Bitcoin Bear Market Bull flags
Updated
Hi Investors/traders
Today I'm looking at the 2 week chart of BTC on a line chart. We are comparing the bear markets with a bull flag out look. Although they are NOT technical bull flags they bare some similarities with the support and resistance areas along with false breakouts. We will go over false break outs and they usually mean and result in.
There are only two indicators in this chart although one is turned off for the purpose of clarity and keeping the chart clean. The one not visible is the (Bitcoin Fibonacci Log Regression) and the (CM_Ult_MacD_MTF) it is basically the MACD with different colors, a line that marks the zero and dots to mark crosses.
As we can clearly see the 2 week MacD has had an upward cross which has historically marked the bottom was in and momentum is slowly being gained on the upside. This should tell you the fight to battle resistance zones has already begun.
False breakouts whether they are on the upside or downside act the same way. As we can see in 2018 Bitcoin was in a down ward trading channel (Bull Flag) and broke out of it on the downside, it then recovered back into the channel, which is a bullish move as we can see the result was a fairly substantial run afterwards.
Last year Bitcoin did the same thing but opposite. It broke out of the channel but to the upside this time, then falling back into the channel again proving to be a false breakout. This is a very bearish move, But when does is it end? Well, no one knows, probably not the answer you're looking for. Clues for the answer to this question In my experience are in the indicators. One powerful indicator is the MACD, especially on the 2 week. The RSI as well is a very powerful indicator although not in this chart is showing a bullish divergence. Also a third indicator that is very powerful is the Stochastic RSI, which itself is also showing momentum is on the rise as well. Does this mean BTC will flip bullish any moment? No. Does it mean we will not go lower? No. There is no 100% guarantee, only risk management. Historically what we can see here is that it has been a very good time to buy and a reversal would come in the next few weeks or months.
I have two possible targets on this chart, why? First off no knows the actual future of anything. The only thing we can do is use educated guesses. By looking at at history, and using indicators, we can try to plot how the future could happen. After that we just follow a and see where it goes. So, the possible targets.... If you believe in manipulation of outcomes, (covid) being one and the addition of (leverage trading) and (Derivatives). I see people arguing that it affected the price of BTC, the crypto market and caused anomalies. Anomalies always happen, like we said earlier there is no certainty. However, one action begets and equal opposite reaction. so, it there is any truth to these things they will eventually correct one way or another. The only thing we can go by are the facts, the facts are BTC had a bull run, it then pulled back, then it had a false breakout, that then lead to the collapsed, and now is showing that momentum is flipping to upwards again. You could say this is all just junk information, but by comparing it to the stock to flow we can see there is something to it. I have stock to flow comparison charts as well.
Another thing to be aware of is that BTC as of the FTX debacle, is now untethered from the stock market. What does that mean? I don't know. For how long or permanent? I don't know.
Yes, Bitcoins moves throughout it's history have been mirrored to stocks.
I want to add that a break and close below 13.7k is not a good thing and it's not a buy in my opinion. I think a close under 13.7k will eventually lead to a bigger collapse to at least 3k and would take years and years to recover. I do have this scenario in the chart as well, however I don't expect it at this point in time. I'm not saying that the price can't go below and quickly recover, I'm saying if it does go below and does not quickly recover, than there are most likely bigger problems in the market.
Time will answer these questions from above. I think within 6 months a lot of these questions will be answered. So sit tight and let's see.
Thank you for looking
leave questions or comments below
WeAreSat0shi
Today I'm looking at the 2 week chart of BTC on a line chart. We are comparing the bear markets with a bull flag out look. Although they are NOT technical bull flags they bare some similarities with the support and resistance areas along with false breakouts. We will go over false break outs and they usually mean and result in.
There are only two indicators in this chart although one is turned off for the purpose of clarity and keeping the chart clean. The one not visible is the (Bitcoin Fibonacci Log Regression) and the (CM_Ult_MacD_MTF) it is basically the MACD with different colors, a line that marks the zero and dots to mark crosses.
