BTCUSD Quick scalps [1/5/15m chart]

Updated

Range scalping. Median shifts on HL and LH, currently 10.7k. Harmonic abcd structure ending on major bearish upper trend line, will increase shorts until HLs are confirmed with volume and momentum, in which they will be closed/flipped. Still in 80% cash, and scalping with 10%.

Why I prefer to scalp? More action is less boring and overal better gains on balance in high volatility ranges, a scalpers' dream.
You can use heikin ashi if you prefer with mfi+rsi or rsi+mfi+macd+td for better entries and exits.

Trade active

Close @ C

Keep in mind this is scalping and this is micro trading in a broader macro possible B leg ABC correction, in which C will be the measure move of the current trend (BC of abcd = A of EW; ABC of micro = B of EW; C == A in the downleg).

Trade active

Bought a bit more @ spot in the previous dip.

Target close for both 11k. Why? I'm not going to sleep in coin, volume is weak, have set alarms for breakouts for the bigger play tomorrow london time stock market opening.

Trade closed: target reached

Target reached 11k, 2 spots closed with profit

Next entry tbd. Too much sideways is no entry for me, it's getting a bit hairy at this point.

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Medium risk aggressive entry @ green box (9.6k and a somewhat more conservative @ 9.2-9.3k).

If positioned in, watch closely if bluebox doesn't come resistance. If it is, immediatly sell for small profit, as a reversal might happen, which can go ugly on a larger timeframe.

Target quick scalp @ 11.15k to 11.4. Longer trajectory that involves higher risk and/or longer timeframe @ 11.8-11.9k with high resistance at 12.2k.

Play it safe.

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Blue box @ 10-10.1k. Note that the right fib is inverse extension and left is retracement.

Trade active

Short opened at 11.6k. Following chart I made 14 hours ago. Reason I didn't post was because I had 1 small long open and a small bag of btc (from the liquidation of all my alts (10%, since I'm 90% in fiat)) and missed the price I had set with $12 @ 12.8k...

TP1 = 9.9-10.1k
When it bounces and break red box, close short.

TP2 = 8.8-9.1k

Expect heavy fight back from bulls, but when downward momentum is there, it's not match vs an incoming train (see bottom at 6k). Wait for retracement to flip short to long or just close or settle it to be safe and wait until market settles. Looking at least to pierce through 50% of retracement to 61.80% from dumps to decide.

FA:
Maybe the trend reverses, which I think and have been saying for a long time with my friend milanjelic (also here on TV) that we're heading towards 4.6k, finally to be found in 2.4k range, maybe lower when regulations come in and exchanges are gonna close their doors when they refuse to be audited + open book to capture the market manipulators (spoofing, wash trading, etc.) which is illegal in the financial world with penalties up to 10 years of jail + 10 million usd finer. You know who owns #2 most btc in their pocket and you understand why this is much bigger deal than tether (whether it's backed or not is not important here), btc will eventually die, with or without this coming fud and/or dump eventually coming, not withstanding tech gets obsolete fast, when not maintained and upgraded to serve the needs as utility.

Another argument for the coming bear season is that smart money is not buying here, only joe fomo who gets rekted by market makers and scalpers that do quick trades to take profit away from whales.

Store of value is not an argument, but your rationalization to keep holding your bags. I've heard it all.

This is not bad, as finally the alts will be decoupled from btc, which is so hated by btc maximalists.

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^ 12.8k should be 11.8k (which I missed with $12... shame on me)

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4H golden cross, another confirmation, expect price to bounce around this area of 9.9k.

To look further possibilities: Rebound to red box back to ichimoku cloud, then finally break to enter bear market and hit lower trendline again to go back to sept '17 levels.

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Gonna close @ 10.7k as I want to call it a nice day. This way, I've made the damages whole by the missed profits @ $18 miss from the top. It's probably going to go down much further, will evaluate tomorrow morning london stock market opening time.

Trade closed manually

Closed short scalp @ 11.08k

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Note that the chart is again painted for the dialy, showing a shooting star, which is a reversal sign. Also, on the weekly we cannot close higher than 11.39k in order for a reversal on the TDS, i.e. to continue the bull run by closing lower. Clever manipulation, nothing new in the 7 years of crypto trading.

So it is decided by the powers that be to go lower until sunday. Coincedence with the coming CME settlement on 23 feb? Again exactly the day of CME and CBOE as before or are we making it a self fulling prophecy? With "we" I mean it sarcastic, as all the traders in the world combined who are later to crypto don't even have 1% of the equity of one whalegroup.

Make of it what you will.

Trade active

Trade closed manually

Short closed, be aware of the 8 and the higher low ;)

Will re-enter shortly again :)

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Voilá, there he is #8, will wait for better price to re-enter ;)

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Watch for red arrows (maximalize potential gains)

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A much more interesting pattern is forming on the 4H (H&S) with a coming #8 on the TDS for a small long which can be flipped on the right shoulder + adding more to short for bigger gains. TP would then #1 C and #2 on the resistance red line + bottom of ichimoku cloud.

The short is less risky with better rewards giving the current trend.

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More clear

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Clarification + % targets
High risk entry @ A low reward + low risk entry @ B high reward. Confirm on 1 minute chart with entry on retracement when it holds or don't trade this.

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2nd possibility, which you SHOULD keep in mind, which is MORE likely to play out. Whale manipulators are clever, all the charts & indicators are too obvious, hence the less obvious is LIKELY to play out.

Know thyself and your enemy is half the battle.

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Previous fractal in the making in reverse (see red curve line).
H&S would be invalid if we break neckline prematurely and ABC correction needs to be readjusted to lower C leg to bottom of the cloud, in which possibility #2 becomes more and more like reality.

Caution for short positions that entered late AND that are overleveraged, you want to keep a close eye on the 10.1k.

Trade active

My shorts are filled at 10.8 & 10.9 on the rebound while I was sleeping.
Target safe #1 10.1k.
Looking for target #2 9.65k.

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H&S made invalid. ABC still valid, but don't count on it, as it can be used as coming bulltrap or aggressive bullrun up to 10.9k, as you can see in fractals from previous bubble. Note: possibility.

Short term targets are still in place and likely to be met again.
Mid term targets on early guesstimates in chart below

Trade closed: target reached

Short closed @ 9.8k, target reached
Waiting for next entry in the coming bounce, hopefully we will see a jesus candle, I doubt it will be a big one, if just a minor bounce.

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Next trade buy spot @ 8.8k or short rebounce again ~10.3-10.45, depending on current trend and price + volume action

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Bullish div on the hourly + small timeframe trend reversal in the making.
Waiting for a good re-entry

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Clearification what does what underneath

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Short positions set, let's see what happens.
Heavy resistance point 9.7k. If orders filled and heavy bull bounce, raise stop to 10.3k to lock in profits and limit any risk.

Target is still 8.8k as before, but don't be greedy and set a bit higher, as you can see we're reaching potential endpoint (unless joe "buy the dip" fills whale close orders) ;)

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Quick update: A friend of me pointed out a huge inverted H&S in the making @ 4H. I think that's not going to happen, first of all it's made invalid by prematurely breaking the neckline and secondly, the major bear trend has continued (EW leg 5).

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Aggressive entry 10.2 & 10.3, I'm not entering here, I want best possible returns (as previous 10.8/10.9 rebound short to 9.8). Latter three looks more worthwhile, considering the bullcamp at ~9.8k.

If we look at fractals from previous bubble, my friend can be right to get the illusion of making an inverted h&s, but, fractals show double top @ 11.8, before entering bear cycle.

I'm sticking to the plan.

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Less aggressive entry @ 51.25% right fib + conservative 3rd number + 4th number 'safe'

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Missed a tiny small aggressive short entry with $26. Then went awol and the dump had already happened, went in at the local top at 9.74 in the bounce for the small ride down.

Targets are the same, but, I have closes around around 8.9 and 9.2, as I'm playing safe vs all the shorts who still need to close in the back of my mind.

Trade closed manually

Added more shorts on the higher highs along the way.
Quick scalps, all closed @ 9.6k

Estimated safe bottom based on open shorts vs longs to not get rekted (i.e. jesus candle): 9.6k.

You can aim up to medium/med-high risk 9.2k with high risk up to 8.85k (prepare to have fast fingers).
Do not play with fire if you're not a whale, have some respect.

Re-enter short for whom it may concern to scalp @ 10k (max fib retrace + 200 ema on the 15m) and close at same target.

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^ Last sentence should be: 78.6% + 200 ema on the 5m, my apologies, getting sleepy

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Going as planned like few days ago (see above), targets met. Little pullback for the next one. I see many are again bullish, as usual and going back to alts. I warned people not to do that in my LTC thread before it happened, when will they learn? Maybe when they understand having bags that are worth -90% is not a smart idea. See my why HoDLing is extremely stupid thread. That's why you keep your emotions out of trading.

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Red dotted arrow lines => Fractals based on previous bubble. Based on historical data, the same logarithmic trajectory holds pretty much water from start to now and probably will in the future, although I expect a more serious correction than before, given the formation of 2017's pattern. Very interesting indeed.

