BTCUSD Points of Interest Short and Long Term - 20/05/2020
As shown on the charts we can see 3 formations forming and all overlapped.
This means I have 2 points where I have high confidence that they will confirm a bull or bear trend which I would be looking for a longer-term hold (between days and weeks)
BULLISH CASE @ above $10,195.5
BEARISH CASE @ below $8617.5
On a shorter time frame we can see another pennant forming where there will be a high chance of a breakout
BREAKOUT UP @ $10,000
BREAKOUT DOWN @ $9474.5
Although, until we breakout to the outside of $8617 and $10,195 we will be closing any calling trades when they are immediately in profit as the volatility can eat your trade (especially if you are leveraged)
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
We still haven't seen a convincing break from correlation from stocks just yet. Looking at what is going on in the markets we can see that:
This still worries me for a huge quick drop which IMO will take the crypto markets with them as I believe many institutional investors will immediately sell their crypto to cover their long margin calls and keep their stocks.
We also have
Additionally, COVID-19 IMO is going to get worse in the US as they have just let it go with no consistent plan so it will be a matter of time before productivity will drop to a point that causes bankruptcies of bit economy driving institutions.
- Short-term pennant (rising wedge) (Only mentioning this for scalping)
- Steadily increasing channel from our local low of 3800 from 2 months ago
- A larger pennant over the years and we are in the upper band.
This means I have 2 points where I have high confidence that they will confirm a bull or bear trend which I would be looking for a longer-term hold (between days and weeks)
BULLISH CASE @ above $10,195.5
BEARISH CASE @ below $8617.5
On a shorter time frame we can see another pennant forming where there will be a high chance of a breakout
BREAKOUT UP @ $10,000
BREAKOUT DOWN @ $9474.5
Although, until we breakout to the outside of $8617 and $10,195 we will be closing any calling trades when they are immediately in profit as the volatility can eat your trade (especially if you are leveraged)
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
We still haven't seen a convincing break from correlation from stocks just yet. Looking at what is going on in the markets we can see that:
- DJI is still below 25000
- SPY below 3000
- China/US trade deals (that are hurting world economies)
- Trying to prop oil markets up and penalising renewables
- Large amounts of speculation on pharma companies
This still worries me for a huge quick drop which IMO will take the crypto markets with them as I believe many institutional investors will immediately sell their crypto to cover their long margin calls and keep their stocks.
We also have
- Bitmex accusations for money laundering and negligence
- BlockFi hack (not that bad but it is still a security flaw)
- BlockOne potential lawsuit
Additionally, COVID-19 IMO is going to get worse in the US as they have just let it go with no consistent plan so it will be a matter of time before productivity will drop to a point that causes bankruptcies of bit economy driving institutions.
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