B I T C O I N

Updated

So, I would like to give a more updated view and opinion on Bitcoin from the weekly perspective.

Bitcoin's price has been in a range since June, which can be seen from the H4 & Daily time frames. Suffice to say, it's bullish, but for how long is the question. I say that due to the fact that there's huge barriers up ahead waiting for price action to enter.

Even though it's been ranging, I do believe price will breakout to the upside and continue to rally. I'm honestly anticipating the bears to re-enter the market once it reaches my A.O.I.

I analyze multiple time frames in order to build a directional bias, and three out of the four time frames is telling me bull. Again I say, I'm looking for the bears to swarm the bulls. If not, I am completely bullish after a break of the $45600.

I'll update as price progresses..

M - 🐻
W - 🐂
D - 🐂
H4 - 🐂

Note

I anticipate the H4 to turn bearish before the daily candle close today. If so, which is highly likely, I would then look to see if the daily follow suit.

Note

The H4 flipped bearish on the 14th... will it cascade over other time frames? 🧐

P.S. The daily is bearish, too.

M - 🐻
W - 🐂
D - 🐻
H4 - 🐻

Note

I would anticipate a small rally to the $30547 - $30600 range before continuation to the downside. If p.a. can break the $30547 then the trend would flip back bullish.

Note

H4 is definitely bearish now. If price happen to close below the $29610 level on the daily, that would indicate that it broke the daily range. Next stop could be below $28000. We shall see..

Note

Daily is most certainly bearish. Break of the $26160 will flip the weekly bearish, which means then all four time frames are showing bear. 🤷‍♂️🐻👀

Note

Price action is moving in corrective form, which typically happens after a significant level has been broken. I can see it retracing back toward the $30230 - $30550 range OR blowing pass the range in order to fill in some IMB, which is above the range. We shall see..

Note

Please remember $27587 ($27600).

P.S. If it happens to blow pass it, then $26160. 👀

Note

Currently:

M - 🐻
W - 🐂
D - 🐻
H4 - 🐻

A break of the $30230 will flip the H4 trend from bearish to bullish. Do I believe that will happen? It's possible, but I am anticipating price to fill in the IMB right below the level to continue to move further down. If not that, then I will look for a break of the $30230.

Note

H4 low was broken to the downside so, anticipate a retracement. A break of the $29535 level would flip it from bearish to bullish. I'm looking for bear continuation.

Note

P.A. broke above the $29535, which would signify that the H4 flipped. However, it could have very well been a sweep of liquidity. Especially considering that it was IMB resting above the $29535. If so, I would look for the $28930 to be broken for bearish continuation.

We shall see..

Note

P.A. is at the high end of the curve ($29795), so now I'll look for the low ($28930) to be broken for further downward movement. If not that, I would look for the $29795 to be broken to the upside, which would also flip the H4 from bearish to bullish.

Note

The H4 flippled bullish.

Note

It looks as if Bitcoin is ready to head further down. The 1st stop is looking like it'll be $28000. I'll reserve my other opinions for later..

Note

Now that Bitcoin has broken further down as I previously stated, I'll now look to see price retrace back near the $28000 - $28700 range only to reverse to head down to potentially break the weekly's key low ($26160).

A break of the $27100 will be viewed as a precursor for the start of the pullback phase.

If not that, I would wait for price to flip the H4 ($30000) to then see if it'll end up flipping the daily as well.

We shall see..

Note

1. Bearish impulsive
2. Descending
3. P.A. revisiting broken daily structure
4. P.A. on weekly key low

I would anticipate upward movement, but move with caution.

Note

P.A. respected the weekly low, but it could be heading toward the $28685 - $29100 range before heading further down. If not that, I would look for the $30000 level to be broken for futher rallies. We shall see...

Note

P.A. broke the weekly key low. The next low it can come into is the $22000, which is also around old broken structure that was never revisited. I would anticipate a deep retracement (bullish) before the bears reeneter the market.

Note

I would anticipate price to flip bullish around the $25000 - $25350 range, which would start the retracement phase.

I'm sure most don't want to accept the fact that Bitcoin's price is within a HTF bearish leg. Meaning the flow of price is actually on the bear's side UNTIL there's a HTF flip. For now, it's bear IMO.

I'm hoping for a deep pullback in order to drive price down to my projections, which is below $20000. We shall see..

Note

Bearish impulsive + descending channel = usually upward movement. However, I believe the bull price action we witness is only a retracement UNTIL there's a flip from the HTF. We shall all see..