Just to give you an idea of market price and movements vs history, rather than predicted outcome. Timing isn't important here, you'd be omnipotent.

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As previous hidden bull div has warned we're near bottom in my chart yesterday, as seen on the 1H and hit 9.6k as predicted, this little bounce was expected. We're still on track.

15 min bear div in the making, which will get stronger the longer we go sit here to confirm it.

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Tenkan coming together with Kinjun for TK cross above cloud on the 4H.
Perma bulls gonna get punished by not following the laws of nature in the coming days.

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TK cross has formed 4 hours ago. The 3 times it happened in this bubble, we go down 25-60% in max a few days after. Last time in '17 was november.

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Many targets hits. Personally I missed good entries with $0.30-$20 for my bigger orders, but my smaller shorts, longs and scalps did great.

Do not forget to be realistic and grounded, since most people and traders are imbalanced, which leads to poor results. See picture.

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Next stop 8.95-9.05 -> 9.5 high probability

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Max bounce here to ~9.6k before ending the wave at pink box. This will be a great evening to watch for the week ending candle.

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correction: ~9.7 with overshoot

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Damp it

Trade active

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Trade closed manually

Heavily manipulation in finex, it was the wisest thing to manually close my shorts for almost break even. Fake pumps and equal opposite walls. Looks like the weekly chart is gonna be painted, as well as the daily... I do not recommend to trade at the moment.

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Abonded baby bottom doji is painted, how wonderful. Coming bull trap catching more plebs and/or new traders is now available as an option, who still are in the denial phase of this bubble correction, which still needs to find it's logarithmical regression. You know they're knew, because they never experienced any bubble, like the two previous we had in bubble and those who're still here are all in cash, by being unrealistic, drawing premature patterns and base their entire expectations and strategy on it and are perma bulls. That's not how you make consistent money, because one needs to be grounded and observant, without emotions or biases.

A fakeout of the major upper trendline is now a possibility. No problem, you won't hear from them when they scream and cry that bitcoin is dead, when it's being accumulated and tinly traded.

Then the [rhetorical] question is, WHO is buying all the way to the top? The people I know who're in since 2011/2013 have already sold in december and some in early January. Anyone who day-/swingtraded bitcoin for years knows how this game is played.

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So that manipulator is probably a group, who collectively opened 1.2k longs at around the same time at the exact top, good job geniuses! They barely moved the price higher. We going down deeper as planned and more shorts are opening despite it. They truly deserve getting liquidated to propel us to at least 8.9k for being a fool and bully traders.

As said before: Early lucky adopter whales -> transfer of wealth -> more intelligent, patient and cunning whales who joined later. Just like with trading. They can always go back to flip burgers again.

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Got one little short filled at around 9.8k when was typing with valtersboze :-) So back in the game at better price. Little bulls trying to make 2nd micro leg before giving up.

Trade active

Closed one small short just before the pump, been long since 9.7k. FOLO with 8.5k shorts can bring us to 11.2k, don't see it happening though, but possibility is there.

TP #1 10.375k (quick scalp)
TP #2 10.5k (safe exit)
TP #3 10.8k (aiming)
TP #4 11.2k (max)

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People ask me how I knew. Because we broke trend EW 3rd leg, which price of 3 > 1. Check my previous scalp charts + explanation where and why you should close short in black text + black box, where I closed if rebound from that fib in black box with conviction.

Also 23 feb I posted chart with bounce areas: I had 9.32k target as my last target, so this was it at 9.28k, 8.8-8.9k won't be seen for a while, if we take path to 11.2 to 11.5k.

Unlike many people who still are bullish, I'm not since december and I'm still bearish. Imho, most are still in denial phase and if we break upper bearish trendline, it will be "normal" phase, before the big dump, i.e. classical bull trap. People will blame the fud again, but in reality it's not true, because every bubble known since mankind always turned out this way, especially high risk/volatile speculative asset classes.

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TP #1 hit for quick scalp, bought small piece back in at 10k in the highly likely coming pump.

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New targets

Trade closed manually

Possible bull trap, closed prematurely under tp $100

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Can it break out of the cloud, previous fib resistances, high volume nodes, upper major bear channel and kijun?? I doubt it... only when the 8k shorts close, but why should they if buying power is dryed out. Taken profit, will watch if it breaks out with conviction.

Trade active

Got a nice reentry @ 10.25k. Daily close bull trap was a false positive, see no anomalies, so targets are the same.

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Stophunting scumbaggery dump and pump. Regulations are indeed a good thing.

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Overextension as usual without any serious pullback. This cycle will be thunder for joe fomo and jane folo.

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Scalp position

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^ Super aggro

v Aggro (based on 4H TF ichi)

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Bottom scalped, keep tracking and keep eye on

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Adjusted TP range

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How to take profit away from big retail traders by scalping
imgur.com/a/Gw52h

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Adjusted TP range (missed the "." :-))

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Long closed

Trade closed: target reached

Targets reached 3 hours ago + scalp closed ^

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Bulls desperately trying to close the 4h candle in their favor, but will they succeed with a fraction of volume? ;-)

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Pretty indecisive close on the 4h candle, bulls placed hidden buy wall.
Last time we're in the somewhat same situation was last week 20-02-'18 before the dump at the major upper bear trindline as well. Again low volume from bulls, with +300 points. Bulls are trying to force their way. Draw your own conclusions.

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Bulls still trying to fight a losing battle, trying to force up without buying power. Buy high, sell low.

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Updated targets. I do not recommend to open positions.
Scalping is FINE, use spot buy/sell and take profit away from dirty market maker pump and dump manipulators.

They don't care about price, but marketshare, until regulations are in place and exchanges need to have open book, they will cash out before getting caught and jailed, do NEVER forget. That's how criminals work, always have been and always will be and that's what 95% of you do not understand and that's how they make their money, doesn't matter if it's mlm, ponzi, scam, enron, etc. it's all the same psychology and strategy.

Trade with caution in the killzone. Do not scalp if you don't have time to sit behind monitors, at least wait until HL's and HH's and set stop accordingly to have profit if you need to go away from screen.

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New targets, my scalp is about to finish soon

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Bigger micro picture trade range scalping + scaling

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Bitcoin Pump and Dump, same time and same longs as yesterday 11:00 to 11:10 pm cet. Pump it up, then dump it. Merchants adopting crypto "currency"? I don't think so.

imgur.com/a/RNH0E

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Daily finished strongly. Expect a bullrun to at least 11.8k-12k (double tops + resistance from cloud + chikou span prev top) without a serious pullback. It's fine to ride it instead of scalping.
End target is 13k, which will be a major resistance line, 51.25% fib on the macro structure and previous macro fib 61.80%, so expect HEAVY resistance at 13k.

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Daily

New targets for scalp (spot) + medium term trade (long)

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^ Stop loss should be below 200 daily ma + previous swing low + under cloud + major bearish upper trendline => 10.15k

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So it turns out the chart I've made 18 hours ago hit top exactly with ~$20 off again. Then use that chart to determine re-entry, even now for super aggro entry is pretty good for spot scalp and even intraday/med term trade @ 10.75k or use target 10.5-10.7 from chart if you're greedy. It's possible in micro structure (for scalping) this is A leg, reassess on B.

The chart from 14 hours ago (after daily close) is valid for the longer med term, as stated before. Now that this pullback is still ongoing, I expect orange scalp spot @ 11.2k to bypass without too much struggle until 11.4-11.5k, so you might cancel order for higher target. Reassess there for scalp and/or keep long position open until 11.8 (take profit).

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It's possible we going to retest support block 3 @ 10.45k, so that would be an excellent buy zone. See above image.

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There are some misconceptions about scalping vs med-term trading.
To answer pm's:
- Scalping very short term, mainly looking at 1m + 5m + 15m chart and ema's + rsi + mfi + macd + tdi (1 tab open 1m + 5m + 15m + 1h + 4h);
- Trading, looking at major support + resistance zones + fib for pullbacks + all previous mentioned indicators (+ ichimoku + tds + stoch) (1 tab open 1h + 4h + daily);
- No scalping 4h before daily close;
- Scalping < 3% fiat; Trading (at the moment) < 15% fiat

Note: Scalping is high risk vs quick returns and should only be done when you sit behind monitors all time. Scalps can be done on mex with perps.
I recommend to have at least 3 monitors, 4 is preferable.
For med term trading at least 1 monitor + tv/tablet/laptop (for news).

Trade closed: target reached

TP's in orange boxes reached.

For scalp, good entry @ 10.925k at aqua dotted line, which keeps moving up if we keep going up. This coincides with earlier chart buyback area @ 10.95k. Your TP will then of course be the resistance @ 11.4k.

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Warning: HUGE rising wedge at this critical point. I advise NOT to scalp atm and trade on the breakout. On basis of probability, high chance we go down to around ~10.6.

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Short scalp few hundred pts

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Orderbook finex $650 gap buy side. 11.4 -> 11.37 = 65btc; next order @ 10.74... cumulative 113btc. Artificial pump.

