Bitcoin Fractal still valid, another rally in to the 10K's
Updated
I actually don't have much to add to my previous analysis, but i thought it was worth an update. The start for completing the fractal is there now and it was an important one. For more information read my previous analysis. This chart is a zoom in of the previous one.
So far so good, the 8700 did hold as an strong support level, eventually. It wasn't an easy fight though, bulls made a few attempts but kep falling short around the 8900 and was dropping back to the 8700 again. Now an hour ago we finally broke this pattern and got above the 9.000. There was some volume with the breakout, but for this rally towards the 10.500 we will need to see some more volume. The first big resistance now is the 9200, i think bulls will take this fight on. It might not success the first time but as long as price stay above 8950/9000, than bulls will stay in charge. If they don't succeed, than this would be a fake breakout and we will probably drop to the 9700 support again. But i than it will brake it think. It will trigger another H&S that could bring us much lower, it could also break the 8200 support, neckline level of the big inverse H&S.
Looking at the fractal, we could see another small drop here, or maybe above the 9200 and than back to 9000 before continuing the rally to brake the 10K. It could just go up without making a correction, it's just the way it went 2 months ago. Just saying it to keep the bigger picture in mind in case price drops and we don't get scared to soon.
If we do manage to succeed to get towards the 10.500, i will probably go short around those levels. I think the shake out of the big bears has almost succeeded, prices above the 10.000 will probably be the last push for most :). It were some confusing days the past 2 weeks, but finally this week the volatility is (partially) back again, making my job somewhat easier. Predicting the big waves is still not easy, but for the smaller day trading it's a blessing :)
Now i won't be shorting it without any signals, but i will try to post it IF we get there and i will maybe even tell WHEN i will do it.
Good luck trading and don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing :)
My previous analysis
So far so good, the 8700 did hold as an strong support level, eventually. It wasn't an easy fight though, bulls made a few attempts but kep falling short around the 8900 and was dropping back to the 8700 again. Now an hour ago we finally broke this pattern and got above the 9.000. There was some volume with the breakout, but for this rally towards the 10.500 we will need to see some more volume. The first big resistance now is the 9200, i think bulls will take this fight on. It might not success the first time but as long as price stay above 8950/9000, than bulls will stay in charge. If they don't succeed, than this would be a fake breakout and we will probably drop to the 9700 support again. But i than it will brake it think. It will trigger another H&S that could bring us much lower, it could also break the 8200 support, neckline level of the big inverse H&S.
Looking at the fractal, we could see another small drop here, or maybe above the 9200 and than back to 9000 before continuing the rally to brake the 10K. It could just go up without making a correction, it's just the way it went 2 months ago. Just saying it to keep the bigger picture in mind in case price drops and we don't get scared to soon.
If we do manage to succeed to get towards the 10.500, i will probably go short around those levels. I think the shake out of the big bears has almost succeeded, prices above the 10.000 will probably be the last push for most :). It were some confusing days the past 2 weeks, but finally this week the volatility is (partially) back again, making my job somewhat easier. Predicting the big waves is still not easy, but for the smaller day trading it's a blessing :)
Now i won't be shorting it without any signals, but i will try to post it IF we get there and i will maybe even tell WHEN i will do it.
Good luck trading and don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing :)
My previous analysis
Note
Now a move like it did just now, is typical (sometimes) to shake out some bears before continuing the drop. It happens sometimes during bull or bear flags. So fingers on the trigger, as long as the 8950 holds than bulls are in favor.Best case scenario is, price staying above that green area around 9020
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I my story above i wrote a wrong price. It's this sentence:''If they don't succeed, than this would be a fake breakout and we will probably drop to the 9700 support again''
9700 should 8700
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Bulls are already going for it seems, could maybe even see an acceleration if they succeed. I think it's maybe to soon already but who knowsNote
I think it could be time to make a correction soon, maybe retest the 9000 again? Than we would still follow that fractal, so it would fit that pictureNote
Note
Okay, so now we have made that drop, there are 2 options now (bull version)1 we go like half a day sideways around 9100/9300 and make a correction in time
2 we drop towards 9000/8900 and than continue the rally.
Below the 8900 things get very tricky, that would probably mean that we only made a small bear shake out and we continue the correction downwards. I am still following the bullish version
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If we drop below the 9150, a small h&s will be triggered which could take us towards 8900/9000.Don’t forget to like guys :)
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For the ones who are interested, Gold is about to break out from a bullish wedge, could retest the the support again though. Wanted to post the trade but I am not at home nowNote
Look at like the H&S won’t fail, so if we drop below the 9150, we will probably see 8950/9000Note
So far the market is listening quite well to what i am saying :).Here you can see the H&S i was talking about, it also made a perfect retracement to the neckline again. It's never a guarantee it will reach it's target, but chances are quite big it will this time.
Here you can also see that level where price should stay above so that fractal i have been showing the last few days stays valid
Note
Target H&S reached, big chance price will need to stabilise around that green support level now. It's almost weekend so volatility will probably decrease again. Now it is going to be tricky now, Alts are showing different pictures, some are bullish some are bearish. If Bitcoin stays above that green area, i think we will get to see some higher prices this weekend, but i don't think we will see any big rally
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Now it's inside a small bear flag, what we want to see here is the flag be completed, break it downwards, make a slightly lower low and THEN (now i have it right? i looked it up just know :)) we need to see price getting bought up slowly again. To be clear, predictions like this are not based on real technicals, it's just what i think could happen. Just like the waves i predicted since yesterday. Do not always work out!
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I think we could see that drop any minute now. Things will get tricky for the bulls,the only way they can make it is if buyers get it around that green area and push the price back up again. There are allot of bearish signals suggesting another drop, but i assume that this is one of those times the obvious won't happen. So again, a drop below 8800 makes this short term plan invalidNote
Okay, we are in the green zone again, should not drop to much Note
We should be see price stabilizing now and go sideways. Should not drop below the 8800Note
This is good, bulls are showing they are not gone!Note
Now we are not there yet! But this was a good on this time frame, first confirmation would be a rise above 9100.Note
Looking really good now, it could make a small inverse H&S now. Whatever happens, price should stay above the 8860, but to keep momentum going above 9000.Don't forget to like guys :)
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New analysis
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