Bitcoin Halving's Impact Analysis
Updated
Bitcoin Halving Cycles Performance (Pre/Post 1 year performance)
Halving's Pre/Post year Performance:
1. 26th Nov 2012 - Pre 416% / Post 7715%
2. 9th July 2016 - Pre 110% / Post 283% (The full move including after the 24 month period was c.955%)
3. 11th May 2020 - Pre 76% / Post 423%
4. 27th April 2024 - Pre 50% / Post 200%
Pre Summary (from H2) - 110% - 76% - 50% prediction (reducing by c.25% each halving).
Post Summary (from H2) - 955% - 423% - 200% prediction (reduces by c. 50% each halving)
You can see the pattern in the reduced returns in each halving. The pre halving returns typically reduce by 25% a halving and the post halving returns reduce by 100% per halving. We ignore the first having as it was exponential introductory growth of the asset.
Important Dates are 27th April 2024 (halving date). Good place to skim or wait for a pullback). Also the date of 25th April 2025. This is a softer date, a take profit early date potentially, most cycles have ended in Q4 of the given year thus some chips should be left on the table post April 2025 depending on the continued performance up to that point.
Always a pleasure, I hope its been insightful
Puka
Halving's Pre/Post year Performance:
1. 26th Nov 2012 - Pre 416% / Post 7715%
2. 9th July 2016 - Pre 110% / Post 283% (The full move including after the 24 month period was c.955%)
3. 11th May 2020 - Pre 76% / Post 423%
4. 27th April 2024 - Pre 50% / Post 200%
Pre Summary (from H2) - 110% - 76% - 50% prediction (reducing by c.25% each halving).
Post Summary (from H2) - 955% - 423% - 200% prediction (reduces by c. 50% each halving)
You can see the pattern in the reduced returns in each halving. The pre halving returns typically reduce by 25% a halving and the post halving returns reduce by 100% per halving. We ignore the first having as it was exponential introductory growth of the asset.
Important Dates are 27th April 2024 (halving date). Good place to skim or wait for a pullback). Also the date of 25th April 2025. This is a softer date, a take profit early date potentially, most cycles have ended in Q4 of the given year thus some chips should be left on the table post April 2025 depending on the continued performance up to that point.
Always a pleasure, I hope its been insightful
Puka
Note
Pretty Standard albeit optimistic price action for pre halving year. Very likely have 24 green months ahead of us (with the odd potential 20-30% pull back).
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