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Bear bastion @ 11.7k + 11.725k using MP. Hidden orders as well. Little volume won't cut it.

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For those who have the balls to quickly short scalp in a momentous bullrun

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If 10.9k doesn't hold and 10.45k doesn't as well, expect some downward volume and a correction to 8.9-9k is due (green D leg). See chart from 1 March.

Trade active

TP's adjusted and set. Block 1 is for a longer stage support, not now, when pullback is done.

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Adding more towards the double top + unloading

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Woohoo, pump and dump day 3!
Same longs closing same time and reopening after for huge discount, who could have thought that with $700 gap in buy orders :)

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Timing is one hour at 10 pm CET vs yesterday 11pm CET and day before yesterday 11pm CET. Isn't hard to correlate it to the same entity.

imgur.com/a/WQiyZ

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^ Timing is one hours off*
Look at positions, total count same size as reopening, it is like magic :)

Trade closed manually

Pump and dump day 3, short closed with profit. Shady shit going on.

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Artificial demand created by bot pump with 0.1 btc orders for last few days was obvious when daytrading all day long and then charts messed up with various different little whales, cmon at least randomize your code to make it less obvious.

Targets still stand for scalp.

People request for swing trade setups, maybe I should make a different thread for it, although any major support is a good entry for that. Look my chart from 1 March, you're looking for entry 9.6k or big support zone at 8.9-9.2k, which btc should already have retraced to for healthy move upwards.

Observations:
11.5k hit, EXACTLY fractal of bubble '14.
12.8k is the fractal from '11, I'd sell hard everything before it.

Don't fall in fomo, it will be your biggest mistake.
Patience, mindset and having a plan are a virtue in this crazy game.

If you know what you're doing, you can scalp all day long and take profit away from dirty bots with ease. There is no need for me to update chart every 10 minutes to let you know where entry and exit is.

Volatility Scalping: 1 minute chart is your friend, especially in pump and dump. I recommend to myself to have advanced level 2 market profile window open to detect good entries and exits and hidden orders. Forget about ta, go with your observations and experience and show no emotions. Price is king. Good luck hunting and make that profit.

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Quick update:
Important to watch the daily. Right now, it's showing a dragonfly doji, so 50-50 bullish continuation or reversal. For scalpers with open positions, you might consider to close and trade the breakout. Pretty indecisive match at this point, especially considering it's weekends. Many shorts have already closed and many longs still open, so anything can happen to either side with a big bang.

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New targets + notes in chart. You might want to read what's going on if you ain't daytrading for at least 16 hours/day and have alarms set that can wake you up 24/7, so you ain't missing out.

Targets are based on chart painting, despite low volume, it is what it is, manipulation or not, we're here to make profits and/or increase our marketshare.

I expect a heavier pullback from double top, instead of this very weak retracement, which happened to be in weekend. Watch out for tomorrow (monday) london stock opening time before deciding what to do now, despite a possible breakout, which I don't think, imho we consolidate here at least until that time.

My argument is strengtent by the fact that some alts are doing very good, which will soon be suppressed by btc again and small whales want to sell of their btc bag profits in fiat.

If we go through 11.8k, 12k should be easy until 12.4k. If we don't retrace, expect 12.8k before dumping, otherwise 13k'ish, which would be the max to respect ichimoku, previous major resistance zones + fib from '17 major bullrun.

If we break 13k with conviction, the road of bear market is cleared OR it can be bulltrap as seen in every bubble in history, we can only tell that with time and breaking 14.4k. I highly doubt this will happen, because 13k needs to be done before 15 March. Of course, anything can happen, it's not about ego or being right, as those will destroy you in the end by your own doing. It's about being truthful, possibilities and profitability.

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People keep asking me if I'm bullish or bearish + harassing for my bearish views. So this update is going to get out right now to set things straight.

I'm neutral and go where the market is going. I still think we'll see the bear market very, very soon and you will find my arguments (so to answer your questions: short term = bearish; long term = bullish, especially blockchain) @

Also, I've gave extra arguments in here for that. I'm a natural contrarian, but I'm very realistic and objective. I know when I'm right when the masses call me wrong, like I called the bubble in december. Every pro daytrader called it a bubble, we were called idiots when we were selling most of our bags around 19.2k, whatever plebs, we were right after all and it's not about being right or wrong anyway.

95% of crypto traders you'll never hear from again that are on tradingview. This chat was empty of cryptotraders in '14-'16. Newbies started coming end of 2017. Most of crypto traders publishing charts are no daytraders, but have regular jobs. Most of them are the newbies from end '17. Most of them don't know anything about trading, psychology, risk- and moneymanagement, let alone finances, taxes and entrepreneurship and have never traded in the forex, stock and commoditymarket before. Yes, I trade those as well on my premium account for work. My private account is for crypto only + writing and testing scripts and an trading platform in the making.

Most of us who still are here who daytraded have lost a lot of money if not everything (inc. me) and started over and over like most entrepreneurs, because of exchange related issues, not trading (closing doors, hacks, flash crashes, broken website, etc.). If you're one of them or can live with that and start over from scratch, that's awesome and I'd like to hear from you. Many joe smoes have quit because of this and it's a shame.

Never follow the advice of anybody, including me. I don't give financial advice, but my own opinion and views and what I'd do. Be very careful, you also don't know what their and my motives are. If it gives you insight, great, but don't copy other people, please. Don't be a sheeple, but be a shepherd or a wolf, I don't care. Use your intellect and creativity to empower yourself and use that profit to enrich your life that give you also freedom and choices. You cannot help others if you cannot help yourself. In the end, it's a win-win for everyone to master the things you love to do and help and inspire others.

What I do hope is that you find my posts insightful and educational and that you make consistent profits. I'm not here to sell my bags of shitcoins, as I'm 100% fiat in trading. I have one long term investment which I never named here before and intend to keep it that way.

Happy weekend :-)

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I'm not in a trade right now, it can go both ways, but I lean down.

Look at daily chart and look what you see. A picture says a 1000 words, so I don't have to say more (yellow line = Tenkan; green label = buy; red = sell) :-)

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Short in the next pump.

- Bots are running out of money for fake pump. They need fresh money from suckers buying here.
- Alts are bleeding and whales have filled their btc bags which they want to liquidate soon.
- Bitcoin transactions at an all time low today since 2 years.

Don't believe the bs fomo or you end up with buying at the top. You can always buy back in to trade at a much better price.

No stop loss, hedged with fiat to sit it out to 150k/coin before margin call. When regulations come in, those market manipulators have already cashed out and price will tank.

TP1 = 10.8k, TP2 = 9.6 and TP 3 = 9.k. Expect some volatility and wicks when last bunch of suckers got dumped upon.

Trade active

There we go

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Targets set. Green boxes are for scalps (close there). 21 February I created chart with ABC correction. Since price has changed, B and C are adjusted. That is, IF we're in ABC. 15 march is almost here, so keep an eye on that for confirmation.

If correction goes to C, that is a whopping 9.2k, where BTC should have been (to 8.9k before), since this entire bull run is again fake as I've warned you before. Perma bulls have biases and couldn't see the obvious fake bot pumps to double top and their cash equity was running out. Joe smoe ain't buying, masses you don't hear about crypto anymore, volume is weak, so if you have a few braincells, ask the question who is? The only way to make money is for somebody else to buy higher than you did. Obvious, no? It's simple supply and demand, fake or not.

Correction is normal. If it wasn't for bots and pnd, BTC price would have already been sub 2k and almost no volatility, so at least be happy for easy profits, whether you swing trade, range trade or scalp. For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction, simple laws of nature and the universe :-)

Longer term is less profitable in my experience if you don't know how to scalp on a 1 minute chart and an immediate reversal can always happen with crypto while you're away, hence SL for that. Remember, 2% reinvested/-traded profit a day is ~100% a month. Look at chart where I've scalped and count the wins vs losses + percentage, while you keep "holding"/swingtrading, I made much, much more. You also get a lot better at daytrading and learning the game than one trade here or there. No such things as overtrading in a high volatile market.

I don't have SL at the moment as I've said before and I don't trade with indicators on 1 minute chart. I've set alarms when shtf. I do use it on larger timeframes however, to see the bigger picture and set my goals.

You can set SL now at 11.6 if you're scared or set TP at first two green boxes.
For longer term and bigger positions, caution is advised, so set SL at 11.65k. If it turns against you, at least you have realized profits, albeit limited vs scalp.

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So it went exactly as expected and hit first tp right on the local bottom for the scalpers amongst us, which hit my tp and I reshorted same amount on bounce top whilst awol. The likely hood of 10.6k bigger bounce is small, but good enough for scalp next target. 10.275k would be better, lets see if this minor support holds.
9.8k better target and still is valid for next tp. I'll scale in spot buy starting from ~9.6k to 8.9k.

For range trade, lower SL to 11.3 and enjoy the ride :-)

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It's scalpers time here. Either close your shorts from top or set SL higher.

