BitcoinShort
5/29/22 - Short on 2weekly close
Updated
1 - 2nd weekly open of the month cycle started with the 12th May local bottom
2 - Bearish close of the first half week cycle. Therefore we can assume a bearish weekly closed
3 - Probable local top in conjunction with the falling trend line.
TARGET - After confirming the local top in 3 we can reasonabaly expect a weekly close as well as a 2 weekly close (started in A)
SHORT TRADE LEVELS
- market open after a reasonable top confirmation in 3
- SL: invalidation caused by breaking out both the falling trendline and the previous local tops in B
- TP: somewhere near the 0.618 Fib and the cyclic trendline
Note: the target should be reached before the 11th day of the week (31th of May in the eveninng). Otherwise the position should be close earlier.
2 - Bearish close of the first half week cycle. Therefore we can assume a bearish weekly closed
3 - Probable local top in conjunction with the falling trend line.
TARGET - After confirming the local top in 3 we can reasonabaly expect a weekly close as well as a 2 weekly close (started in A)
SHORT TRADE LEVELS
- market open after a reasonable top confirmation in 3
- SL: invalidation caused by breaking out both the falling trendline and the previous local tops in B
- TP: somewhere near the 0.618 Fib and the cyclic trendline
Note: the target should be reached before the 11th day of the week (31th of May in the eveninng). Otherwise the position should be close earlier.
Trade closed: stop reached
Ok the trade reached our stop loss. What should I/we learned from this?I think here my centering was wrong, my bad, still learning cycle analysis.
Errors in the centering:
- the first weekly cycle (T) probably closed the 19th of May and not the 20.
- the second weekly cycle and so the 2weekly (T+1) probably closed at POINT 2
- after that a new T+1 has started, that would explain the strong upward movement.
I'll update the centering and update the chart in the next idea I'll post in the next few days, hoping to get more lucky.
What I/we can learn from the last 2 weeks candle is:
- BTC seems drawing weekly cycles formed by three 2daily cicle (T-2). So we can assume a ternary structure for the week instead of the classic binary. I'll keep watching BTC behaviour to se if it keeps this structure or it goes back to a binary structure or even if it use both of them without any clear pattern.
- the 2daily cicle incorporating the weekend seems longer.
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