BTC Playbook: Relief Rally targets and possible Bottom
Hey all!
It seems like my idea (posted 3 weeks ago) about a potential relief rally is coming to fruition (with a bit of a delay).
I'll keep this analysis quick and simple by giving you all the possible resistances and where I believe the bear market bottom is. Here we go:
Red lines:
The red lines are all my price targets for this relief rally.
I give emphasis on the 200W MA and the 50D MA area. If the price breaks the first, there's a chance we visit the second but I personally believe the probability of heading even higher (towards the 28800 area) is not as great.
If you're wondering why I picked these prices go back to the bull run and you will see those where areas of consolidation during previous upside. As I said tho, for me the most important levels are those around 200W MA and 50D MA.
Green lines:
Green lines are all tested supports. Ironically, all those levels were hiding in plain sight. All of them are levels from November 2020 (right before we broke 2017 ATH)
Those are levels you might considering buying, of course depending on the Price Action (context while visiting each level may vary, making each one a good buy or bad one. Use your brain)
Yellow lines:
Those are untested supports.
For context I've written the dates they come from so you can check why these prices are important.
There's high probability these yellow lines are the bear market bottom. If not then my eyes would target the 11800-12500 area as an extreme bear market bottom
(absolute lowest price I could ever imagine is 10800 and I think it's highly unlikely we'll see it)
Blue background "Zone" = Ranging zone. Not terrible buys but expect a lot of chopping
Green background "Zone" = Good buying opportunity zone. Very good prices to build some spot. Potentially that's also gonna be the bottom unless we go for the extreme scenario of sub 14k.
!!! INVALIDATION !!!
-- My Idea for a relief rally is invalidated if we get extended price action below 20.4k or daily close below 19.2k or weekly close below 19.6k !!!
Generally, I believe we have lee-way, thus, possible upside until either 13/7 when CPI comes out or 19/7 when earnings start to get published.
I am expecting bad earnings to be announced starting 19/7 and on.
On top of that we have FOMC meeting the 27/7 and GDP for Q2 coming out the 29/7 (which will confirm we're in a recession)
So whatever you do make sure to secure profits till 13/7 max 19/7
In short, upside for up to 2 weeks, then return into the inside week range (19600-21800) and eventually towards the actual bear market bottom.
This whole process might take a month or two, so, stay vigilant and be patient.
Good Luck!
It seems like my idea (posted 3 weeks ago) about a potential relief rally is coming to fruition (with a bit of a delay).
I'll keep this analysis quick and simple by giving you all the possible resistances and where I believe the bear market bottom is. Here we go:
Red lines:
The red lines are all my price targets for this relief rally.
I give emphasis on the 200W MA and the 50D MA area. If the price breaks the first, there's a chance we visit the second but I personally believe the probability of heading even higher (towards the 28800 area) is not as great.
If you're wondering why I picked these prices go back to the bull run and you will see those where areas of consolidation during previous upside. As I said tho, for me the most important levels are those around 200W MA and 50D MA.
Green lines:
Green lines are all tested supports. Ironically, all those levels were hiding in plain sight. All of them are levels from November 2020 (right before we broke 2017 ATH)
Those are levels you might considering buying, of course depending on the Price Action (context while visiting each level may vary, making each one a good buy or bad one. Use your brain)
Yellow lines:
Those are untested supports.
For context I've written the dates they come from so you can check why these prices are important.
There's high probability these yellow lines are the bear market bottom. If not then my eyes would target the 11800-12500 area as an extreme bear market bottom
(absolute lowest price I could ever imagine is 10800 and I think it's highly unlikely we'll see it)
Blue background "Zone" = Ranging zone. Not terrible buys but expect a lot of chopping
Green background "Zone" = Good buying opportunity zone. Very good prices to build some spot. Potentially that's also gonna be the bottom unless we go for the extreme scenario of sub 14k.
!!! INVALIDATION !!!
-- My Idea for a relief rally is invalidated if we get extended price action below 20.4k or daily close below 19.2k or weekly close below 19.6k !!!
Generally, I believe we have lee-way, thus, possible upside until either 13/7 when CPI comes out or 19/7 when earnings start to get published.
I am expecting bad earnings to be announced starting 19/7 and on.
On top of that we have FOMC meeting the 27/7 and GDP for Q2 coming out the 29/7 (which will confirm we're in a recession)
So whatever you do make sure to secure profits till 13/7 max 19/7
In short, upside for up to 2 weeks, then return into the inside week range (19600-21800) and eventually towards the actual bear market bottom.
This whole process might take a month or two, so, stay vigilant and be patient.
Good Luck!
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