I am tracking this count as more likely at this point looking around macro conditions. This will be completely invalidated if broader markets start making gains or start crashing in the next few weeks. If things keep chopping around, then I am speculating marginal highs leading upto the US elections and things turning for the worse until finally settling down sometime mid next year. BTC and ETC are more likely to make new ATH before taking a downturn. BTC target would be somewhere on the trendline that connect the previous tops. If this plays out and going from high 90 k's or 100k plus to mid 40 to low 40 Ks will be a drastic correction, even it lasts only a few months. This will most likely turn the loudest bulls into bears, and many will lose everything as we have seen in the last sharp corrections. And for this reason, I am being cautious during this sporadic price pumps and keeping plenty of dry powder ready for deployment. I will raise more cash if we can clearly see diagonal structure forming. At this point I think most BTC long timers have a sense of what real bull market price action looks like and this is for sure not it.... not yet!
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