Current Bitcoin PA $ 50 Week EMA and MACD, compared to 2021
I am using the ATH points as reference to the 50 EMA ( Red) as we just recently posted a new ATH even though it was only a slight rise, the effect on the push has been significant on the MACD
First thing to note is the different "distance" from ATH point to the 50 EMA below.
This gives us an idea of the momntum of the Rise.
The exponential moving average (EMA) is a technical chart indicator that tracks the price of an investment (like a stock or commodity) over time.
APRIL 2021 - the 50 EMA was 112% below the ATH point. Price had risen sharply
NOV 2021 - 50 EMA was 60% below ATH point. The EMA still had momentum from the previous push and P a had retraced and bounced off the 50
MARCH 2024 - the 50 EMA is 87% below the ATH point. This shows a slower rise to the ATH point than in early 2021.
Currently, I would suggest that PA / 50 EMA is close to what we saw in Nov 2021 as seen in the closer % distance from ATH to 50 EMA but also simply from the angle of ascent of the 50 EMA.
And so now, we Look at the MACD on these occasions.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3gPYHyX2/
The lines here are the ATH from the chart above and then the MACD Bullish Cross overs, that led to continuation.
From the ATH in April 2021 to where the MACD recovered from being oversold, it took 119 days and the Cross over was above the Neutral line and if we take the same time to recover now, we are in Early July 2024.
But as suggested Earlier, I feel we are closer to the Nov 2021 "pattern" and so, Lets look at that.
From that
From the ATH point to the dirst Crossover, it was 133 days and happened below the Neutral line and if this happens again, we are in Late July 2024. Should the MACD roll over and continue to Oversold, as it did in 2022, then we end up in Dec 2024 at the Low of MACD and it turning up to push high once again.
Points to notte here are ;-
MACD is higher than it was in Nov 2021 and so, to recreate these retraces closely, the Drop we must see will be sharper but it needs to be understood, MACD WILL RETRACE at some point.
RSI is closer to the early 2021 pattern and is currently bouncing off the line it did in Feb 2021.
To conclude.
We are at a Cross roads and Bitcoin is oversold on the Weekly and previously, when up here, the retrace went to at least the Neutral line. PA could Range in its current channel till MACD reaches a point where further upside can happen.
We may see another push higher over the next few weeks as the Daily Chart has reset very nicely. and the MACD is about to Cross Bullish but it is important to remember this WEEKLY situation.
As mentioned yesterday, ALT season occurs around 200 days AFTER Halving.
Look where that MACD is after 200 days
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