The price of gold has risen by over 20% since the beginning of the year on the commodities market, and the price of bitcoin has returned to equilibrium following a strong rebound in its price since the beginning of April. These two markets follow certain identical correlations, in particular an inverse correlation with the underlying trend of the US dollar on the foreign exchange market. For some, bitcoin has become digital gold since the development of BTC spot ETFs in the USA.
With gold's upward trend seemingly running out of steam in the short term, how can we determine which of the two assets will outperform the other over the coming weeks?
1) The BTC/GOLD ratio as a decisive barometer
Technical analysis of financial markets brings together a number of tools to study the trend and momentum of a financial asset. It also enables comparisons to be made between financial assets, and in particular between two markets.
The ratio tool is used to determine whether one asset outperforms or underperforms another. The ratio consists in creating the curve of a mathematical fraction between a numerator and a denominator, like the BTC/GOLD ratio.
If the trend of this ratio is upwards, then it is the numerator (in this example, BTC is the numerator) that is in an outperformance phase, and the denominator (GOLD in this example) that is in an underperformance phase. The reasoning is reversed if the ratio trend is bearish.
The message of technical analysis currently applied to the BTC/GOLD ratio is unambiguous, with the underlying trend of the BTC/GOLD ratio being bullish. The chart presented here shows the Japanese candlesticks in weekly data, and a double technical support has just kick-started the rise in this ratio: a bullish chartist channel and the ichimoku system cloud.
2) Bitcoin's bullish cycle linked to the halving of spring 2024 ends at the end of 2025
According to the BTC/GOLD ratio, we can therefore consider a sequence of outperformance by the bitcoin price against the gold price over the coming weeks. This anticipation seems credible, given that BTC's bullish cycle linked to the halving of the year 2024 is still far from over. In fact, bitcoin's 4-year cycle always ends at the end of the year following the halving year, i.e. at the end of 2025 for our current cycle.
3) Gold is in extreme technical overbought territory on long-term charts
Technically speaking, monthly momentum indicators are showing extreme overbought territory, which may seem excessive, but no bearish divergence has yet appeared.
We must therefore remain attentive, but not yet jump to conclusions about the end of the bullish cycle. At the current price, GOLD is clearly in a phase of high bullish maturity, and closer to the end of the bull cycle than the beginning.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
With gold's upward trend seemingly running out of steam in the short term, how can we determine which of the two assets will outperform the other over the coming weeks?
1) The BTC/GOLD ratio as a decisive barometer
Technical analysis of financial markets brings together a number of tools to study the trend and momentum of a financial asset. It also enables comparisons to be made between financial assets, and in particular between two markets.
The ratio tool is used to determine whether one asset outperforms or underperforms another. The ratio consists in creating the curve of a mathematical fraction between a numerator and a denominator, like the BTC/GOLD ratio.
If the trend of this ratio is upwards, then it is the numerator (in this example, BTC is the numerator) that is in an outperformance phase, and the denominator (GOLD in this example) that is in an underperformance phase. The reasoning is reversed if the ratio trend is bearish.
The message of technical analysis currently applied to the BTC/GOLD ratio is unambiguous, with the underlying trend of the BTC/GOLD ratio being bullish. The chart presented here shows the Japanese candlesticks in weekly data, and a double technical support has just kick-started the rise in this ratio: a bullish chartist channel and the ichimoku system cloud.
2) Bitcoin's bullish cycle linked to the halving of spring 2024 ends at the end of 2025
According to the BTC/GOLD ratio, we can therefore consider a sequence of outperformance by the bitcoin price against the gold price over the coming weeks. This anticipation seems credible, given that BTC's bullish cycle linked to the halving of the year 2024 is still far from over. In fact, bitcoin's 4-year cycle always ends at the end of the year following the halving year, i.e. at the end of 2025 for our current cycle.
3) Gold is in extreme technical overbought territory on long-term charts
Technically speaking, monthly momentum indicators are showing extreme overbought territory, which may seem excessive, but no bearish divergence has yet appeared.
We must therefore remain attentive, but not yet jump to conclusions about the end of the bullish cycle. At the current price, GOLD is clearly in a phase of high bullish maturity, and closer to the end of the bull cycle than the beginning.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.