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New targets for both longs and shorts + spot scalps

tradingview.com/chart/eUFFWhcO/

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Someone opened big short in the middle of trading range, causing drop and then somebody opened big short at the bottom with longs closing together, it didn't dipped much further as expected and said before (the $700 gap, 10.7k are static real buyers), so local lows for today are almost in. It's good to buy now and scalp this before daily close to see what tomorrow brings further.

Those guys shorting the bottom are done for today, good job.

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^ of course, if there are enough buyers or it will keep dropping down

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Some group decided to close together 600 btc longs and since there are a lot of longs open, it can cascade toward 9.6k with ease. No trade zone atm.

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TP2 reached, going for 10.3k then 9.6k when those longs get liquidated and/or close :-)

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Update

Trade closed: target reached

TP1 + TP2 reached, shorts closed. I'm scalping this range, before reopening shorts.

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Got shaken out in a quick scalp I played on the bounce in wave 3... it should have gone close to 11k and it mini dumped to double bottom to immediately pump towards my target reaching 10.9k, as to liquidate a high level account, so bad luck there, as from structure hls and wavecount it shouldn't dump, but it did, for motive given.

So shorted at 10.75k to 10.45k which hit 10.4k bottom to make up for my losses there with orders set and forget which executed in the morning, except one exchange which holds premiums (or people are just chicken to buy)... So that lost scalp is made back.

People say it's impossible to know, but it's not when same patterns repeat for years on end, timing is though. And yes, since perps became big, it's getting riskier to scalp the bounces in correction (almost like catching knives), but it's part of the game and becoming a better trader to trade the 1 minute chart and experience it yourself to get a better understanding what's going in the trading zone and your innerself.

Bottom is almost in, 10.2-10.3 (can go deeper when legit panic sellers), but you'd miss out. That would be a better range and % to trade with less risk.

Trade active

Orders got filled while awol, alarms going crazy right now. Bought some spot at 10-10.35k. News (fomo/fud) is just katalysator what is already seen in the charts, but it is what it is. You can buy it back from me at premium ;-)

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Buying more on spot, love fud news. No positions, only spot. Will see on the bounce how big it will be when jesus candle come out when bottom shorters will be liquidated, it will be beautiful and one to remember :-)

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Well, well, looks like we stopped exactly to form that huge inverted head & shoulders to 17k. Check daily chart, starting from 17 jan.

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Buy the dip, let's go

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Pullback here before 10.4k tops, then last wave finish just below 9.4k. Don't panic sell, alts are doing great with all those btc bag holders if you want to hedge.

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Hedged with some shitcoin, will make some profit here in btc then dump it for fiat when btc goes up again.

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8.8-9.2k become more of a reality since I created charts @ 1 March. There should be a good bounce to a tops of 10.8k (overshoot 11k maximum). You probably want to liquidate your alts to btc when btc bottoms and sell btc to fiat and sit on sidelines for at least a few days thereafter in this cycle ending next week to end of month. ETA bounce < 1 week.

Overall predictions for what is coming is materializing faster than I've expected. See my other thread "Why HoDLing is stupid".

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To answer some pm's: Yep, 13k is possible still, but we have to watch for orderbooks entire day or use advanced orderbook level 2 to determine which is real orders and which is fake. Low volume fake bot pumps won't cut it like I said many times before.

If manufactured bullrun again, then can short from 12.8-13k without too much risk, but too early to say. What is known is that fractals are almost hit 100% of time, it's like magic :-)

So plan still stands, better be safe than sorry (i.e. protection of wealth => money management). It's pretty much a killzone right here, which means no trades or very high risk scalps with bad risk reward, up to you. I give no financial advice and everything I write here is based on my opinion and somewhat of a partial diary.

Trade active

My long got hit at 9.15k. Got another at 8.85k, which coincides with 51.25% since 6k, so let's see if we continue bull run to 12.8 or enter bear. SL 7.8k.

It's going for full correction with this C-leg which is due, since we didn't correct at 11.8k, which seems we do now from 11.7k.

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The daily looks super bearish. Don't be surprised if we break that trendline where it bounces from 6k and we enter bear market. It will also be the end of many traders and exchanges. So it's in their hands how they wanna play this game, if they haven't cashed out a large stack since this last bull run to being with. Makes you wonder, huh?

Funny observation how we replicate '14 this way to the teeth, this time much, much worse, since many more people will lose even more money.

Trade closed manually

Closed long from 9.15k small profit, canceled 8.85k.

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I've looked back at my fractals from '14. The same huge trajectory is being played out, I mean the dumps are almost of same size and time.
Previous double top was 11.5 (and yes, it made that double top too) and it went to 9.6 to go directly to 7.9k to bounce to 9.1 (those are based on log scale 1:1).

I think we're in much more dangerous territory now than mtgox was. A hack is one thing, a crackdown on exchanges is a whole other beast. Third time is the charm and I'm fairly sure this will go in the history books.

3 digits might become a reality soon before summer when the real panic starts to set in by hodlers, early investors and early big retail firms.

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I wanted to copy-paste dow theory bulltrap from my other post, but it submitted with 3 empty lines, but here it is:

Dow's theory @ bulltrap
forex-central.net/img/Dow-theory-chart-1.jpg

Notice just how perfect that is and I posted it before we made that double top, I didn't even realize it until now :-)

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To answer PM's: Nope, I'm not buying anymore, I would have bought it here to scalp, but this ain't a retracement anymore. It's pure dump and lack of buyers all day long for btc and most of alts means people are exiting. Why would you otherwise sell everything for a huge loss, unless bots want to dry it up to accumulate bottom.

I have orders around 6k because that's where most people have their orders. Most of order book above it is fake. It's filled by bots, whales and traders and mostly are there by positions. So when those longs get liquidated, it's a rocket downwards in no time.

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If we break 7.5k in above chart's pitchfork before the end of the cycle @ 15 March, expect the big bad bear for this year.

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Gonna buy spot at 7.85-7.95k, set & forget, have to go tomorrow for big part of the day. Will update if I see reversals in the market. I'm not too confident with so many longs open at finex while having such a thin orderbook all the way to 6k, but no risk is no reward... We will see.

Order cancelled

Order books looks really bad. Looking in details from level 2 MP and current open positions, if we pierce through 7.2-7.8 a lot of longs will be liquidated and it will be a rocket to 6k where real big orders are placed. I think it will then go further downwards, as there are no real buyers other than scalpers and those who use their unrealized PnL to reopen shorts at the bottom...

I've put my next buy orders around 5k. I'll be awol for the day, so I won't scalp the bounces. Ain't such thing as a double bottom at 6k in a dump, which I expect will come next week. Alt market is completely dryed out. No volume at all, so I think we entered the bear market with that double top as a classical bull trap before the crash to fit dow's theory + wallstreet market cycle.

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As almost always, weekends is when the little whales have fun pumping and dumping. Expect some upwards momentum for btc and some alts before dumping sunday night / monday, just like last week, or just about entire last years.

Will do my analysis and calculations soon for new chart. Need a coffee first.

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Traditional support lines (fuchsia)
Fib positive + inverse (scary how the inverse places out nicely)
% wise dumps + bounces

Traditional support lines - anchor points

If we break that lower gray trendline, we've entered the bear market. Next cycle top then will most likely be 8.8k. So keep that in mind for the next time you want to sell and/or short the top.

I expect a final dump to 7.8k, but as weekend is now in, the kindergarten has opened for little whales to paint the chart to make it look like bullish on the daily, don't fall for the trap. Sunday night/monday is usually continual dump from the big boys.

7.8k, why? Fib + classical support line + fractal bubble '14.
I'm very worried about the bounce, because that bounce to 9.25k has now already been made by fake pump (watch hundreds of bot orders executed same time, then ~5 seconds nothing, rinse-repeat last hours I've watched)... fake volume created. That means, we can go much lower or bottom out and consolidate at that point for a few days with weak bounce to make it look very bearish.

7.15k is thunder area and will most likely be followed to 5.9k with dead cat bounce to go to 4.9k. People panic sell around 6-6.5k and longs get liquidated around 6-7.2k => rocket down.

Extremely high risk now, since bitcoin cycle ending 15 march and bounce already happening. Expect more fud next week. Seems like some bag holders wanting to exit at better price. If you want to get in, only buy major support and sell the bounce.

If dump over, then wait for confirmation by going back once more around bottom before bouncing with conviction. Those are always your best entries. 5/15m chart required + drawing fib swing low-high. Should bounce from first fib from the ground up, if not, do not enter.

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Hello, do you see any correlations?

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^ Oh, and look at that sell volume at GDAX, it's even more than at Finex last few days. You cashing out mate, you know something we don't that is coming next week?

