Indecisive market, possible bullish and bearish scenarios
Updated
Hello and welcome to today's analysis!
In front of us we have a 4h chart and we can see a couple of interesting things.
First off we had a bullish MA crossover, 50MA crossed 200MA on 16th of June. Last time we had a bullish crossover like this one, the market rallied from 5300 to 8000+. Obviously, the market doesn't have the same strength as it had before when it was bashed around for a whole year during the bear market but there might still be some momentum left.
BTC managed to print higher lows and higher highs. We did manage to close at a higher level on 16th however we were short of 2 dollars on 17th, this shows some weakness from the bulls. Also, from the wicks we see touching 93-9400 we can tell that there is a lot of selling pressure at these levels. People that bought into BTC before the 9k move are probably emptying their bags at these levels.
We're above the Ichimoku cloud which in itself is a positive sign as it outlines an uptrend. The 2 doji candles that formed yesterday evening are showing the traders indecisiveness. At the same time, it seems that on BitMEX the OI has gone up.
A lot of contradictory moves if you ask me, I don't see a lot of strength from the bulls nor do I see the bears taking over. As I'm writing this analysis BTC dropped 50 points.
I believe that as long as we're staying above this trendline we have hopes for hitting the resistance again 94XX. If we drop below the trendline we'll most likely see a prolonged consolidation that may last for a few days to a week. The news are very important as well and a positive development will propel BTC to 9.5-10k territory based on the bullishness of the news (e.g. Fidelity).
Thank you for reading my analysis.
Please like this if it's of any help to you. Liking this also helps and encourages me to post more ideas.
SUPPORT LEVELS:
9070, 8950, 8700.
RESISTANCE:
9350+
In front of us we have a 4h chart and we can see a couple of interesting things.
First off we had a bullish MA crossover, 50MA crossed 200MA on 16th of June. Last time we had a bullish crossover like this one, the market rallied from 5300 to 8000+. Obviously, the market doesn't have the same strength as it had before when it was bashed around for a whole year during the bear market but there might still be some momentum left.
BTC managed to print higher lows and higher highs. We did manage to close at a higher level on 16th however we were short of 2 dollars on 17th, this shows some weakness from the bulls. Also, from the wicks we see touching 93-9400 we can tell that there is a lot of selling pressure at these levels. People that bought into BTC before the 9k move are probably emptying their bags at these levels.
We're above the Ichimoku cloud which in itself is a positive sign as it outlines an uptrend. The 2 doji candles that formed yesterday evening are showing the traders indecisiveness. At the same time, it seems that on BitMEX the OI has gone up.
A lot of contradictory moves if you ask me, I don't see a lot of strength from the bulls nor do I see the bears taking over. As I'm writing this analysis BTC dropped 50 points.
I believe that as long as we're staying above this trendline we have hopes for hitting the resistance again 94XX. If we drop below the trendline we'll most likely see a prolonged consolidation that may last for a few days to a week. The news are very important as well and a positive development will propel BTC to 9.5-10k territory based on the bullishness of the news (e.g. Fidelity).
Thank you for reading my analysis.
Please like this if it's of any help to you. Liking this also helps and encourages me to post more ideas.
SUPPORT LEVELS:
9070, 8950, 8700.
RESISTANCE:
9350+
Note
If I were to use the wicks of the candles for drawing the support line we'd have a bit more space to wiggle on the downside to 8994. I know that there are traders using the bodies and some using the wicks, I'm using the bodies as it tends to give me a narrower range so I can exit/entry trades faster than when I'd by using the wicks. Note
I still find it hard to believe that the bear market is over. We went up so much and so fast, we pretty much skipped the 6k levels altogether and rushed into 7-8k territory. It's really amazing to see that people got over the depression and aching wallets the previous bear market left behind. This is why I'm feeling a bit off, I feel like a big violent move to the downside is a possibility. I'm not saying 1k or 4k like other people are saying but a drop to 6k might be possible.
Short term: Everything is looking quite good. The price keeps going higher, the first trendline I draw is still in play even though it's crossing one of the candle bodies. It can cross body candles just fine, the idea for a trendline to be valid is that it doesn't need to be under the close of a candle.
Like I've said above, the other trendline gives us more space to wiggle but it may lead to delayed reactions.
Thank you for taking the time to read this and I hope it was useful to you.
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