#Bitcoin and The Dead Cat Bounce
Updated
Hi everyone,
Thank you for considering reading my idea.
Disclaimer: The chart shown is not an exact prediction of what's going to happen on the prices. Instead, it is a pattern that could play out.
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Sooner or later, Bitcoin will get this relief rally and people would be optimistic. But ever since we broke down the 50 week moving average (yellow dotted line, also see linked idea below), I have accepted that Bitcoin COULD go down as low as 20k (where the 200 week MA is at - green dotted line). With Bitcoin's volatility, a dump down to 20k in a matter of weeks or months is possible. But let's consider getting a relief rally back to the 50 week moving average, currently at $48,575.35.
A dead cat bounce pattern is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock/asset. Usually, we draw a Fibonacci Retracement and get the 0.5 level. In the current case, the high of the Fibonacci Retracement is at $69,000 and we're going to find out where could be the low to get the 0.5 level at 48.5K.
To have a bounce that would go to 0.5 level, Bitcoin must go as low as $28,100 so that it can bounce going back to the 0.5 level and also the 50 week MA (48.5K).
Another scenario is where it could bounce to the 0.382 level of the Fibonacci retracement. To have a bounce that would go to 0.382, Bitcoin must go as low as 35.8K (which we already did!)
IMPORTANT!
Although, since the price is changing, it would mean that the 50 week moving average would also go down in the next weeks or months. So I can't really tell where the bottom is. One thing that is on my mind is that we will have this price action (see blue dashed line):
Thank you for reading this idea. Like this idea and follow me for more analysis like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR.
Cheers,
Juvs
Thank you for considering reading my idea.
Disclaimer: The chart shown is not an exact prediction of what's going to happen on the prices. Instead, it is a pattern that could play out.
-------------
Sooner or later, Bitcoin will get this relief rally and people would be optimistic. But ever since we broke down the 50 week moving average (yellow dotted line, also see linked idea below), I have accepted that Bitcoin COULD go down as low as 20k (where the 200 week MA is at - green dotted line). With Bitcoin's volatility, a dump down to 20k in a matter of weeks or months is possible. But let's consider getting a relief rally back to the 50 week moving average, currently at $48,575.35.
A dead cat bounce pattern is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock/asset. Usually, we draw a Fibonacci Retracement and get the 0.5 level. In the current case, the high of the Fibonacci Retracement is at $69,000 and we're going to find out where could be the low to get the 0.5 level at 48.5K.
To have a bounce that would go to 0.5 level, Bitcoin must go as low as $28,100 so that it can bounce going back to the 0.5 level and also the 50 week MA (48.5K).
Another scenario is where it could bounce to the 0.382 level of the Fibonacci retracement. To have a bounce that would go to 0.382, Bitcoin must go as low as 35.8K (which we already did!)
IMPORTANT!
Although, since the price is changing, it would mean that the 50 week moving average would also go down in the next weeks or months. So I can't really tell where the bottom is. One thing that is on my mind is that we will have this price action (see blue dashed line):
- find a bottom
- get a relief rally or dead cat bounce that could reach the 50 week moving average and get rejected from there
- continue dumping to the 200 week moving average (green dashed line) - higher than 18K
Thank you for reading this idea. Like this idea and follow me for more analysis like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR.
Cheers,
Juvs
Note
Are we bottoming out off 32k? If we did, a relief rally up to 46-48k is around the corner but we need to assess if we are going to reject that area.
Note
Still valid. If we broke out of 46-48k decisively like going to 52k, Bitcoin will flip bullish for longer term
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