We seem to be in a distribution trading range, moving in a down channel. Watch out for those sudden 100% up/down moves that randomly chop the market into pieces and squeeze out both bears and bulls.
Inside a trading range TA won't help you - you will be stopped out. The purpose of a trading range is to take money from you. In Distribution range they try to sell you stuff, not buy from you. Read wykoff stuffs for more.
Watch this: youtube.com/watch?v=GFrO_wUmPuk
Seems that we have another dead cat's bounce and here's what can happen:
1) We can move up in wave (v), retest 8450, form double top and bounce back down.
Without a proper correction we won't breach this level. Unless we form an ascending triangle with a massive volume pump on strong candle that is.
2) We can continue moving in a down channel in wave (iv), have proper correction to 7600, then move up in wave (v) with target around 8700 (100% of wave 1) to touch the down channel (on log) and complete wave X).
However this will happen only for the 3rd time and history shows that we will likely bounce down and continue the down trend.
Watch this:
3) We can suddenly drop $1000 down from the current range and enter another trading range (not likely)
Please don't trade based on my analysis only. This is not a financial advice. I'm not responsible for possible losses.
Good Luck!
Inside a trading range TA won't help you - you will be stopped out. The purpose of a trading range is to take money from you. In Distribution range they try to sell you stuff, not buy from you. Read wykoff stuffs for more.
Watch this: youtube.com/watch?v=GFrO_wUmPuk
Seems that we have another dead cat's bounce and here's what can happen:
1) We can move up in wave (v), retest 8450, form double top and bounce back down.
Without a proper correction we won't breach this level. Unless we form an ascending triangle with a massive volume pump on strong candle that is.
2) We can continue moving in a down channel in wave (iv), have proper correction to 7600, then move up in wave (v) with target around 8700 (100% of wave 1) to touch the down channel (on log) and complete wave X).
However this will happen only for the 3rd time and history shows that we will likely bounce down and continue the down trend.
Watch this:
3) We can suddenly drop $1000 down from the current range and enter another trading range (not likely)
Please don't trade based on my analysis only. This is not a financial advice. I'm not responsible for possible losses.
Good Luck!
Note
Looks like we have an ending wedge in truncated wave (v) similar to the Wedge of Doom 1st (X) right after the Star Destroyer much earlier. This does not look like an abc or (x) upwards correction.This means 4 things:
- we won't reach 8450
- we can drop any time now and correct in abc fashion
- there will be no wave 5. This is C and 2nd (X) and the end of fake bull run
- we will continue in a blue down channel
OR the wedge can still slightly transform into a proper up trend/correction by dropping just a bit. Still, a down move seems imminent.
Note
We've reached 8950, cleared both targets, and smashed the down channel on log. Not exactly as expected but close.We might be in a strong short term up trend after all. But of course things can change. It will depend on the abc correction that should follow (divergence on H4) and on whether we will have a golden cross on D1. We have just finished wave (v) in a C or wave 3. Wait for the end of correction then consider buying for a short term profit if you're a bull, or closing a short position if you're a bear. Or you can cautiously try to short the correction for a quick buck.
Here's why:
- The ending wedge in truncated wave (v) has transformed into a strong wave 5 of an up trend
- we had a sort-of triangle in the end and a decent natural buy on breakout because of a golden cross on H4
- now we have a huge pump from a pixie fairy
Up trend pros:
- EMAs fanning
- golden cross on H4
- support on EMA 50 on D1
- C > 1.618 of A
- RSI > 80
- 1.5x of avg daily volume
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.