09-04-'18 = 41.9k (2 min ending)
08-04-'18 = 23.3k
07-04-'18 = 32.4k
06-04-'18 = 18.3k
05-04-'18 = 7k
04-03-'18 = 2.9k

20-02-'18 = 6.4k

06-02-'18 = 19.2k
05-02-'18 = 13k;

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^ Finex

09-04-'18 = 98.2k
08-04-'18 = 67.7k
07-04-'18 = 75.2k
06-04-'18 = 44.2k
05-04-'18 = 27.6k
04-04-'18 = 28k

20-02-'18 = 60.9k

06-02-'18 = 192.7k
05-02-'18 = 131.3k

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What's wrong with 5 & 6 feb vs 6-9 March relatively speaking:
- Very low volume at 6k at gdax vs finex most volume
- Very high volume last few days at gdax vs finex medium volume

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Chart from GDAX notes say 04 = April, should be 03 = March, thanks buddy for the notification, you know who you're! :-))

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Don't be fooled by this bullrun in weekend. Shorts keep opening and those huge longs are closing when they got enough suckers in to dump again. It's too obvious, yet, again.

7.8k is maybe too much since this bounce. 7.7 is already considered a weak support.
6.9-7.1k is where some real orders are sitting, hidden or not and where there is some real demand. Let's find out soon.

imgur.com/a/2HMst

High risk scalp entry @ 7.7k.
Regular buyzone @ 6.9-7.1k.

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Better chart, volume + price correlations weekends in main trend (up/down) + volume massive selloff bigger than 6k bottom.

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It's hitting prior support which became resistance in my purple line. It can go to 9.8k, which is a good price to short hard. I'm going awol now, but have put some short taker orders ready.

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If regulated, many people will face jailtime and/or complete asset forfeiture. Pumping and promoting is forbidden in financial world, yet people exponentially continue, mostly young ignorant bagholders desperately trying to sell of on their followers looking for exit as they cannot stand their portfolio losses. This will be the story of the century and some kind of "wealth redistribution". Telling "I didn't know" is no excuse, "you'll know" is the answer for that.

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New targets set for both scenario's and it's pretty tight and complete. Have backtested it with my algos. Set tights stops for what is most likely coming next week.

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Extremely high risk scalp. I do not recommend to enter, at all.
It can fall after coming fake bullrun / bulltrap 9.8 with a max of 10.35k all the way down to sub 8k.

We're still missing one leg down. This ain't 'normal' people [spot] buying, but little whales playing with positions that almost always pull the rug from under you, since order book is extremely tin on both sides and people ain't buying en masse. Caution is advised.

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I dont recommend to use fibs in a dump or pump, they almost never end up there with massive overshoots, only for the bounce. Seems algo bots aren't fake pumping since this dump. Will post a chart soon with better entries, since situation has changed. I'm fairly sure we'll go lower than previous targets, so aggressive entries @ 7.9 are hereby CANCELED and moved to 7.5. I see indicators and classical chart patterns + level 2 MP that are way more reliable, especially level 2 MP which is current and not lagging.
Conservative target entry 7k.

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It can form an M right here, aggressive short in place

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6.35-6.5k seems to be too perfect with so many indicators and convergences coming together. I'll go long there. What an excellent area that is pretty much a textbook buy area.

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Pump and Dump bitcoin again using positions of 200-500 btc a piece vs joe smoe's tiny spot buys, who wins you think.
Be careful not to get dumped upon again BEFORE news comes out ;-)
Much more fud to come before this month ends.

I think real joe smoe buyers are already out, too scared to lose again -25% in a day, who can blame them. They probably come back when regulations are in effect, then bitcoin price would be "cheap" when manipulators have cashed out before they're getting caught.
Easy to see when buy volume is extremely low on the only 3 fiat exchanges where you can not infinitely short to $0. Who're you fooling here?

imgur.com/a/tPbFN

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It's becoming obvious they're going to paint the weekly chart, but it doesn't matter, because any candle stick will be bearish if we do not make higher highs from previous week and week before, which becomes somewhat impossible at this point 5 hours before closing. Happy scalping if you're in. I'm waiting for a pullback to take some profit away from those whales and keep adding to my short before daily and weekly close. Then we go most likely go down again to predefined targets.

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High risk scalp, not recommended to step in, only after pullback with very tight stop loss at previous swing low. High risk to to do just 4 hours before daily close and coming fud, especially g20 19-20 march.

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Didn't got filled by $20... it is what it is. Here is the roadmap for scalp

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For bullish scenario. Tight stops are required, we don't wanna get screwed over again by -13% instant dump. Can raise stop with each wave to previous low - ~1% or just below leg 2.

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Nope I do not think we go to 10.88k, as 10.45k is a major resistance and we again break 3rd leg. We haven't finished 3th leg to 7.9 yet.

Trade active

Trade closed manually

Scalp closed with tiny profit. This ain't looking bullish at all. We should have gone to 7.9k before going to 9.7k. This also coincides with previous fractals.

And remember, no scalp just before daily close.

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Leg 5 broke again too soon before reaching 10k. Roadmap therefore needs to be adjusted, as this correction goes faster than expected and prices have changed.
Next run is just too perfect to 10.45k where it convergences with earlier assessments...

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The dump is on.

"We are in bear market!!!", "Cancel All Orders!!!!!"
youtube.com/watch?v=079RCUtk8s4

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Long to TP targets in chart

Trade active

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Someone is definitely trying to play and force the markets.
As you can see, the tiny resistance at pink line in chart I made yesterday at 9.48k became significant enough for a substantial dump earlier this morning when price exactly hit that... The same thing happened 11 March (see chart posted then) when I drew that resistance line (9.86k) and few hours later wave 5 stopped prematurely on exactly that line as well.

Targets still stand and expanded the roadmap possibilities, including the ascending broadening wedge, yet again. BTC is at a crossroads at either 10.45k and the entire lower aqua trendline.

Great range to scalp with tight stops for hours-days to come.

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Massive manipulation going on or whale groups fighting eachother, anyway, it's a no trade zone. Elliot waves keep breaking prematurely and pump and dumps are unpredictable in what size and somewhat time, it's becoming gambling at this point instead of a better chance to win in a game of probabilities (kelly criterium).

I was sleeping when we hit that 9.48k or I'd have sold my scalp here and rebuying the bottom of the wedge. It's a no brainer to sell it on the pink descending line.

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Solid blue lines is higher probability than dashed at the moment of writing. For scalping only on both smaller (blue box) + higher TF (green box). Dark green boxes I still have @ 6.5k in worse case mid term scenario, that's where I've got large long positions waiting.

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^ I forgot another aggressive entry blue box short time scalp @ 8.75k at bottom of pink local bottom trendline

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^ Aqua broadening ascending wedge range scalping ONLY valid when we break 9.45 and staying above it. It's extremely high risk to buy mid range which can become the top, that is, if you ain't market maker.

I'm looking for aggressive 8.75 with SL 8.55 and buy more at 8.05 for the potential bounce, depends if it's going to be dumped again, then I won't enter. Catch falling knives is dangerous when the exchanges are unable fill or cancel your orders.

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It should break out the descending triangle / wedge to at least 9.45k. I'd scalp it to 9.4k and wait what it will do. It can go both ways, volume is weak and more fud is coming soon. I rather short 10.4-10.45k than to play this manipulative game. The more they stall time, the worse it will get.

Trade closed: target reached

I'd wait now (no financial advice). The longer we wait, the safer it is to say we're going down.
Keep close eye on 9.45k. Break it is back to scalping. If we stay here, a dump can happen anytime until the 20th.

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Overview bull vs bear scenario. More confluences on the bear side, which is more likely scenario, given market sentiment and bots not pumping again. Possible that whales gonna pump it higher and in medium term they gonna create fake bullrun again to unload their bags, since they got filled at 8.4-8.5 to create that bottom, but that probability is so low given circumstances and that they scared of many traders and investors that the latter are going to sell the moment we go there, based on psychology. We will see how much capital they still have left to use their bots again or was it the exchanges themselves. I can see a lot of accounts being liquidated. Killzone is active and RR is so low atm, this is only an area for scalpers imho.

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We haven't finished 5th leg guys... and ew counts are messed up. Many traders are confused and think we had abc correction, including me last afternoon. I've calculated and backtested with my algo and I think we're currently in A leg and bulltrap that will come at B when everybody thinks we're going to 10.45k to go to our bottom at C, which then finished macro structure and this current micro correction...

Bottom should be 7.8k before we even attempt to go to 10.45k... so the more time will pass, the more likely a dump will happen. I'm not in a trade anymore, waiting for that bottom or at least until 21th.

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^ 2x broken 5th leg (not even truncated) as you can see, this ain't making sense but completing C. See all the bear convergences.

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^ The count that is not obvious since truncated 5th leg vs that what is obvious except abc below chart. Then bottom is 7.9k in this scenario.

Sure we can go to 10.2k, but I rather short it there than to enter such broken market move. Fractals at 22 look pretty much similar, but more organic.

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Extremely stupid to place a 1k long without following up and price barely moved and already back to same market price. He's probably sweating his pants right now at a time just before bad news is coming out at any point this entire week and no real buyers are seen. It's safe to assume that it's the fuel needed for a rocket down when that time comes to new lows.