As we can clearly see the 2 week MacD has had an upward cross which has historically marked the bottom was in and momentum is slowly being gained on the upside. This should tell you the fight to battle resistance zones has already begun.
False breakouts whether they are on the upside or downside act the same way. As we can see in 2018 Bitcoin was in a down ward trading channel (Bull Flag) and broke out of it on the downside, it then recovered back into the channel, which is a bullish move as we can see the result was a fairly substantial run afterwards.
Last year Bitcoin did the same thing but opposite. It broke out of the channel but to the upside this time, then falling back into the channel again proving to be a false breakout. This is a very bearish move, But when does is it end? Well, no one knows, probably not the answer you're looking for. Clues for the answer to this question In my experience are in the indicators. One powerful indicator is the MACD, especially on the 2 week. The RSI as well is a very powerful indicator although not in this chart is showing a bullish divergence. Also a third indicator that is very powerful is the Stochastic RSI, which itself is also showing momentum is on the rise as well. Does this mean BTC will flip bullish any moment? No. Does it mean we will not go lower? No. There is no 100% guarantee, only risk management. Historically what we can see here is that it has been a very good time to buy and a reversal would come in the next few weeks or months.
I have two possible targets on this chart, why? First off no knows the actual future of anything. The only thing we can do is use educated guesses. By looking at at history, and using indicators, we can try to plot how the future could happen. After that we just follow a and see where it goes. So, the possible targets.... If you believe in manipulation of outcomes, (covid) being one and the addition of (leverage trading) and (Derivatives). I see people arguing that it affected the price of BTC, the crypto market and caused anomalies. Anomalies always happen, like we said earlier there is no certainty. However, one action begets and equal opposite reaction. so, it there is any truth to these things they will eventually correct one way or another. The only thing we can go by are the facts, the facts are BTC had a bull run, it then pulled back, then it had a false breakout, that then lead to the collapsed, and now is showing that momentum is flipping to upwards again. You could say this is all just junk information, but by comparing it to the stock to flow we can see there is something to it. I have stock to flow comparison charts as well.
Another thing to be aware of is that BTC as of the FTX debacle, is now untethered from the stock market. What does that mean? I don't know. For how long or permanent? I don't know.
Yes, Bitcoins moves throughout it's history have been mirrored to stocks.
I want to add that a break and close below 13.7k is not a good thing and it's not a buy in my opinion. I think a close under 13.7k will eventually lead to a bigger collapse to at least 3k and would take years and years to recover. I do have this scenario in the chart as well, however I don't expect it at this point in time. I'm not saying that the price can't go below and quickly recover, I'm saying if it does go below and does not quickly recover, than there are most likely bigger problems in the market.
Time will answer these questions from above. I think within 6 months a lot of these questions will be answered. So sit tight and let's see.
Thank you for looking
leave questions or comments below
WeAreSat0shi
Note
Similar chart with more history on log regression.tradingview.com/chart/gVptQO9x/
Note
Goodbuy 10k Bitcoin? No it was always just a dream. Goodbye 10k Bitcoin!Note
Look first, then leap!Note
Note
Bottom hunters are actually top buyers!Note
The bull market market continues as stated. Nothing has changed.Note
The charts point to September 15th for the beginning of something big. Possible target of 44k for October as this years high point.Note
We are still on pace for higher yearly highs October/November. Major support held and is very strong. 28.3k is a very important price point, Bitcoin needs to close above this on weekly to stay out of the Gaussian channel. Otherwise it could be hinting to further correction.Note
We are awaiting the big move, it could start as soon as next week. The October move that heads into November is here.Note
The cycle is at the beginning stages of the next move.Note
Note
The local top was hit yesterday. Look for a correction over the next month or two back to 31k. Then take a strong bounce into May with highs over 50k
tiktok.com/@wearesat0sh1
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