BTC Realtime Analyse #9

Updated

Hello my friends,
I'm here with BTC Realtime #9.We finished second month of BTC Realtime weakly last day and let's start third month with energy and fresh.Again i want to thanks all of you that helped me to made this idea and this page great,thanks you that trust me and walk on this path with me and thanks about all your kind comments and messages.So let's start this.
As you now we had a 1 profitable month together and now BTC stuck in a determinative situation,so i just tell you what we have in chart,instead what we have to do,in this period of time.
As you see in my main chart(what a messy chart) ,3 BTC's chart with different patterns but almost similar outlook.All these patterns are bullish patterns but this isn mean that we have not any bearish signal in chart,yeah we have and i tell you here later.
In my first chart from left you see a BTC Daily chart that contains a big inverted head and shoulder in middle of right shoulder formation,i started an idea last week that i explained there we didn't form our iH&S #2(from BTC Realtime #6),yet and we are in right shoulder forming phase of it.As you saw many thing walked on plan and my scenario till now and they made me more certain about it.I add that idea here if you want to see it.

BTC, Ready yourself for a MIND BLOWING idea

After that we talked from 2days ago in BTC Realtime #8 about BTC triangle situation.As you see in second chart or chart bellow in triangle we have impact with price and ichumoku in 4h time frame after almost 15 days.Ichimoku cloud plays support role for BTC,still and BTC couldn't enter it yet.

But in lower time frames like 1H we entered it again but not reach below it hopefuly.In 4H we have price above all important EMAs like 50 200 1200 and 20 till now.EMA 20 plays support role till now that BTC reached below it and gonna test it as a resistance.
In 3 chart we can see a little inverted head and shoulder in that triangles that have little complex situation now.It had a chance to break neckline and confirm but failed in that attempt,now i have another hope for this little ih&s to play with two right shoulder,kind a odd head and shoulders but if you check books you can see kind of iH&S named Complex iH&S.They are very rare but exist.Or maybe we are just started right shoulder.
My scenario will play hopefully by mixing triangles with little iH&S and after that with a rally to 8600 they will complete right shoulder of bigger IH&S and BOOM,9500.But...
We have a BUT,like always.As we see in indicators like RSI and MACD we can see signs of reversal and div in them.
It's been one week that i started to talk about bearish div in RSI 4H.See chart bellow.

After that we have a reversal in RSI and MACD ,Daily time frame too.This isn't a signal that can walk away from it,easily.Need a strong support with Strength to can stay safe till indicators recover.
I don't want to be negative but it's situation that we must use a smart tight stop loss,stay tune and continue monitoring Chart.In this situation i do not advise anyone to enter or exit market,just saying to peoples that entered trade in lower steps,BE CAREFUL,we had this kind of situations in BTC before that after a break out of downward channel everyone turn happy and excited and suddenly market back in a sec.
If you want too see what will be our path after market drop,you can see chart bellow.

It will be it,without doubt,next stop will be 5100.But let's see what will happen in future and don not judge it right now,Mixed Signals means more Cautious.I believe in this sentence " Trader is not Cautious,is not Trader.He is just a bad Gambler."
So Good Luck
Like always please like this idea if you like my work and BTC Realtime weakly idea and leave me a comment to know what you think about next days.
I will update this idea like always with any sign.

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And about Telegram Channel,i will start work there from August first and maybe decide to make that private.So those who like to join there before close subscribe at t.me/peymana71
Good Luck
Peyman A

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So BTC start to drop,now,do think this support area can hold it?or EMA50?Need to stop before making lower low.If we stop by this support area,indicators can recover easy.Need to see what will happen.

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Reach to final station of our support area,if this break to we will go for 7800 and 7500 next.

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Yeah.As you see they saved BTC's a** temporary.Now we have a retest of our bottom and this can be really goo,if hold.

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As you see in 5min time frame, BTC broke EMA20 but still struggling with EMA50.In other hand and longer time frame like 4H we see EMA50 in Support role again and EMA20 as a resistance.

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This mean Strength in bulls,maybe we kill this rejection soon(i have doubt in that we drop again,soon)but BTC shows this time back to WIN.We are in my triangles again.One thing that i always said about this kind of triangles is that they always have a fake break out.This is kind a nature of them.Hope BTC continue this way up and break 8300 resistance soon.

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Back all the way,EMA20 broke,let's break E<A 200 and 1200 too.

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There is very heavy sell pressure here,bellow EMA20 in 4H.But if BTC can break this resistance too we can find out that whole that drop was a Stop Killing shake and manipulation.Make a f*** long candle to the last station of Support area,exactly where ema1200 and ichi support are.Exactly where many beginners placed Stop-Loss.after that clean the candle with an eraser,exactly into the trend that it belong in last minutes of candle time.After that with another candle continue that way to show last candle actions was in a normal way.
Yeah,all of these are Market Normal Movements.lol

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And We break EMA20,too.What we need more?

