BitcoinLong
BTC 2011-2015 pitchfork frames the market for $400k+ top in 2024
This pitchfork combined with algo targets predicts a top of $372,000 - $610,000 by November 2024. But do we over preform to $1,400,000+ by July 2025?
Last cycle I was left feeling like we didn't get the same performance as the 2017 bull market. Yes we seen craziness in NFTs and many newer alts, but Bitcoin and many other large caps seemed a bit lack luster. By the time 2022 lows came in it was obvious that the 2021 highs were a textbook Wyckoff distribution, the hallmark of sophisticated investors. To be honest I felt frustrated by this, maybe even a little robbed as I reminisced the 2017 blow off top.
Looking back, I'm left in awe. This pitchfork using the 2011 low, 2013 top & 2015 low has framed the market for almost 10 years and the algo targets have been almost surgical. Just look at how the price has been reacting at the median line! The 2021 top should have been no surprise with multiple algo targets stacked + the outer edge of the pitchfork.
Notice the 2014 - 2015 bear market and how it stayed below the pitchfork median line for a decent amount of time (oversold) and once it broke through the median line it consolidated above & retested it before going on the massive 2017 tare. Well this setup appears to be repeating.
If you have been paying attention you would also know that the EFTs are currently absorbing 10x the daily mined supply with 5% of liquid supply brought up by the ETFs in the past 30 days... With the halving imminent, the supply shock is about to hit.
Many people are predicting $100,000USD & the first algo target is $126,000 so I believe that's a given. But the pitchfork outer range & main algo targets are much higher at around $376,000 - $400,000. Given the setup I think these targets are highly likely. BUT with so much money coming in and such an illiquid asset, do we see a blow off top more like the 2017 bull market?
If we do, the 1.618 outer pitchfork bounds, 1:1 range expansion & 3rd wave targets are stacked at $600,000 - in line with Ark Invests base case scenario & after that the next target is the 2.0 outer pitchfork range & 3rd wave targets at around $1,500,000 - just above Ark invests bull case scenario ($1,400,000).
Thinking about the crypto market as a whole, I've seen people refer to the 2017 bull market as the crypto dot com bubble. But consider this; the dot com bubble topped out at around 2 trillion market cap & was largely a US phenomenon. Crypto on the other hand is a global movement but in 2017 it topped out at $850 million. Using gold as an marker for real inflation there was a 500% increase in prices during this time, so adjusted for inflation does it make sense that the 2017 was cryptos dot com bubble was only $170,000,000?
Now you might be thinking "wtf are you talking about?? that's so unrealistic! that's not how inflation works and that's not how much prices have gone up!?!". If you are in this boat consider this: if in 1970 you purchased $15,000AUD worth of gold you would have received ~416 ounces at around $36 ea. at the same time you could have brought a house in Melbourne Australia & fully furnished it, paid all taxes and fees for under $15,000. fast forward to today, $15,000 buys you 4oz of gold & it wouldn't even pay the tax on a property sale. But the 416oz gold you brought in 1970 would now be worth $1,400,000 & can still buy a similar house in Melbourne. So I suggest that property value, rent cost & the price of gold give a more accurate indication of inflation than official metrics.
Gold, in my opinion, is still playing catch up to the monetary damage caused during the pandemic, but even still using the current prices the crypto market cap would need to reach around 20T to be in-line with the dot com bubble, but factoring in the global nature and inflation yet to be priced in, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it top out at $30 Trillion & $100 Trillion in a true bubble style blow-off top.
Key Points
The Trade?
Do everything you can to acquire as much spot Bitcoin as you can while we remain in this re-accumulation range, then diamond hand it as long as you can bare. A trade with big flashing neon signs like this doesn't come up every day.
Depending on your time horizon & personal objectives taking money off the table at key targets would be wise while leaving enough in for over performance.
D.Y.O.R. DO NOT BLINDLY TAKE THESE TRADES.
Never Trust. Verify. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS.
This is not financial advice. These are just my observations.
Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
Last cycle I was left feeling like we didn't get the same performance as the 2017 bull market. Yes we seen craziness in NFTs and many newer alts, but Bitcoin and many other large caps seemed a bit lack luster. By the time 2022 lows came in it was obvious that the 2021 highs were a textbook Wyckoff distribution, the hallmark of sophisticated investors. To be honest I felt frustrated by this, maybe even a little robbed as I reminisced the 2017 blow off top.