I do not recommend at all to trade atm. The rug can be pulled from under you at any point (i.e. pump and dump). If you trade there with SL, good luck with selling that bottom. Or was this the intent to paint that head & shoulders to target? One might wonder... and wonder if it's the same guy or group that is doing this for weeks on end, it's definitely not joe smoe and we all know it.

imgur.com/a/I6U70

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Well, almost nothing has changed, but the descending aqua line is going lower and lower and forming a pennant within the bigger pennant of the black lines.

If whales wanna prolong the bear market, be my guest, I've got patience and that money is going elsewhere in the meantime back to forex slowly but gradually. Trust is totally gone and people going to know about market manipulation, but I know they will continue with their shady games until the moment the first whales are being caught.

Why paying more when I can buy for much less soon, especially when I can't sell it for higher. My RR and ROI are better with new projects coming out paid in fiat than I'll ever get with something that already went up millions of times. All it takes is to find the next google, amazon or facebook.

Mr Whale, I've got buy orders at 7.5, 7.8, 7.9 and 8.
Mr Whale, I've got longs at 6, 6.2 and 6.5.
Mr Whale, I've got shorts at 9.9, 10.2 and 10.45.
Mr Whale, I've got plenty of patience, no rollover fees and no stress.

What are you going to do?

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Going as planned. Was busy analyzing data on current chart and don't wanna erase what I'm doing so I did some quick calculations of what scalp roadmap looks like now on that chart. Timeframe is longer, as I'm not willing to do 5-30m charts anymore, it's too much work and you get late alerts when I already entered or exited.

For bullish trendreversal, we need to go to 13k by breaking 10.45k first. If you can think, it's way too unlikely, especially what is coming next week and going in to spring cycle.

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Target exactly hit. I'm not in yet, waiting for test of 8k before buying in.

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I wanna see a retest of 8k, so we can break local resistance in wave 3 @ 8.4 with stop @ 8.65 before ending @ 9.1k or we end up with 8.4 as top again...

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I've backtested points with past data and fractals of 29 January fit this pattern. Caution is advised, see chart for 2 line fractals (source = closed), especially with 1 workday left. 8.4k should be easily hit and normal trajectory 9.1 to 9.4 for sell.

I expect weekend pump again, until that time can go both ways, but the short term favor is for the bulls for a very good profit scalp RR wise. If there is more fud coming tomorrow, it can go straight to leg II (thereby skipping leg I) @ 6.5k, before weekend pump sets in.

Both bulls and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

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WARNING: I think it's a bulltrap again and won't pass even leg A as the three times before. TP should be set at 8.4k or stop loss raised to 8k. Taking profit is much better imho to not get hunted or selling the bottom. Remember, this is a scalp and shorting makes more profit than longing or spot buys when the bulls aren't that strong to push for higher prices and keep it in check.

Now even perma bulls see we're in bear season after they fell for the textbook "normal phase" of wallstreet bubble cycle psychology which I've warned you for weeks now. First signs were the break of the fib at pullback ~20k and confirmed by making new higher high in leg 1 after C, which could have gotten you a good exit at 17k. The double top is a classical hundreds of years old bulltrap before the crash. And no, news has nothing to do with it. It's an excuse to dump hard with 15 to 20% as otherwise you could have closed with small losses or even profit when we gradually fell for 5 to 10% a day.

Let it drop to 7.5k and wait for tomorrow london stock market close, so they don't have excuse to dump if more fud is coming and ride the weekend pump, is less risk, better reward.

Swing trades: I'm going long at leg II 6.5k (small size) and leg IV 5.4k (decent size).
My final target for correction 15-09-'17 is 3.3k to load up the first coins for a bigger serious position. But as I'm saying for months now, this ain't a correction, but a big bad bear, so 3 digits to sub 2K is still possible and 3 digits would be ideal to accumulate and hodl. No financial advice, just my thoughts and what I'd do.

Trade active

Retrace hit, small sized spot buy to 8.4 scalp

Trade closed manually

Closed with small loss. Pump and dump again. Whale opens big longs, gradually sell until almost break even and dump the rest for profit.

imgur.com/a/XmatC

I've checked order books closely last few hours + did a deep inspection using level 2 market profile. 100% manipulation again by positions whales, real buyers I think are all out with only a handful of scalpers and traders.
Real static orders are at 6.5k, but don't be fooled that the whale manipulators want to break even with their losses at 8.4k building that artificial bottom. You can bet your bottom they gonna keep reshorting with unrealized PnL.

Did some surveying and most people are already out or are still going to sell their bags.

Bear market guys. Better short the bounces and shitcoins and come back next week to cash out and keep a bit to keep shorting for your daily profits. Glad I had some shorts open to hedge my losses.

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^ Even the bots ain't pumping anymore with their 0.01 buy orders. The alt market is pretty much dead and btc is slowly drying up as well. Better to short scalp the swing corrections (abc) and swing trade at the moment to not get drowned with with rollover fees on positions.

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Whales keep messing up the counts. As noted last night 7.5k is next minor support and they again set bottom $150 above it. Let them eat their losses. I rather short 9.1 and 9.4 than to buy and got dumped upon. The targets are still valid in last chart, but breaching 9.4k is a bull pipedream, there ain't real buyers and some major bad news is due for next week.

Take as much profit away from manipulators, their luck cannot be correlated to intelligence, although they may perceived as such by their cunning and clever tricks.

I see some major orders being pulled from 6.5k to 5.4k, both are exactly my medium swing trade targets...

Short scalping is fine, which is what I'm doing and the best way are the corrective moves which we're in if they don't mess up counts again with their 3-3-5 moves.
If you're still long or bagholding, 9.1k valid target and probably too high based on last 3 moves this week.

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Have talked to some friends and some really good decades old traders whose calls are close to the dollar time after time and we all got screwed in those dumps. It's clearly manipulated, we all know that by now. TA keeps screwing up for everybody for those inorganic 3-3-5, 3-3-3-5, 5-5 moves.

People got that twisted when they say it's hard to trade correction, when imho they are the most EASIEST way to trade. I've barely lost a trade on correction while most money is to be earned by scalping either A or C and very consistent retracements in crypto.
What is hard is to find top in bullrun and bottom in bear run. I've yet to find anyone who sold the top in the bubble formation and rebuying the retacement

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For scalpers among us, please post ideas or chart for 5-15-30m chart for counts.
I've got 4th supermicro AND micro leg in the making to leg 5 8.4k before going to close lower to 7.1-7.2k with current choppy whale trading. Slow bleeding reinforced by constant mini pump and dumps?

Not recommended to scalp for anyone. This is whale territory eating small fish in illiquid markets. Let them destroy each other and buy where the masses are buying. 6.5 decent and 5.4 strong support (it has shifted).

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Targets from 2 days chart also hit that bottom 7.6k textbook. 7.6 was also 168.2% extension 1st wave. This should be top max overshoot 8.5k for little short.

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Nice bear flag, target 6.8k. Last time falling from wedge pattern hit target 7.6 a 100%. Classical textbook soon once again. All bear confluences to that entire area, just like last time. Last suckers rally in effect! :-)

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The herd has not capitulated yet, they're still in fantasy land. Just wait when we soon hit panic area when it will dump right through new low levels. Remember, 1 year ago Bitcoin wasn't even 1k. Bagholders going to think twice next time, especially since many alts are going to find their intrinsic value of close to $0, but I've not so much good hope since most suffer from amnesia [sic - Tulip Mania?] And you thought Bitconnect 99% portfolio loss was bad? The story of the century is in the making for brighter generations to learn from.

Yes, you have a chance to get cheap bitcoin, but in bear season that means 3 digits and even 4.6k is therefore insanely overpriced.

Anyway, roadmap for coming months (messed up since I've worked on smaller TF for calculations) @

Let the whales destroy themselves, they aren't the brightest anyway. They give their profit away to the more intelligent big boys soon enough with way more capital and the enforcement of the law when they take over this business.
The balance to lucky is unlucky is back to square one, but with the benefit of experience, for what it's worth.

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Short: Double top M-formation again, short to targets in previous third chart.

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Target hit, perfect short here.

Another pump and short stop hunt + liquidation.
Authorities gonna love this. It's safe to assume that exchanges who refuse to be audited and therefore have open book will be shutdown internationally. We will know who does the frequent daily pump and dumps. You thought MtGox was big at ? Think again.

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Seems market maker manipulator creating a bulltrap. Goes exactly as chart from 2 days ago... watch closely 8.35 on pullback or dump to 7.3.k Overall trend is down and will continue to do so.

Don't be fooled that invalidation at 8.8 means bullish. With this huge manipulation, you can easily lose money on insta dump.

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MM manipulator blocked the dump last night for hours. Short @ 8.7k to same TP as before.

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^ Can take a few days, markets are pretty much dead. Get used to it in spring cycle, then I wouldn't recommend to use positions when there is low volatility, too much rollover fees.

Trade closed: target reached

Shorts closed as a precaution at first TP hit. Will keep close eye on if we continue the overall downtrend by being rejected on the 8.1 or we break 9.4. I rather reshort higher than buy.