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Now need to see price have more interest in which triangle.

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For those who said that little iH&S in main chart is dead.I saw just passion for reversal in BTC.

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Seems BTC want another support test and this time i don't have much hope in that.But if we can hold this area,at least have a pattern here.

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For those asking me about this,little iH&Ss dead but big one is still in play.

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Continue Dropping,Final hope is 7600 Support,after that nothing can catch the knife.

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Look like that knife is don't want to stop,so let's check the chart and find where we are now.As you look at zoom out daily chart can see we are in a very important support area and if it can't catch the knife,nothing can.

As you see this area was a huge and important support for us last weeks,but know it's just a doubtful support.

Now let's look at fib retrace from 2 point,first one from start of the new upward and second one after first retrace and iH&S formation.As you see in first one we are close to 38% and in second one (that i think is a correct one) we are exactly at 38%.(i do not cont highest candle's noise).So fib gave a lot credit to this support area and because of that i think if we pass this one too,it's hard to stop BTC to not make a new low.soon.As i write this update i see that trend have much passion to break this area.
After this support wen have not any important support till our old wedge(first one that we break it last weeks) support.i add a X mark in chart bellow,this is next support in my opinion.around 6700.

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In RSI 4H we broke my support line,easy and we are in oversold area again.As you see my bearish div are worked,finally,this area have more room to drop now but it will be a great buy signal if we make a reversal,here.

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Look like this area reduced down BTS's speed,temporary,need to see how much it can continue doing this?

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This is what i looked for.

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Need to see can this reversal break that line again.or not.

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And this red dashed line in chart.

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Nice effort here.

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One of my friends here,mentioned this in comment section,but i didn't share it because of lot iH&S Failure,these days.But this one seems worked perfect but until we are below that resistance(dashed line) can't really say we are back again>these are can be simple retrace till we reach meaningful targets in path.

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Even we can use this wedge and climb up again.

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I have good News and bad News,but i think bad ones are more.First good news,we have a continuation triangle here with little bullish signa in RSI short time frames.But i another hand we can see into this triangle and find out something else.Bad News is that as you see in chart we can make a H&S here if we don’t break resistance above.This H&S can help BTC to drop to 6900,easy.We have bearish signals in RSI and MACD in longer time frames,too.
Need to see good signals can continue recovering indicatort in longer time frames or not.

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Heloo guys,i'm back.
AS you see BTC broke the bullish wedge and after a back test continue climb up,but not enough yet.You can see after that we reached above that dashed red line and test it one time as a support but now we have a EMA50 in 1 hr as a resistance.Last night i talked about a potential head and shoulder here,BTC must run from that possibility asap.You can see it in chart bellow.

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Of course there is not much bullish outlook,we have a big H&S, bearish pennant and small H&S in that pennant.We have longer time frames with fully bearish indicators.BTC need to do something if don't want to see 7000,soon.

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Hello guys,as all saw my little H&S worked perfect and now we are still in right shoulder forming phase of bigger one,unfortunately.In 1H we see that EMA50 became a harder resistance for BTC and in 4H we see last breath of EMA200 as a support and after next drop we will see a death cross in EMA,too.Maybe Supports held till now with proper strength but they made for breaking at the end.I repeat my last update,we need to see a meaningful push up or movement in BTC soon.
In other hand we have bullish cross over in MACD 4H that is good sign and in RSI we reach important area again and even moved forward lot,this time.I want to see these signs make a bounce around 7800 and break ema50 in 4H,again.Just this can make me calm,now.

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*chart of last update

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We lost EMA200 too,still in right shoulder area and that big H&S didn't work yet but we lost MACD and RSI again.As you read my last update you can see i mentioned RSI's "Important Area".You can see below and understant what was my point,we lost it again,

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And now working.

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That head and shoulder have a target around X mark in chart,exactly at 78% fib retrace of last upward.

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Last meaningful supports in BTC's path down is blue dashed line and and red line that connects last lows.After that we will not stop till 5100.

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So we have a try here to change our channel from blue to black one or make it wider,but not successful til now.In 4H we have a MACD Bullish cross over that caused to just hold this area and nothing more,as you see in RSI we have another reject by that line and resistance.Now we have possibility to do a simple retrace for latest downwards,even.But not sure about it.Maybe like last times BTC retrace its downward with a sideway(that we did).Anyway our latest sideway closing to its limits and need to decide.

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Bulls and Bears all are exhausted,but at the end bears use this situation and kick them.Bulls need to avoid of this formation,there isn't any reliable strength in any way but as i said bears use that and make them loos.
Did not want to talk about it but i think i seeing series Distribution in market.I wish i understood it wrong and we are in Accumulation phase like a miracle.lol

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*series = serious

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BTC Realtime #10 published,now.Like always thanks all of your supports and togetherness,even with this unsuccessful and crap episode of it.I try to do better and make less mistakes like this.Please join me there with link bellow.
Best Regards
Peyman A

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Update

Peymana71

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