Looking back, I'm left in awe. This pitchfork using the 2011 low, 2013 top & 2015 low has framed the market for almost 10 years and the algo targets have been almost surgical. Just look at how the price has been reacting at the median line! The 2021 top should have been no surprise with multiple algo targets stacked + the outer edge of the pitchfork.
Notice the 2014 - 2015 bear market and how it stayed below the pitchfork median line for a decent amount of time (oversold) and once it broke through the median line it consolidated above & retested it before going on the massive 2017 tare. Well this setup appears to be repeating.
If you have been paying attention you would also know that the EFTs are currently absorbing 10x the daily mined supply with 5% of liquid supply brought up by the ETFs in the past 30 days... With the halving imminent, the supply shock is about to hit.
Many people are predicting $100,000USD & the first algo target is $126,000 so I believe that's a given. But the pitchfork outer range & main algo targets are much higher at around $376,000 - $400,000. Given the setup I think these targets are highly likely. BUT with so much money coming in and such an illiquid asset, do we see a blow off top more like the 2017 bull market?
If we do, the 1.618 outer pitchfork bounds, 1:1 range expansion & 3rd wave targets are stacked at $600,000 - in line with Ark Invests base case scenario & after that the next target is the 2.0 outer pitchfork range & 3rd wave targets at around $1,500,000 - just above Ark invests bull case scenario ($1,400,000).
Thinking about the crypto market as a whole, I've seen people refer to the 2017 bull market as the crypto dot com bubble. But consider this; the dot com bubble topped out at around 2 trillion market cap & was largely a US phenomenon. Crypto on the other hand is a global movement but in 2017 it topped out at $850 million. Using gold as an marker for real inflation there was a 500% increase in prices during this time, so adjusted for inflation does it make sense that the 2017 was cryptos dot com bubble was only $170,000,000?
Now you might be thinking "wtf are you talking about?? that's so unrealistic! that's not how inflation works and that's not how much prices have gone up!?!". If you are in this boat consider this: if in 1970 you purchased $15,000AUD worth of gold you would have received ~416 ounces at around $36 ea. at the same time you could have brought a house in Melbourne Australia & fully furnished it, paid all taxes and fees for under $15,000. fast forward to today, $15,000 buys you 4oz of gold & it wouldn't even pay the tax on a property sale. But the 416oz gold you brought in 1970 would now be worth $1,400,000 & can still buy a similar house in Melbourne. So I suggest that property value, rent cost & the price of gold give a more accurate indication of inflation than official metrics.
Gold, in my opinion, is still playing catch up to the monetary damage caused during the pandemic, but even still using the current prices the crypto market cap would need to reach around 20T to be in-line with the dot com bubble, but factoring in the global nature and inflation yet to be priced in, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it top out at $30 Trillion & $100 Trillion in a true bubble style blow-off top.
Key Points
- 2011 - 2015 Pitchfork still framing Bitcoins price almost 10 years later
- 1.618 pitchfork marked the 2017 top
- First Algo target from 2015 - 2021 & second Algo target from 2011 - 2013 at $55,000 & $62,000 marked the 2021 double top
- 1.236 pitchfork boundary marked the first top in 2021
- & the 1.0 pitchfork boundary marked the secondary high in 2021
- First Algo target from 2020 - 2021 at about $126,000
- Second Algo target from 2020 - 2021 at about $372,000
- Second Algo target from 2015 - 2017 at about 395,000
- 1.382 Pitchfork boundary in confluence with algo targets for a November top
- 1st target for the 3rd wave comes in at $563,000
- 1:1 range expansion from 2011 - 2013 at $608,000
- 2.0 pitchfork boundary in confluence with algo target in September
- 2nd target for the 3rd wave at $1,500,000 by June 2026
The Trade?
Do everything you can to acquire as much spot Bitcoin as you can while we remain in this re-accumulation range, then diamond hand it as long as you can bare. A trade with big flashing neon signs like this doesn't come up every day.
Depending on your time horizon & personal objectives taking money off the table at key targets would be wise while leaving enough in for over performance.
- Remember to self custody, "not your keys not your crypto".
D.Y.O.R. DO NOT BLINDLY TAKE THESE TRADES.
Never Trust. Verify. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS.
This is not financial advice. These are just my observations.
Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
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