Updated

Bitcoin testing important levels now at 7300/7500

So we dropped even below the 7500, even though we have dropped so much (what i didn't expect) the bull flag was real. Could see it had support around the 7700 and has resistance from the bounce from the low. As usual there 2 options now,
- The flag is too much resistance and we will retest the the 7300/7500 support zone again.
- The resistance of the flag breaks and when that happens, we should see a move to the 7800 resistance, that will be an important level to break as well. If that one breaks it could be a first step that this whole move down was a big shake out.

So just some guidelines of whats going on here. At the moment still selling pressure coming in, i have a feeling that too many became to desperate and have been selling around these lows. But too soon to tell of course. Alts have been hit big time as well, also shows the weakness and doubts of this market.

Previous analysis:

Bitcoin getting ready for a big move soon (hopefully)

Note

So we got another slightly lower low, which is a bullish sign! Also translates into bullish divergence, a big bounce up, if the bulls can hold the 7500 now and break the 7650ish, we should be able to go towards the 7750/7800. Had quite the drop already now, so we should have a correction up from the impulse move down, or resume the trend up again. Can't say which one it is at the moment.

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Thinks it's the first time now that Gdax is not the weak link, since Friday even. Since Friday it was behind 20 to 30 points. Seems the manipulators who were doing that, have probably finished their job

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First resistance at 7650 has been taken out, but still no convincing move up. Volume is not bad but also not high. But that could still happen, actually has to happen if bulls want to push it back inside that big bull flag on the right.

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So the low volume brought prices back to test the support levels again. Bulls need to keep it above the 7450 to fit the bottom formation scenario. First step now is a push above the 7580ish, that should cool things down again. So far that resistance line on the chart on the right is still to heavy at the moment. Thats why much more volume is needed to break that level again. If bulls don't show conviction if another attempt will happen, it will probably just be too much and the chances will increase allot that the current support on the lows will break. It could also mean the whole uptrend we have had from the 6K's could be over already as well. IMO it's much to soon to start dropping now already, but it's Bitcoin, anything is possible.

Note

So many mixed signals at the moment, it's just difficult to say what will happen next. There are bullish signs on the higher time frame, several even. But on the lower time frames things are just so weak and bearish. On the left we can see that it's all just a pullback of the big rally we have had since the 6K's. But alts are still bleeding and it's just getting worse everyday. If this hurting was not enough, the problem at the Okex exchange are also hanging over this market at the moment. The market has been aware of this, so this is probably a big cause of the whole weakness in the market at the moment. As far as i know, it will only affect the exchange (will probably go bankrupt) and it's clients who's money will taken to compensate the loss. Probably are their clients will leave the exchange since it seems to be a big joke. Because of things like this, ETF's have not been approved so far.

Problem at the moment is, that even if we drop a bit more, like 7350, we will probably drop back in to that big triangle you see on the left. Normally we have had the false breakout a month ago and bulls were able to push it back in and even above it. So normally this shows the intentions of this market and we should resume the bull trend on this time frame. But as i said, there are just too many uncertain factors at the moment, too many mixed signals. Best thing to do is, just sit and wait it out.

trustnodes.com/2018/08/01/460-million-bitcoin-long-liquidated-okex-not-filled-socialized-losses-back-bang

Note

Bulls are fighting back again, difference this time, it's not a fast squeeze of 150 points in 2 min. Bulls are really pushing now. Still not giving real recommendations, i have been waiting to take a break since a few days ago (since i did not see this drop coming). But this is an objective view of what facts. There is a very big road of resistance levels up to 7800. Whatever happens, there is a very big and realistic chance that we are making a very big H&S with the neckline at 7300. So even if we make a rally, there is still a big chance we will only make a right shoulder. If that will happen, we have to assume that big V shape low will probably happen and that this H&S will be the trigger. So it will probably be an important week or 2.

Note

The rally is still showing strength, going slowly but steady. Volume is good and stable as well. If the bulls can keep this going, there might be a chance they will turn this into an inverse H&S as you can see in the chart. But zooming out on the higher time frame, we can see this move up can also just be the right shoulder of that big H&S i mentioned earlier. So we will probably have an exiting weekend.

botje11

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