BITCOIN [$9,500-$9,650] Keep an Eye On It!
Updated
Hi,
Hopefully, it starts to become a habit but again, followers (already a huge number) and other TradingView users, it still looks and it still feels amazing to be TOP 1 analyst and TOP 1 post author on TradingView, thank You and You and You.
I have been quite quiet because the Bitcoin price has stopped between the $9,000-$9,300. Yesterday, it made breakout from the triangle and it followed my arrow which was on my last update post.
In the last idea post, I mentioned that there is an area where I search some bearish candlestick patterns on the Daily timeframe to short BTC for short-term. To be said, this is still on my mind but currently, we have collected some data (after the last post) from the current levels and I want to share with you a little bit more precise overview, where and what can happen on certain levels. The area I am about to describe is not a specific signal, I'm not sure about. Maybe it is too early to post it but I get a lot of requests and hopefully, you can find something useful from here.
The short-term rejection area
It stays between $9,500 - $9,650 (There are pictures below of this post for phone users, it should be better). It is the first area where the short-term reversal criteria matching each other in one price zone and those are:
1. The 38% Fibonacci retracement level ($9,531) from ATH (fat dotted black line). This level is a momentum level. If the downtrend or uptrend is very sharp then those levels usually should work very well. If the market drops/increase fastly then the market is like a human, if it breaths in then it has to breathe out, at least for a while, and very often this 38% level is enough for breathe out ;) Currently, we have been in this downtrend more than 1.5 years so, let's see how this level reacts if the price makes the first touch.
2. Smaller channel upper trendline should act as short-term resistance. It is pulled from points where it has a maximum wick touches.
3. Bigger channel upper trendline (thin blue line) should still act as a resistance. This channel starts from $7,000 having pretty clean and understandable touches.
4. There is also a Fibonacci Extension level 127%, which should act as a resistance.
5. The round number $9,500. Historically it has made some reversals and it has played a pretty important role on the bounces. Currently, it matching with our other short-term reversal criteria, so, pretty reasonable to count it also into the resistance list.
6. Hmmm...I don't even know how I start to call it because the Elliott guys are quickly notifying it. To be said, I don't like Elliott Wave theory at all, yes, maybe it is helpful for further growth/drop if you are already in the trade but to make precise entries with Elliott is almost impossible because it is SO subjective. No offense, this is IMHO ;)
I don't want to dig deeper and let's call it AB=CD and the D point is exactly on the blue box to stop that current wave. Look at the picture below, the purple arrows should give you a better overview of what I mean.
7. The red lines. The area which stays between the red lines is important. Previously when the BTC price was around $9,500 was April-May in 2018 and this area between the red line is a "Strong Area". Strong area - only strong candles have managed to crack it. Historically, multiple rejections and only strong and powerful candles have managed to break above of it or have managed to break below of it. Currently, this area matching exactly with our 38% Fibo retracement level which should act as a resistance, perfect match!
Here is also important to point this out that we need a clear rejection from the shorter timeframes and from the marked blue box. In the picture below you can see, if at least 1H candle can break above the blue box then the trend can continue to the upside (into the trend direction) to another resistance areas which can stop the price but currently, wait for a rejection from the light blue box!
Bullish confirmation is pretty clear, the strong candle breakthrough, the exact candle is on the picture ;)
Setup:
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
Hopefully, it starts to become a habit but again, followers (already a huge number) and other TradingView users, it still looks and it still feels amazing to be TOP 1 analyst and TOP 1 post author on TradingView, thank You and You and You.
I have been quite quiet because the Bitcoin price has stopped between the $9,000-$9,300. Yesterday, it made breakout from the triangle and it followed my arrow which was on my last update post.
In the last idea post, I mentioned that there is an area where I search some bearish candlestick patterns on the Daily timeframe to short BTC for short-term. To be said, this is still on my mind but currently, we have collected some data (after the last post) from the current levels and I want to share with you a little bit more precise overview, where and what can happen on certain levels. The area I am about to describe is not a specific signal, I'm not sure about. Maybe it is too early to post it but I get a lot of requests and hopefully, you can find something useful from here.
