Bitcoin and the S&P500
Updated
Over the long-term Bitcoin has had good positive correlation with the stock market for several years now (SPX, DJI, NDX) the best fit is the S&P500 (see below). Just look at the correction here we see that the is in fact often negative correlation taken over a daily time frame, but when we look on a month for month basis we see that indeed the is good positive correlation. Indeed this makes all that mass media hype of bubbles last year look rather silly, surely the torch bearer of neoliberalism the UK Guardian will never print that the DJI is in a bubble, however Bitcoin is a greedy monstrosity and it goes without saying the bubble burst in December theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/13/dont-let-bitcoin-greed-blind-you-to-the-potential-of-blockchain-technology KYE: know your enemy ;)
I know D4rkEnergy recently published a chart on this but I wanted to point out that short-term negative correlations iron out in longer time frames (probably because money flows continuously between stocks and crypto and has done since 2013 at least, but after time the cycles of pump and dump coincide somewhat periodically).
The 2014 bear market
Let's take a long look at this relationship:
We can see that Bitcoin actually has been following the typical stock market S-curve since 2011. Those massive highs of 2013 were due to extreme volatility
the likes of which we'll probably not see again in BTC. The 2014 bear market was nothing but a return to the mean, but what mean? It was a correction for that volatile price action of 2013 that brought us back to the S-curve, very typical of stocks like the S&P500 !!!
Mcafee's Crystal Balls
So what does the future hold for Bitcoin? Doom a la stevepuri ? Not so long as money continues to flow between stocks and crypto. We are very much tied into the world of finance and probably have always been. There is so much illicit / missing money in the US federal budget alone, how much of it has flowed through the cryptoverse alternately pumping stocks and Bitcoin? And that's just the tinfoil hat stuff - the real conspiracies are even bigger.
Let's take a closer look at SPX:
You can see I think we are going to peak in 2020 - that happens to be the same year as the next Bitcoin halving (if you don't know about halvings and their impact on the Bitcoin market I suggest you find out :)). In addition according to the fractal idea, SPX should continue to charge to new highs throughout the year - and I maintain so will Bitcoin, unless a 7 year tried and tested relationship / investment pattern is about to end!
I know D4rkEnergy recently published a chart on this but I wanted to point out that short-term negative correlations iron out in longer time frames (probably because money flows continuously between stocks and crypto and has done since 2013 at least, but after time the cycles of pump and dump coincide somewhat periodically).
The 2014 bear market
Let's take a long look at this relationship:
We can see that Bitcoin actually has been following the typical stock market S-curve since 2011. Those massive highs of 2013 were due to extreme volatility
the likes of which we'll probably not see again in BTC. The 2014 bear market was nothing but a return to the mean, but what mean? It was a correction for that volatile price action of 2013 that brought us back to the S-curve, very typical of stocks like the S&P500 !!!
Mcafee's Crystal Balls
So what does the future hold for Bitcoin? Doom a la stevepuri ? Not so long as money continues to flow between stocks and crypto. We are very much tied into the world of finance and probably have always been. There is so much illicit / missing money in the US federal budget alone, how much of it has flowed through the cryptoverse alternately pumping stocks and Bitcoin? And that's just the tinfoil hat stuff - the real conspiracies are even bigger.
Let's take a closer look at SPX:
You can see I think we are going to peak in 2020 - that happens to be the same year as the next Bitcoin halving (if you don't know about halvings and their impact on the Bitcoin market I suggest you find out :)). In addition according to the fractal idea, SPX should continue to charge to new highs throughout the year - and I maintain so will Bitcoin, unless a 7 year tried and tested relationship / investment pattern is about to end!
Note
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This chart is just looking at positive/negative correlations between SPX and BTC. Here I'm only interested in price direction Note
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Betting against Soros and Buffet. Soros famously bought 2.5 million shares in Overstock.com (OSTK) in Q4 2017 thus entering crypto! Of course for a cynic like Soros the whole thing was nothing but a pump and dump in his eyes. And in Q1 he quietly exited the market, selling all his shares. I don't know exactly when, but whalewisdom lists Soros FM as having sold all their shares by Mar 31. Interestingly this comes days before the news that Soros/Rockefeller etc were entering the Bitcoin market in April which preceded the massive price hike. Maybe I was right to be an unbeliever.
Anyway I don't care if Soros likes crypto or not. In fact both Soros and Buffet have a terrible track record on new technologies. Both of them failed miserably by betting against the rise of the internet and Soros's fave tech is Tesla of all companies; one that is very unlikely to ever make a profit! imo due to its flamboyant leadership. (Sure they've done a lot for e-cars, but BMW, Mercedes, VW etc will take the lead now. Indeed given Soros FM's track record, this is likely another P&D for Soros whose greatest asset seems to be his name.)
So yes I'm betting against George Soros. Soros internet failures:
colorado.edu/economics/courses/econ2020/4111/articles/soros-fund.html
theguardian.com/business/1999/aug/11/15
Note
Here's a look at Bitcoin vs gold and oil. It's clear there is some relationship between these markets and the stock market (see above). In 2010/2011 both gold and Bitcoin were bulling: we see that gold dips when Bitcoin peaks and vice-versa. This indicates safe-haven money flowing between gold and Bitcoin. Later on we see Bitcoin and gold bouncing together (to the week!) - another interesting relationship. We also see the that during 2014 bear market Bitcoin follows gold's bear market (same gradient even) and that oil bounces very hard exactly when Bitcoin bottoms. This, together with the SPX abpve, all indicates that Bitcoin has always been an active part of the trading and investing landscape. I believe that this will be solidified in 2018/19 as more and more stock exchanges start offering crypto trading and more funds start entering the space.Note
Dow Jones Industrial Average Note
Gold vs. Bitcoin <deleted>Note
Global stocks are tumbling and Bitcoin shows strength again. the game of musical chairs continues!Note
BTC and S&P still correlated. 
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