P.S. The key weekly low is intact, but price is within it.

Note

Currently:
M - 🐻
W - 🐂
D - 🐻
H4 - 🐻

Directional bias is still giving more bear than bull. However, Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market so any bull movement should be traded with caution if you're looking to counter-trend trade. 🤷‍♂️

Note

P.A. reacting off weekly key low, bullish engulfing, which turned H4 bullish. Currently.

Note

IF this weekly can close like how it's currentlly forming... I can see next week's weekly candle being a strong bull. Key weekly low supported P.A., and if it closes in it's current state, then that would establish a new M.R.L. for the weekly, which indicates strong bullish momentum. We shall see...

$35200 👀

Note

P.A. has been sandwiched between the $25000 S/R and the 50% PRZ ($31860). However, I believe that it's ready to move higher, but for how long, considering what is waiting up ahead.

Do not be surprised if (or when) price reaches a certain area, and it more than likely find strong bear rejection that'll assist in moving price pretty low.

I'll reserve the rest of my opinion and we'll see how this plays out in the upcoming weeks, months..

Note

M - 🐻
W - 🐂
D - 🐂
H4 - 🐂

Note

Bullish impulsive followed by what looks to be an ascending channel forming right into a key area... bearish sentiment.

We all shall see.

Note

The draw on liquidity is to the upside, but for how long... 🧐🤷‍♂️

Note

As I last stated (look up!)☝🏿 the draw on liquidity was to the upside, but now the tide could be changing very soon.

A.O.I.: $45570 - $48240

What will I be looking to see once price reach that range?

I'm looking for short candle bodies, top wicks, bear momentum to kick up. That's just to name a few, but I am ultimatley bullish. I would wait for a corrective move to start before considering to buy.

I would like to see it retrace back around $31230

Note

Okay, so, here's there range where I'm anticipating the bears to enter:

$45190 - $45750

"Sweet Spot":

$45570

We shall all see. 👀

Note

This current downturn could be the start of the retracement phase. The H4 key low is being broken as I type this, so we shall look to see it cascade over to the daily. I would look for a lower timeframe rally in order to see the continuation form to the downside.

Hold tight!

Note

It's looking like H4's key high ($44050) is about to be broken. If so, the new key low is this range 👉🏿 $41810 - $42275. Meaning that the H4 is bullish UNTIL price breaks through and closes below that range to the downside.

Note

Price broke through H4's key high yesterday (12/23/23), and it's now working on breaking the daily key high. What looks to be forming is a bullish impulsive followed by an ascending channel, which is bearish in nature.

However, there's the new key low along with IMB waiting below to help propel price even higher. I'm still anticipating a nice drop before it really takes off.

We all shall see...

Note

There was a sweep of the double tops on the daily. If price breakthrough the mid range levels, I would look for the $37300 as the 1st area for price to target.

Note

P.A. is forming an ascending channel on the daily. 👀🐻

Note

The ascending channel I mentioned on the 6th has been broken to the downside. Feel free to scale up to read some of my most recent commentary where I speak on this happening.

I have a couple A.O.I. I'm keeping my eye on as price progresses. Looking for further continuation to the downside.

Note

Key H4 low was broken, and new daily lower high was created. 🐻

Note

I'm anticipating price to sweep the current LH ($43185 - $43600) before bearish continuation.

We all shall see...

Note

Ladies and gents, we could actually be witnessing the start of the retracement phase gearing up due to price's current placement in the market.

1. Sweep of daily highs
2. Daily IMB
3. H4 IMB

This is after price broke to the downside, while going through key levels. I would wait to see more price form to determine it's next move. The bears could be ready 🐻

We all shall see...

Note

I'm holding out for a retracement. Looking for $49387 to be broken to the downside. Will that be the start of the correction, finally? I'm no guru, but only time will tell.

We all shall see...

Note

I'm anticipating price to close below 50K, followed by $48300. If so, I believe that's when the retracement phase will begin.

We all shall see..

Note

If P.A. closes below 60K then the next potential level is 52K. 👀

Note

Daily mid-ranges have been established. Price could run the highs, which means the draw on liquidity is to the downside. Even if it's momentarily. The only way I would view it differently is if the mid-range holds to push price higher.

Basically, if price sweeps the highs, I'd look for a break of the mid-range, retest, and drive down.

We all shall see..

Note

👀

$50000 - $52500

ChrisJTradesFX

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