The short-term rejection area
It stays between $9,500 - $9,650 (There are pictures below of this post for phone users, it should be better). It is the first area where the short-term reversal criteria matching each other in one price zone and those are:
1. The 38% Fibonacci retracement level ($9,531) from ATH (fat dotted black line). This level is a momentum level. If the downtrend or uptrend is very sharp then those levels usually should work very well. If the market drops/increase fastly then the market is like a human, if it breaths in then it has to breathe out, at least for a while, and very often this 38% level is enough for breathe out ;) Currently, we have been in this downtrend more than 1.5 years so, let's see how this level reacts if the price makes the first touch.
2. Smaller channel upper trendline should act as short-term resistance. It is pulled from points where it has a maximum wick touches.
3. Bigger channel upper trendline (thin blue line) should still act as a resistance. This channel starts from $7,000 having pretty clean and understandable touches.
4. There is also a Fibonacci Extension level 127%, which should act as a resistance.
5. The round number $9,500. Historically it has made some reversals and it has played a pretty important role on the bounces. Currently, it matching with our other short-term reversal criteria, so, pretty reasonable to count it also into the resistance list.
6. Hmmm...I don't even know how I start to call it because the Elliott guys are quickly notifying it. To be said, I don't like Elliott Wave theory at all, yes, maybe it is helpful for further growth/drop if you are already in the trade but to make precise entries with Elliott is almost impossible because it is SO subjective. No offense, this is IMHO ;)
I don't want to dig deeper and let's call it AB=CD and the D point is exactly on the blue box to stop that current wave. Look at the picture below, the purple arrows should give you a better overview of what I mean.
7. The red lines. The area which stays between the red lines is important. Previously when the BTC price was around $9,500 was April-May in 2018 and this area between the red line is a "Strong Area". Strong area - only strong candles have managed to crack it. Historically, multiple rejections and only strong and powerful candles have managed to break above of it or have managed to break below of it. Currently, this area matching exactly with our 38% Fibo retracement level which should act as a resistance, perfect match!
Here is also important to point this out that we need a clear rejection from the shorter timeframes and from the marked blue box. In the picture below you can see, if at least 1H candle can break above the blue box then the trend can continue to the upside (into the trend direction) to another resistance areas which can stop the price but currently, wait for a rejection from the light blue box!
Bullish confirmation is pretty clear, the strong candle breakthrough, the exact candle is on the picture ;)
Setup:
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
Note
Fibonacci from ATH:Note
The sell setup would be a bit stronger if the price reaches into this level today or tomorrow. We need a little bit bigger and faster push, other ways the consistency kicks in and you should already know what would happen after consistent buying - in the crypto world, it equals with more powerful buying which can easily break this level.Currently, the marked starting point was great but nothing significant, still we need a little bit bigger push, okay not a little bit, much more than that!
Let's see, hopefully, we get something:
Regards!
Note
Having a powerful candle breakthrough, a possible triangle breakout might trigger a next leg to the 10k:Note
Obviously, a candle close needed.Note
$9,900 is touched and looks like soon we will see something a little bit bigger, at least the last 1H candle shows is:Bearish candlestick but in 1H which is not the best indication.
Do you remember my last post:
The price is on the green area and we need a bearish candlestick on the Daily timeframe which is definitely more reliable to make any moves. So, be patient, it can still easily fly above the 10k
Note
Powerfully through the 10k level, without any rejections, without any bearish candlestick patterns, so you can't be on the short side. Currently, I don't have time to (hopefully I find it) post another analysis but I'd like to point on one of my older posts. Definitely, this is not bragging, this simply might be the area where it wants to go:
As said, hopefully, I can make another deep down analysis about the resistance which stays $11,400-11,800.
About the current idea post - hopefully, you reacted when the strong candle cracked the mentioned $9,500 level (as shown on the major image) and you were in the market. The future sell setup should become pretty sweet but as said, we have to be patient and the 11,4-11,8k is on my watchlist. The next resistance has become stronger than it was on 14 May. when I posted it so, I'll try my best to do another analysis. This might be the area where we don't have to wait for a candlestick confirmation to short it.
See you soon!
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