02/01/24 Weekly outlook
Updated
Last weeks high: $43821.44
Last weeks low: $42563.55
Midpoint: $41305.65
HAPPY NEW YEAR TRADERS!
A new year has arrived and with it another year of price action or BITCOIN. This year the general sentiment is as strong as it has ever been with ETF's & THE HALVING events in the first half of the year alone.
Last weeks price action showed a consolidation just under the local high allowing some of the lagging altcoins to run and others to cool off for the next move in the market. The rumour is ETF decision will be announced this week, there is talk of whether the event is a sell the news event or if it's bullish. I would say I'm sceptical and I have said previously I think it would be a sell the news, the majority of big money players would have made their money on the way up to the decision, not gamble on the result. BTC price tripled in 2022 and those kinds of returns for big investors are great, why risk the volatility after the decision. However... Having said that I would also be a fool to disregard the sheer power of FOMO, a big headline in the news about BlackRock's ETF approval would send retail investors back into the market to make a "quick buck" which brings a buying pressure, volatility and also a risk of a blow-off top.
A case for the bulls would be BlackRock would not want to let their brand new ETF look bad, it would need to be an attractive investment and so they would probably do their best to steady and volatility to be able to attract customers and extract fees from them.
I do also see BTC being at new highs by the end of the year, so depending on the timeframe of your investment you may be able to ride out the volatility of the ETF's, however you may get a better entry by being agile.
Last weeks low: $42563.55
Midpoint: $41305.65
HAPPY NEW YEAR TRADERS!
A new year has arrived and with it another year of price action or BITCOIN. This year the general sentiment is as strong as it has ever been with ETF's & THE HALVING events in the first half of the year alone.
Last weeks price action showed a consolidation just under the local high allowing some of the lagging altcoins to run and others to cool off for the next move in the market. The rumour is ETF decision will be announced this week, there is talk of whether the event is a sell the news event or if it's bullish. I would say I'm sceptical and I have said previously I think it would be a sell the news, the majority of big money players would have made their money on the way up to the decision, not gamble on the result. BTC price tripled in 2022 and those kinds of returns for big investors are great, why risk the volatility after the decision. However... Having said that I would also be a fool to disregard the sheer power of FOMO, a big headline in the news about BlackRock's ETF approval would send retail investors back into the market to make a "quick buck" which brings a buying pressure, volatility and also a risk of a blow-off top.
A case for the bulls would be BlackRock would not want to let their brand new ETF look bad, it would need to be an attractive investment and so they would probably do their best to steady and volatility to be able to attract customers and extract fees from them.
I do also see BTC being at new highs by the end of the year, so depending on the timeframe of your investment you may be able to ride out the volatility of the ETF's, however you may get a better entry by being agile.
Note
FLASH CRASH! Be safe out there...It looks like we retested last weeks low of 41300, for now price has held and reacted well off the level. Alts are bleeding off more so than BTC as expected however when there is blood it can be a great buying opportunity, you do have to be nimble though as we don't yet know if the sell off is complete.
A de-leveraging is usually a good thing for the greater bullish structure and there hasn't been one for some time, alts need to be kept in check this way. The 4H 200EMA is a good indicator of structure, i'd like to see this level being held or reclaimed with strength to maintain a bullish bias.
With the ETF announcement imminent this could be some last minute mind games by big players, or manufactured better entries.
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