Bitcoin Last Alternative - Neutral Double Head-Fake + Crash
Updated
To illustrate what I touched on in the bullish alternative, this is much more likely to occur than a fuller-lengthed parabola to 75k or higher. Below is just fun speculation from a piggish perspective.
How Will Each Tranch of Trader Perform Under This Scenario?
Downward head-fake has happened so many times now, that any bullish trader worth his salt is going to catch this entry at the sweet spot. The top traders will be cautious and make a disappointing profit of 100% plus (wahh).
Then, the less experienced, but solid swing traders will assume that their perfect entry is a result of their evolution in skill, even though it is mostly a function of it happening several times already. Yet, this will not stop more than half of them from becoming omnipotent and most will fail to factor in the first whipsaw top as a distinct possibility. Over 50 percent of these folks will lose a bit from this trade even after being up double-digits.
Finally, the super-noobs will likely enter into an immediate whipsaw above 66k, where they lose more than 10% of their leveraged position in under a minute.
This last part means that the opposite is true for the few bears remaining at the top of this scenario. Their patience will be rewarded in this case, even if the entry is quite risky. Stubborn bears get roasted here more often than not, but likely not this time around.
And finally, the pig simply waits for the whipsaw/blowoff/parabola/fomo/idiot mania to pick a direction, and then the trade begins. She or he will likely not risk their own capital for this trade because they were trading much easier setups that had much clearer directions from the get-go.
-PatientPig
BITBAY:BTCUSD
BITPANDAPRO:BTCEUR
ETHUSD
ETHEUR
TOTAL
How Will Each Tranch of Trader Perform Under This Scenario?
Downward head-fake has happened so many times now, that any bullish trader worth his salt is going to catch this entry at the sweet spot. The top traders will be cautious and make a disappointing profit of 100% plus (wahh).
Then, the less experienced, but solid swing traders will assume that their perfect entry is a result of their evolution in skill, even though it is mostly a function of it happening several times already. Yet, this will not stop more than half of them from becoming omnipotent and most will fail to factor in the first whipsaw top as a distinct possibility. Over 50 percent of these folks will lose a bit from this trade even after being up double-digits.
Finally, the super-noobs will likely enter into an immediate whipsaw above 66k, where they lose more than 10% of their leveraged position in under a minute.
This last part means that the opposite is true for the few bears remaining at the top of this scenario. Their patience will be rewarded in this case, even if the entry is quite risky. Stubborn bears get roasted here more often than not, but likely not this time around.
And finally, the pig simply waits for the whipsaw/blowoff/parabola/fomo/idiot mania to pick a direction, and then the trade begins. She or he will likely not risk their own capital for this trade because they were trading much easier setups that had much clearer directions from the get-go.
-PatientPig
BITBAY:BTCUSD
BITPANDAPRO:BTCEUR
ETHUSDETHEURTOTALTrade active
This would be the first attempt at a short, if I were to enter a trade as a pig.Trade active
For better, live-time context, see 30-min chart below and compare with the pattern illustrated above:Trade active
Last bit of supporting evidence of a bearish trend change before you go short:Trade active
Ok, phase I of pig-short is complete, and now I am looking to enter the phase II short, contingent on a clear break and hold of 47k. Id say 5 minute confirmation below 47k is a green light in this case, due to the speed of this move.Below is a vague projection on the hourly timeframe of how I see a potential wave iii down (or wave C down) after BTC breaks 47k:
Trade active
Pig-Short Round 2 incoming. Heres a longer-term daily view of where the price may go for the remainder of 2021 and into early 2022 potentially:
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