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Good scalp here since Mr Spoofy is placing a few thousands btc wall here at 7.52k, just like last days ago at 8k when he catched that 4k dump + another 4k pump... so putting small buy spot ordera at 7.525k with SL 7.45k.

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^ Spot buy (10-30% reward vs 1% risk, no brainer). Need to check calculations tomorrow, first need some sleep.

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TP #2 hit, bought more spot for the bounce. 8k should be easy. Key targets 8.1 and bullish reversal break of 9.4.

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Lots of bottom shorters, big dumps and price barely moved. When will they learn NOT to short the bottom and NOT to buy the top... few days ago they were liquidated at 8k, soon most likely will happen again. When will they learn to buy low, sell high, smh.

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^ It seems a lot of bottom shorters have closed in the last 4 hours, maybe they understand or are afraid of bullish g20 news.

To invalidate bearish counts, need to break 9.4, then 10.4.

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50-50 now, getting bearish on the indicators + sentiment. Weak bounce. Of course, leg 3 can be in the making for a good pump, but MM is not here it seems...

Trade closed manually

Hit pink line, orders filled. Don't wanna risk this non decisive move, I don't wanna gamble a 50-50 move.

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Thanks for filling my spot sells by covering your shorts. Bulls are nowhere to be seen.

Hammer time soon.

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Don't fall in the fomo and all the bs. They're playing you with bullish news, as it can dump tomorrow bearish news. Stick to the charts. Panic buy and sell is not the way of the trader.

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Wow, I got instantly banned without warning for warning people not to fomo in and that's stupid to do so by a mod who has a crypto profile picture, reason is the word "stupid". Meanwhile, other people keep using the same word, swearing, making ad hominem attacks, creating fud and fomo stories without any consequences and continue to do so UNHINDERED.
It shows you: 1) The double standards, 2) lack of ethics and principles, 3) probably protecting self interest in an open position. Maybe a good idea to have a KYC and a prohibition to push self interest policy as well.

As an entrepreneur, I know that it's much harder to find good people that grow your company vs many that can destroy all your life work. That's what happens when you appoint public members (non-employees) who face no financial consequences vs employees, in case you appeal to a higher authority. If this has happened on my commercial account at the office, I'd have done so with compensation and the demotion of this person in question.

Well, I didn't break ANY house rules as "stupid" was NOT pointed directly to any person as either an ad hominem attack, nor insulting and my warning is VALID.
Therefore, the reason for ban is unwarranted and shows the abuse of power. If I got banned for making critical thoughts, why not ban > 90% in here who made much worse statements. Either get employees that are accountable for their actions under law like other companies do, shutdown the "social" activities all together or REVOKE the rights mods have to even restrict Private Messaging. Not participating in chat or ideas is one thing, but blocking PM is excessive and unwarranted for. 1984, I don't think so.
I'm still thinking about to send a complaint to Tradingview CS manager for what has unfolded and a chance in their policies with an investigation in this matter.
Nevertheless, I love Tradingview's product and service and we've been using them for many years in the firm. Just because a non-employee mod who used his powers unrightfully, doesn't mean we terminate the contracts for our corporate accounts, so let's get that straight.

Needless to say, I don't feel to waste my time and energy in contributing any further in my ideas on a regular basis, maybe some updates for the global picture of where crypto/bitcoin is heading in a roadmap pricewise for swing trades, but no more scalp setups and fundamental analysis, psychology and innerworkings.

To continue on:
For anybody whose a trader, you simply do not fomo or folo and always stick to the plan. No, regulations is NOT good news for crypto, imho. It's GOOD news for fraudsters who keep running the show and destroying the lambo dreams of "normal" people. You WANT regulations for those people and for yourself, whale or not, to limit third party counter risk and get the big money in to increase the float in crypto.

The trend is still down since January and unless that is broken (first 9.4, then 10.4, then 13k), the next stops are 4.8k and 3.3k.
I can either see the bullrun continue at 3.3k around summertime OR we enter the bear market which means 3 digits - 2k tops for BTC until H2 '19. That's what I'm seeing and is backtested by manual calculations as well as with highest probability using algo.

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Chart before pump is still in effect that I posted before @

I just see it as a ABC correction as seen above earlier charts within Leg 2 before continuing to 5.5k (Leg 3). It's proven otherwise if it breaks 8.8 and going for 9.4.

Only difference is, is that we didn't dump to 7k before but went straight pumping. In downtrend, it's safer to short the top than to buy the dip and sell the rip RR wise, so will increase my shorts at 8.7 and 8.8. Then determine if bearish or bullish on pullback to either close/flip.

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Alt market super thin orderbooks, great for whale manipulation. The float is almost non existent and volume is almost dead. Be very careful to step in, you can easily lose 20% but also gain 10%. They pumped it with btc when they pumped btc with cash.

Every time this happens, it's a good time to short btc, to punish altcoin bagholders, so they will panic and dump btc back to cash.

My short was filled at the exact top as I've said 8.7 before it happened and closed it for a good easy scalp, but gonna open soon again.

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Short, scale in 8.9 to 9.3. Ascending wedge again and whales are running out of money having it put in alts, so a good dump will rekt whales, so have some taker short as well. Fireworks tomorrow g20 on msm and we all know how msm is linked together with the establishment and their views on manipulators in crypto.

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I've got a bullish scenario as well in green (ABC). 9.35k would be the max for that.
It's possible that they're going to pump it there within the next 10 hours and then dump it for maximum pain.

7.65k should be closely watch for a strong pullback, if not, it's all the way down to 6.65k for a start.

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Longs at an all time high @ imgur.com/a/cIuca
Yet... the price barely goes up. The last time we've seen the same situation was just before 06-02-'18 (6k bottom), when all those accounts where liquidated and whales cried on reddit. Knowing that the market maker goes against the most stacked positions, we can see a new bottom below 6k guys, exciting times!

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I've backtested both bear and bull scenario and it's pretty much complete now for the time being. Green is bullish scenario, red is bearish continuation scenario. Unless there is a lot of buying volume, it's going down as planned and this is nothing more than an extended abc correction from 7.25k. We will see on the 7.9k if there is enough buying power for a bullish reversal.

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Targets are the same, update for clarification.

Market price seems forced in the rising wedge from days ago and movement seem very very unnatural, with longs at an all time high, I'd not buy in but sell and short at targets in charts, which are the same as days ago (abc correction), which also falls in line of going with the major trend, which is down.

If a bullish reversal is in the making with lots of volume again, close shorts for profit to get a better entry at the major downwards resistance line, which coincides with the end of the bullrun. 9.3k should be big resistance and 9.5-9.7k strong algo selling, so SL 9.725k. Correction ends at 9.35-9.4k and bullish reversal when 9.4 is broken.

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Classic short hit at the top @ $9039.3 with 70 cents precise just like the bottom at 7.2k with $3. How much juice do the bulls still have to push it further to 9.1-9.3k.

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It doesn't look like to dump at all... very weak 38.2% retracement and looking pretty bullish. Will update new chart soon for the bullish reversal. If this huge pump was just the first wave... it will go much higher. In that case, we will not test the new local bottom, but either break to continue the bubble (very much unlikely) or go down hard to newer lows (below 6k), very likely.

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The chart is based on trend fib, which probably almost nobody uses, at least I've never seen anyone use it on tradingview in their charts. I use it when we get crazy moves like this pump which destroyed ta for everybody, since nobody knew the counts, because wave 3 was immediately invalid according to the theory, even with max extension, since it reached well over 261.8, so you're left with chart patterns, but they do not show correction levels, which is what you want to either close/open position or buy spot.
It's accurate and I use this as a last resort in inorganic manipulative moves, but also in forex. The accuracy was $0.30.

Green is bullish reversal, breaking the downtrend for now since double top 11.7 (not overall bearish downtrend). The trajectory should be pretty accurate, but it serves as roadmap, not to be taken 100% and not as financial advice.
Dark red is continuation to downtrend after bullish reversal.
Red is normal trajectory, ABC correction, before continuation downtrend.

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Deepfake controlled moves

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Will update chart when this correction found its bottom. Now that everyone is super bullish again, it confirms that they need to be brought back to reality after this correction hit resistance and there is a good opportunity to short soon, can take a while probably until tomorrow and Friday night they will most likely pump it up to target.

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Most likely to play out as below.

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What if... history repeats itself, since most traders have left and it's almost all algo's trading now... again...

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Log scale

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Black bar is barrier, still need to finish correction, so someone is messing up with markets again, should be corrected by MM.

Would cover shorts at 8.7 and set SL at 8.6 when it goes lower.

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Woops, logscale was still on. This is the chart (look at fractals, so fitting :-))

Trade closed: target reached

Fake news telling you bitcoin dropped $500, but made epic mistake in their narrative. They need more fud to drive it down for those big -10% candles, but we already know it from looking at charts, the correction depends on how good this fud actually works. Anyway, I'm not going long until we have made newer lows below 6k, but keep reshorting and buying spot for scalps.

