Bullish:
- SPX and NDQ getting close to ATH
- Inflation "transitory", recent 3% CPI print
- "Consumer still strong"
- "AI will massively boost productivity"
- AI advancements
- Strong labor market
Bearish:
- Blackrock ETF filling & CEO going on CNBC hyping BTC (short term bearish)
- Wage growth (5.74%)
- Core CPI at 4.8%
- Core PCE 4.6% (!!)
- "This time is different narrative"
- Expectations of mild recession
- Extreme greed in stock market
- FED committed to reducing balance sheet (reducing liquidity)
- Historically low personal savings (USPS = 4.6%)
- Commercial bank interest rate on credit cards loans HIGH (22.16% as of late July)
Checklist for bottom:
- Rise in bankruptcies
- Unemployment peak
- 10Y2Y and 10Y3M yields still un-inverted
- PMI bottom (V bottom)
- LEI no longer signaling recession
- Capitulation wick?
- SPX and NDQ getting close to ATH
- Inflation "transitory", recent 3% CPI print
- "Consumer still strong"
- "AI will massively boost productivity"
- AI advancements
- Strong labor market
Bearish:
- Blackrock ETF filling & CEO going on CNBC hyping BTC (short term bearish)
- Wage growth (5.74%)
- Core CPI at 4.8%
- Core PCE 4.6% (!!)
- "This time is different narrative"
- Expectations of mild recession
- Extreme greed in stock market
- FED committed to reducing balance sheet (reducing liquidity)
- Historically low personal savings (USPS = 4.6%)
- Commercial bank interest rate on credit cards loans HIGH (22.16% as of late July)
Checklist for bottom:
- Rise in bankruptcies
- Unemployment peak
- 10Y2Y and 10Y3M yields still un-inverted
- PMI bottom (V bottom)
- LEI no longer signaling recession
- Capitulation wick?
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.