Long

BTCUSD test 2760 via 2606 and 2700 battles - 3000 upside

Updated

My last trades were based on the big bearish bat(?) (or whatever it was) doing the correction down from the height of 2995 and leading to D on this chart:

Long then short then long - big bearish butterfly BTCUSD?

though I had the dimensions, intersects of XABCD and classification as a butterfly wrong the deal worked out really well because other indicators were pointing in the same direction which is what I want to see from a good trade setup - multiple coherent signals that overlays well with fundamentals.

That said, learning...

As expected that system bottomed out last night CET Europe time at 2420-40 and I went long as I said I would at 2424 when the 15min chart showed a confirmed Doji and the market turned to bullish after a smaller bat or butterfly formed, 30min MACD was in favor of long, 30min and 1hr RSI was in favor. I even bought up more coins :-)

That's the long position I traded since then and that worked out well, now at 2570 this morning. I'm holding this long with a target at 2760 though with some risk of pullback at 2608 and 2700 where the Fibonacci Retracement and resistance zone of the past "bat"? had its B and D points which snaps on to the past R/S systems and uptrend. I expect some "war" of demand and supply here and if its really bad I will put in a very aggressive trailing stop just to avoid loosing the upside if there is a down to a retest of 2440.

Once that clears out and we are on the support side of 2706 we should see further war at the target of 2760. If we break through on to the other side then it will quite a bullish rally up to test 3000 again as the FOMO will kick - "OMG!! here we go again!!". I will make a new trade to catch the train up to 3000 but thats more risky.

Getting onboard this deal could be done at the bottoms of the zig zagging up, 2530 looks possible (sorry - I couldn't document it until this morning - busy with my kids doing sports this weekend :D). You know how to put in your limits and stops so go get the train!

Generally I want my Risk/Reward at 1:2, so on this deal my risk is a total crash and burn down to 2000 and upside up to 3000 having entered at 2422 I've got plenty of stop loss down to there and plenty of upside, so that works for me.

I'm still worried that we could see a major correction down to 2000 or at least 2420 again because 1d MACD isn't too happy.

Have a nice ride! ...and let me know if my harmonic pattern is finally spot on and was it a bat?

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The entry I did on this deal:

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Since Im leveraged 3:1 I wanted to grab the profits at 2560 and reinvest. Now I'm timing my re-entry ... always scary -- is this what we're looking at:

tick tack ... waiting... feeling my heart beat.

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another perspective on the 1min chart:

... I believe its gonna go to 2540ish but lets wait and see... timing tick tack

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Thanks - I got back in at 2543

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My timing on 2543 might be a little off... still getting to learn and feel just how volatile BTCUSD is ...

downtrend maybe as deep as 2500 before we establish a new up trend since 15min, 30min and 1hr MACD says that the up from the bullish bat or butterfly might be over?

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Ive tripled down with a position at 2510 stop loss at 2485 to catch the train back up, probably will cash in at 2600 then wait and see

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And more at 2450(to be executed I hope), 2480 and so on, now's the time to buy:

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We might get a bit of a headwind, so Im updating my stop loss to 2515 and then will sit out until things are a little calmer? not sure yet

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This is what Im nerveous about

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come ooooooonnnnnn :D

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Since im margin trading I took my profits home so I can reinvest after we get above the resistance or I will pick up from the next bottom because each $1 is worth 3 for me :-)

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Got back in at 2534 and then had to wait forever until the train started to move, now on the up and away beat. Just broke through the resistance. This should be a fun wild ride. Uuuuuuup!

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Alright, was a nice ride today, moments of truth came and passed, so far so good. I will cash in another round of profit once we reach a plateau around about 2608 as I promised myself - partly because its a Fibonacci Retracement line from the big last rally and partly because I want to always reinvest my profits each time I hit about 2-3% return depending on the size of my position (and my risk reward which I always want to be at least 1:2).

... then I will go long again to see if we reach the target at 2760

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I think we are getting ready for the last big bounce up :-)

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Good morning everybody, its 9AM here in Europe and the first target of 2600 was met in my sleep :D now I'm waiting to get back into the market because as expected there's a bit of a war at 2600. I want to see a clear signal that we break free of the strange attractors, dragons and dungeons around these fault lines, so that I can chill with my coffee and hear some music and do some other work. Like code up some new ethereum based fund with solidity or play with Aragon. Or something. Check out the battle and fault lines of support but also strangely attracting attractors ... I feel some fractals in there without being able to formulate it:

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Yeah - so one of many reasons why Im a bit worried to be in BTCUSD and cashed out at 2600, just bigger picture here's what I expect is going on.

We probably had some sort of harmonic thing with the big dips after the 3000 peak where the FOMO turned into FUD. After such it should be expected to have less and less but downwards pointing movements with support from the dips moving upwards and pressure from the peaks downwards. We are now at intersect.

The 1 day MACD still shows we could get a pull back and crash through the testing of the support zones.

The last top at 2600 about + the Fib Ret at 2626 from the peak of 3000 to the bottom at 2050ish should make for a bumpy ride, so thats why I prefer to wait out and see where the market goes.

Short term timing, ema versus candle trend, MACD, RSI and this bigger picture helps me pull the trigger once we get closer to the "safer zone"

Let me know what you think?

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On that note - to have a sane life: I have a couple of alarms pinging my phone. If we reach 2600, 2610, 2620 I know to go long and will get to my station.

If we hit 2560, 2550 I get a ping and will decide if I go short.

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OK so I was on the highway when we had the nice spike up into the safe zone, but that's alright I got into my long position at 2617 as the train was departing the station. This is where I wanted to be entering the market, so all is good. Here's how its looking, we are most likely safe and up we go:

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Tempted to short buuuut... nah... to little R/R

Trade closed: target reached

I hope you all had a great day today and reached the 2760 I predicted. I reached it and got my limit executed while being with my kids and putting them to bed, so I didnt get to take a screen shot but I have one from my phone. That's a great feeling!!!

Now there should be lots of swing trading opportunities. Hold your deals until they get confirmed, its dangerous. And have a ton of swing fun!

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Oh - and in case anyone wonders: my plan was to limit and close at 2760, then sit out as the market figures out 2700-2760 belt and either we pull through once all time scale MACDs are aligned to go north for a biiiiiig swing down at 2700 and pierce through the double top currently blocking us -- or we bounce back down south and might retest 2440 or even deeper. Because this lady is crazy and she's angry right now, so I'm on vacation - see you at the beach.

My alarms are ringing at 2770 and 2700, then I check the charts and decide to enter or not. Order another ice tea at the beach, chill :D

For me those 60-80 $-points aren't worth it because my R/R of 1:3, the volatility and the waiting game...

bernino

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