BitcoinUpdated BTC Update
Still following the downtrend, i had to expand it out to a channel. Today it dropped but rose and is hitting into the channel wall and ready to drop again. Previous drop was 14% I'm guessing this could be similar as this would line up nicely with my fib.
At this point i don't see a change in trend and thing we will continue to see drops and pullbacks until a bottom is hit.
I can't short with my broker so I'm waiting with buys at 20, 15, and 9.5. None may get hit, but if i see a reversal I'll consider buy in then.
At this point i don't see a change in trend and thing we will continue to see drops and pullbacks until a bottom is hit.
I can't short with my broker so I'm waiting with buys at 20, 15, and 9.5. None may get hit, but if i see a reversal I'll consider buy in then.
Note
My trend line doesn't seem to be holding up, but that's normal/expected as price moves around. Today we saw a swing upwards which surprised many bulls and bears. Elon's tween make the price soar temporarily. I figured it would hit 40k by the end of the day and retreat, but Elon and his magic sped this up considerable, and at that point i figured we'll pull back to about 37k by end of day, and we are almost there.Even with a down trend you can't assume we won't see some green days, I just didn't really expect btc to hit almost +15%. This is pretty crazy because it's the second largest percentage gain next to a 19% day during the bull run, but it's been pulling back now which is expected.
I call this a dead cat bounce, which is to say even though it went up temporarily, its still going down. I haven't changed any targets and think we are still headed to the lower 30s next. If we keep the up & down going this could meander for a while.
If you trade alt coins, always keep an eye on what BTC is doing and consider existing your positions when it's looking dumpy, and re-enter after it dumps to maximize your scalping profits.
Elon's tweets are a harbinger of doom, it makes the prices rise dramatically, but it also becomes an exit sign to cash out. I saw quite a few long positions closed once 40k was touched.
I'm still sticking with my plan, and plan to wait this out. I may trade a few alts on the way down, but any entry will be temporary (less than 24 hours).
Good luck!
Note
This definitely went on a longer dead cat bounce than i expected. Formed a head and shoulders and dropped. People keep hoping to see it hit bottom and reverse, but any small bounces are short lived. Don't be fooled BTC isn't showing momentum as there isn't enough buying pressure. I have a fib at 30k and think we may see a bounce around there up to mid 30s and then probably back down breaking into the 20s.
The path to the bottom is never a straight shot so, don't be fooled when you see a small rally. I like watching the 5 minute chart for activity, but use higher time frames when identifying trends and targets. Anyways when viewing 5 min price action make sure you look at both the green candle sizes and the volume size. I've seen so many cases where price is slowly inching up, but the volume is lower than average. This is a good indication the rally will be short lived. I've seen several quick pumps and then comes the dump.
Don't get fooled into these little rallys, they are mostly bear flags/pennants/wedges that will break downward to continue to the trend. Don't expect it to always go down, there will be small rallies where the price will bounce off support and bounce up to resistance. I'd only consider a reversal if it rally's significantly, and i can't imagine that happening from the 30s, 20s minimum, but i think lower will be better for BTC as it will give buyers a lot of room for a rally.
Another thing on my mind is that BTC needs to drop a lot due to alt coins. Everyone loves alts because the move 15-30% quickly, when BTC was barely moving a few percent. This was one of the problems in the late stages of the bull run. So for btc to reverse it needs to drop a lot so that it can make a strong rally, gaining momentum, and regain interest. At 30k, I don't think it will gain the momentum needed to return to the 60s, most will flock to alt coins and btc will lose momentum and fail again. This is all about BTC dominance and is why i'd only consider buying BTC at 20k and below, otherwise i'd buy alts.
Yesterday was red, today will likely be red, don't be surprise to see a rally tomorrow/monday. I think it will be a bounce off 30k.
Good luck!
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