Updated

BTC enters range of average bear market bottom

Some details in the chart that can be considered when averaging in:

Price has reached the average bear market target threshold – 83±8% [average ± standard deviation] (range from 6 to 16 k, from Fib level 0.236 to 1).
Bullish RSI divergence on Weekly, which can be maintained with further drop.
In 2018 bottom was 200WMA, in 2020 - 300WMA, 400WMA (~13 k, