only be a wick on bigger timeframes.

Big deal at the time, but entirely nominal seeming later.

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Adding more shorts 33,700.

Pretty much just based on the flood of childish comments in this thread. Often that's a great fade.

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Part 2

BTC Entering the "Crush Stage" of the Downtrend (2)

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Final line of shorts.

Feels like it's now or never for the bear move. If we're in a trappy top it should be close to over.

Note

Someone made an interesting observation that I thought would be worth noting for review later. They said:

"Sentiment is at 2021 levels and prices are at 2022 levels".

I thought that was an interesting juxtaposition.

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Could be a harmonic top.

If this indeed going to be a reversal, the recent action would imply a very strong one.

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Moved off the high a bit and so far we have early structural failure of the uptrend.

Very possible we drop here and it's just a pullback (Highly likely even in a bull move this would retrace, which is why the 34/35K short seems a no brainer to try again.

If we were to hold an uptrend drop would end around 32K.

If we get to 32K I'll move my stop losses to even and wait to see if we break.

If we break, maybe this was just a liquidity spike.

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Short ETH now too.

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First potential trend failure. Here the 1.61 should usually be a good support in a bull move as the butterfly continuation trade.

Failure of this, spells failure of uptrend.

Moment of truth approaching.

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Some thoughts on using TA.

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Stops to even on the 35K shorts. Still have exposure on ones from 34K to 34,700.

If the bears are going to win here, I think we're near the end of the 34K fight.

If not, I want to start scaling back my short. Got really, really big during the range.

Note

Since we have a thread full of people who think anyone who's shorting BTC must have never heard of buying, here's the long forecast at the low. We're at the target area.

Telling the more sp of my friends BTC might be a buy.

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While markets always advance rapidly to highs they usually range there for a long time.

Usually the move up happens too quickly for people to get in but it remains at the price it will turn long enough to encourage people to make mistakes.

During this time nothing bullish happens but bull sentiment soars.

They see bull flags etc but you also see these in most highs. If it was as simple as watching a YouTube video on bull flags everyone would be right and there'd be no liquidity.

As someone who fades big moves I know I have to be patient. Tops can take a long time to form and then move to quickly to let people adjust (often news related).

If the market drops I'll continue thread updates bit no longer reply to trolls.

I find it poor form to celebrate the losses of others. If you get the money, why feel the need to take more from them.

If it spikes, I suspect I'll hear from some of you again. Which is okay. I knew what I was signing up for.

Best wishes to all.

Emotions run high in markets. People take things personally. But I prefer to see people do well.

I just like the charts.

Note

I've been accused various times in this thread of being an attention seeker or having ill thought out analysis.

I may or may not be right in my forecast, but a LOT of work has went into it.

The models I am using have been success over the previous years on all big bear moves. Crypto to indices. So I continue to use them.

If they stop working, I'll stop using them.

Here's some more background on my work forecasting bear moves, if you're interested in why I feel I can make such grandiose seeming forecasts.

SPX Just Triggered Most Common Recurring Crash Signal.

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Unfortunately levels of civil debate, discussion or exchanging of ideas in this thread are ... well, they're not improving.

I have a lot of jokes and stuff to engage with trolls(Isn't first time I've encountered them) but my I am starting to run thin on them.

No more comment replies here.

If I see good faith comments for discussion I will happily engage, but it's quite unlikely I'll follow my notifications for a while.

Will come back for a while if I get stopped out for a chat. Let everyone have their fun.

Otherwise, was a pleasure chatting with you. I/m going to prep trade plans for the week ahead.

Note

Bulls in this thread have been more inclined to call me names than raise actual points of debate on my analysis. But to the extent people have, it's usually been telling me about the ETF or telling me about the bull flag.

The ETF argument is self defeating. If I can cite any one example of BTC making a high on good news (And there are many) it defeats the rebuttal. And if I can cite any example of an ETF launching and the asset class topping it also defeats it. This is INCREDIBLY COMMON.

On the bull flag, you also find these in almost every topping move. Here's more info on that.

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For what it's worth, bulls (And know to many of you that's nothing) - this is where my models would suggest would be the best time to exit bull trades or at the very least trail stops to protect again a bear break.

A gradual roll over pattern usually spikes near the end but then that is the end.

Note

To answer, "You're betting against the trend". I am not. I'm very much betting on the trend. In the body of this post I explained the stages in a downtrend.

I a betting this is a counter trend rally that will fit inside of known harmonics. At this point, the AB=CD would be the pattern in play.

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Adding shorts at 34,400.

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First short target is a drop of about 50%.

Usually in this stage of a downtrend drops are around 50%.

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Short position is large now.

If I am right, this is about the time it should start to play out.

If I am wrong I think I'll find out quick enough.

Range break approaching IMO.

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Buying EoW COIN puts.

If this is a range break setting up and it breaks the downside a really sharp drop would usually form off this setup. Could see big move down in COIN in coming days.

Note

SOL shorts.

Strong Confluence of Short Signals in Sol

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Starting to run out of patience with this. While I think the underlying analysis probably picks up more merit the longer we range (Ranges at tops are common) there's a difference between having a right idea and making money.

As a trader, it rally does not make much sense to have capital tied up in an asset priced 35K going sideways for 10 days. This is the same margin requirement to trade DJI and DJI is actually moving in ways there's good money to be made.

Starting to feel like I am losing money in the range. Let's say I have $100 at risk when I started the trade (Just for an easy number). With the same risk allocation in DJI I'd have probably averaged somewhere around $70 a day at least (Would have lost the last day or so drawing down the average).

Would be up over $300 vrs flat with $100 at risk and somewhere just over $1,000 potential gain. It's just an inefficient use of capital.

With all that said, picked up some more positions into the last rally around 35K.

If I'd started with $100 at risk I now have about $700 at risk.

But if this is still in a range by Monday I am probably just going to cut my positions. Purely on the basis I can make more money elsewhere.

The market ranging actually costs me more money than it just stopping me out for a known loss.

Biggest positions on today but my patience wears thin.

If you're good at trading, it's better to lose money fast than lose time - and this trade is taking a long time.

Note

Stops to even on the 35K adds.

It should work now if it's working and if not I'm going to start to size down and allocate capital to markets making cleaner moves.

This looks okay so far. Was the type of rejection I'd expect off a spike high.

Broke first level of big supports.

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That was not a bear break. 35K stops hit and also hit a few stops at a loss. But of position survived so far but I didn't think we'd break 35.5K. Surprised me.

I can't go through all the comments so we'll do a bulk reply to some of the ones I assume most common.

>You were wrong.
Yes.

>Haha
Hehe

>Got what you deserved
Market always gives us what we deserve.

>Rekt
Call an ambulance.

Jokes aside, I do tend to worry about anyone who thinks someone can get seriously hurt in one market swing - usually people saying this are the ones overexposed.

>Shouldn't have been so cocky!
Been called cocky and arrogant a lot and all I did was explain the properties of a textbook downtrend. It's really not a grandiose thing to do. People explained all this before me and I am just applying it to a chart in the modern day.

You think it's cocky because you have an emotional attachment to the asset in question. The analysis was not arrogant or cocky. Nothing pejorative was said. It just made a series of specific forecasts. Which is what an analysis is meant to do. These have been wrong so far.

Anyone who got arrogant of cocky replies from me would have been experiencing me parodying themselves back to them. If that made you sad ...

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Anyway, since I got out a fair bit of my position at even and since I think I've now maybe have worked out why I got everything wrong (In all markets) recently I am going to try again. As mentioned previously, the range annoyed me and I have far bigger positions in other markets instead now, but trying another BTC at 34.8K.

Retrospectively, it was naive of me to short as early as 30K. In my November analysis I put it to 36K and while I can not remember how I generated that level specifically - that me was smarter than current me has been. So I'll try one more bet with stop 36,700.

Congrats to the bulls who banked. Was a very good rally.

Note

Forgot to link mentioned analysis.

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Looks like a butterfly spike high which may become the head of a head and shoulders. One of the most reliable confluence of signals (Note, the HS alone is only about 30%, but it's far more supported with a butterfly head).

If this breaks the high, all bets are off for shorts. I now have buy stops placed 36,600 with stop losses 34,300. Would want to be long a breakout here.

If there's no breakout - BTC back to the 20s. Probably quickly.

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Taking profit on longs and short again 37,060.

Stop 38,357.

Note

And adding short 37.5K

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Contrats to bulls.

Trying short again 42K.

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This thread has over 100 new comments since I stopped reading it.

Me big dum dum. You big smart smart.

I get it, guys.

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Quick scan of comments and it's sill largely people calling me arrogant. Honestly, I don't get that. My forecast percentage decline in BTC is something that has happened many times before. Actually, probably more time than any other speculative asset.

I'd think assuming it can't happen because you're long now would seem more arrogant.

But it's diverse opinions that make a market. We'll see how things go.

Congrats to bulls. Certainly wasn't time to short when I posted this.

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After a spell of hibernation, this looks like a good spot to take a stab at the big bear trade again.

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holeyprofit

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