Have covered 75% at target and 25% for green box, but it's possible this was local bottom for the small run ahead. People keep waiting for correction to pullback at least to their targets, that's why it probably won't happen and knowing btc, this most of the time does not do and if it does, it's with fud and big dumps or pumps and then those guys say "see, we told you so", but if they're wrong, you will never hear from them.

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Well, I said I wouldn't do 15m scalp charts anymore, but I'll give you this one.
TP2 in sight, I've also added in TP3 and expect good bounce from there back up to C.

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^ TP2 hit with $0.40 off, reshorting on the bounce with small position to last TP3.

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^ Correction with more precise targets and roadmap for scalp. TP3 = 8.3.
I'm maybe buying a bit on spot around 8.1 and readd to my short on this bounce.

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Extremely weak bullrun that it truncated leg 5, no buyers at all but some small whaleplay who are impatient... Let's see how far it will correct, but recommended to close shorts at TP3 or set a SL and let money makes you more money.

Now that I think off it further with all that fomo and fud out of the way and looking deeper in to level 2 market profile, there barely is any buying in fiat pairs and way more selling and there is a large group of same order sizes, most likely traders or bots, so joe smoe isn't here and this has not changed for weeks.

Hence, the bear market should continue after maybe a fake bullrun to 9.8k, only sharks here trying to get last money out newbies, especially in alt market, but this market gonna bleed very hard in bear that most will never come back.

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Some little whales have screwed up the chart, I expected mm or spoofy to step in, but it seems the market is completely dead, not even bots are running anymore. Broke the flag with almost no volume and comes back up in the flag with just a few tiny btc orders, this chart painting is messed up and becoming a no trade zone, good job.

I wouldn't even buy spot, there are some conflicting areas of potential bottom right now, ranging from the original 8.15 to now 8k and 7.75k as well. Rather wait for the newer lows or a reversal with breaking volume.

Will update on larger moves, most of my pro trader friends already back to forex and I think I will as well. Will do some swing trades on crypto though, but still mainly in cash. With this bs, low volume and low float, it's not safe to scalp this, especially alt pump and dumps.

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TP3 hit. Not looking to buy in yet, want to see bottom forming around 8-8.15k, likely tomorrow.

Trade closed: target reached

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Buttcoin in action

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Deepfake liqidation whale play going on? Let's see...

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Roadmap

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Medium term swing trade setup

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^ Logscale messed up chart (but shows bearish trendline), below is without logscale for short entry with SL + fractal (surprisingly holds up pretty well).

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Pivots + Indicators in action, always nice to have as an addition, for what they're worth in your toolbox ;-)

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The big hammer awaiting... *BOING*

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I don't know why all those people are not showing the obvious that inverse head & shoulders is in the making.

I mean, trader doesn't care bull or bear market, only hodlers do.
Let's be objective. Even if we are neutral, it shows bearish setup. Looking at bigger picture, we're still in downtrend and this pattern is just a confirmation. Can also measure flag poles to 8k.

Only bull reversal can happen with massive volume, but it ain't gonna happen.

I'm in no trade at the moment, for me doesn't matter which way it goes. I rather have it to go up, so I can short for better RR and take profit away from chart painters.

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Swing trade

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Why are people so extremely emotional and easily influenced on here, I thought this was a place for traders. Anyway, another day, another pump and dump. Was awol most of the day, but have seen the same patterns I've posted in my crypto fraud post. Now that people are bearish again, I'm actually pretty optimistic for the short term. Lots of sell volume compared to pre pump at 7.2k, unless something bigger is going on where people are actually cashing out at a lower value for who knows for what reason, sentiment doesn't support it, so I expect a good bounce to new higher local highs.

TP1 9.4
TP2 9.7
TP3 free to choose (10.2 maybe)

I'm going to buy some at spot soon and expect bottom to be set around 8.35'ish and I've been in cash for a long time.

If people are actually looking at the bigger picture and compare previous historical bubbles, not only for bitcoin, but gold, stocks, housing, etc. then you see something remarkable, namely one more good bullrun to around the average of the previous 3 tops before entering the long bear market. Have we seen capitulation yet? Nope. We've seen a lot of panic selling to 6k, but this ain't a crash yet. Price of 6k was also there in November '17, so if we look at return to the mean for 2017 alone, we're not there yet at all, as easily seen by following that trendline.

Long term bearish, but that doesn't mean bitcoin can shine in April.

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Bought some spot

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Will update the chart tomorrow if we get some volume confirmation and a bit more data. I still think the bottom is near 8.35, but I'm not in a position, so I have no third party risk and buy more in small increments (scaling).

Short term bullish;
Medium term bearish;
Long term bullish (correction to previous post where I've said long term bearish, of course not, bitcoin will most likely see new all time highs in the future).

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As expected, it hit near bottom at 8.35 as said last night. I'm short term bullish, giving the trend for either bull or bear, it needs to go up first to make a decision at its apex. It most likely will move sideways for 1.5 week, which is okay, since I've bought a little bit at spot and have no rollover fees. Will buy more when we break out to fuel the move.

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This will be my last chart for a while. Roadmap below is pretty much complete.
It's possible that wxy is 5 wave pattern, which I had before, but for now, this should do.

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It's been a while, so time for an update. I didn't expect a sharp continuation to the downside, although I feel comfortable to say that the support between 6-6.5k has been held and that we see a good bullrun to the upside from a global perspective (daily/weekly chart). I think there will be one more down leg and there is a possibility that we break the trendline down (but not below 6k) to shake out weak hands and punish bottom shorters who trade breakouts with a strong reaction to the upside. That's what deep pockets like to do with amateur traders for easy profits and that will never change. And don't worry about spoofy with his 9k bitcoin, because there are much bigger players already in the market taking his position over, so all that means is for him to make one mistake, which he did yesterday night when 1k btc was bought from his 9k wall at kill-fill order, then he removed his sell wall, for the little spoofer criminal he is.

Nevertheless, I've bought more at spot near the bottom and don't intend to sell this for a quick buck. I've said weeks ago that it's not smart to use positions in slow markets when your rollover fees exceed your profits, especially in pnd high volatile situations, hence spot and longer term trades, unless more traders come back, because it's not smart to play in sharkpool => gambling. I prefer probabilities and control over luck.

The masses (> 95%) are bearish, so that means the bottom is probably close if not it and smart money buying on the cheap and yes, most of us who do this for a living know that the majority here on tv are complete amateurs and some of them capitalize on that. The same people who never experienced any bubble or bearmarket who're employees vs daytraders and/or entrepreneurs and investors, calling those who experienced it multiple times in their lifetimes idiots can buy at the top back, while they short the bottom, I've little sympathy for those people who told me I don't know anything about bitcoin (when I knew about it since 2011 and know the technicals) and when I've warned them to sell in the bubble and look at them now, they're gone or ignore their wrong calls and threads and continue to react on emotions vs intellect and creating childish threads when there is one big move, hence, those people ARE sheep and will never learn, thus history repeating itself and we can apply knowledge of market cycles in our observations to increase our own wealth and there is a reason why some people will always stay poor and others rich. I think it's not only about psychology, but also about maturity, mindset and intelligence.

This is my perspective. 12.4-12.9k first before bear market (if at all, which I think we will have and my original thought was until H2 '19, but it can actually be longer and I'll explain that later on) and this has not changed for weeks. If you think you can make a living in a bear market and quit your job, be my guest, you'll get one hell of a life lesson.

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So what can you learn from all of this and even better, your own experiences? That is to make your OWN decisions and not rely on others and critically think for yourself in the process, which also means questioning everybody and everything, including me and the market. I'm a contrarian which brought me massive success in my entire life and that's because I don't do what the masses are doing and can see and feel dangerous before they manifest in front of my eyes. Most people in here or everywhere else are the opposite and hence always too late for anything and therefore lack ambition and success. You can compare this with a leading indicator vs a lagging indicator.

Personally, I think there is a huge opportunity now that many do not see, just like the almost 100% return at 6k bottom. So the biggest life lesson in trading is to KNOW yourself (emotions, mindset, psychology), so that you can avoid traps like: thinking like a sheep, reacting to other people's emotions, control your own emotions (greed and fear), so that you can trade methodically and stick to the plan to make consistent profits.

Keep in mind that thinking long term is way more important than short term. That's the problem with society these days, we've got a whole lot of short term thinkers, instant gratification seekers and most have the attention span of a goldfish. It's also the difference between a rich vs a poor mind.

The most important trading book I've read was about psychology and I can highly recommend to read: Trading in the Zone.

Good luck, take care and increase your wealth and happiness dear friends!

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Continuation @

Cheers!

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Can scalp this with tight SL.
Entry spot buy 8.9
SL 8.8
Targets, see my newer post: king needs reinforcements at 3.3k

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Still in the battlezone of 8.8-9.3, median 9.05.
If 8.85k doesn't hold then 8.65k probably mini bounce or consolidation, then 8.5k test.

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No bounce yet, waiting for rsi reset more down.
Expected next stop (IF break 8.9 + 9 walls), 8.7k-8.75k, possible bounce to retest 9.4, good short reload.

CryptoSwindle

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