TD Sequential and VSTOP: The next 4 days are crucial
Updated
The Left Chart
I have been using iterations of the chart on the left for a while now. Bitcoin is testing previous support as resistance and so this is a key decision point. Failure to break resistance right here signals very real macro-weakness. It would have been the third lower high since 2017 and at the least would set up more continuation sideways. Even more bearishly would be the low of late 2018 and early 2010 being taken out and we would be legging it down.
The monthly level to beat is determined by the VSTOP, being set to close, at 11,321. Closing above that to end the month flips the VSTOP similar to what happened in 2016. A look at early 2016 shows we can also chop sideways for another for months or so against this VSTOP. The idea of chopping sideways for a couple of months might be enticing for many, as it gives you a place to accumulate for the next leg up. Normally I would agree, but as I said, we are on our third consecutive lower low at double resistance. I will continue to personally wait for the VSTOP to flip bullish because I am looking for a long term trend here and the chance of reversal is still to high for me.
The Right Chart
There is a lot of potential bullishness on this timeframe and I know why many are licking their chops. Price action has just cleared the TDST (Tom Demark Setup Trend) and a close above that is our clear buy signal on the weekly timeframe. I have boxed out the area between the TDST and the 1m VSTOP
The Daily Chart
The box shows how price action is in No Man's Land between the bullishness on the weekly chart and the resistance on the monthly chart. Forbebodingly, there is a "Perfected 9" which is clearly higher than the highs of bars 6 and 7. This means we are at a very technical place for reversal.
Summation:
Monthly: still bearish until a close above the VSTOP and double resistance. Patience if you want to go long or tunneling down timeframes if you want to go short.
Weekly: BUYBUYBUY so long as you ignore the other timeframes
Daily: Trend is at resistance and could break out. Perfected 9 on the TD. Decent place to simulate straddle with opposing positions if you think TD could go to 13 or close above the monthly resistance but want to keep yourself safe.
Not financial advice though. I am still familiarizing myself with the TD and VSTOP combination with experimentation. I remain neutral on BTCUSD for now with no trades on. Come August 1st that may change with a close above 11,321.
I have been using iterations of the chart on the left for a while now. Bitcoin is testing previous support as resistance and so this is a key decision point. Failure to break resistance right here signals very real macro-weakness. It would have been the third lower high since 2017 and at the least would set up more continuation sideways. Even more bearishly would be the low of late 2018 and early 2010 being taken out and we would be legging it down.
The monthly level to beat is determined by the VSTOP, being set to close, at 11,321. Closing above that to end the month flips the VSTOP similar to what happened in 2016. A look at early 2016 shows we can also chop sideways for another for months or so against this VSTOP. The idea of chopping sideways for a couple of months might be enticing for many, as it gives you a place to accumulate for the next leg up. Normally I would agree, but as I said, we are on our third consecutive lower low at double resistance. I will continue to personally wait for the VSTOP to flip bullish because I am looking for a long term trend here and the chance of reversal is still to high for me.
The Right Chart
There is a lot of potential bullishness on this timeframe and I know why many are licking their chops. Price action has just cleared the TDST (Tom Demark Setup Trend) and a close above that is our clear buy signal on the weekly timeframe. I have boxed out the area between the TDST and the 1m VSTOP
The Daily Chart
The box shows how price action is in No Man's Land between the bullishness on the weekly chart and the resistance on the monthly chart. Forbebodingly, there is a "Perfected 9" which is clearly higher than the highs of bars 6 and 7. This means we are at a very technical place for reversal.
Summation:
Monthly: still bearish until a close above the VSTOP and double resistance. Patience if you want to go long or tunneling down timeframes if you want to go short.
Weekly: BUYBUYBUY so long as you ignore the other timeframes
Daily: Trend is at resistance and could break out. Perfected 9 on the TD. Decent place to simulate straddle with opposing positions if you think TD could go to 13 or close above the monthly resistance but want to keep yourself safe.
Not financial advice though. I am still familiarizing myself with the TD and VSTOP combination with experimentation. I remain neutral on BTCUSD for now with no trades on. Come August 1st that may change with a close above 11,321.
Note
Weakness beginning to show.
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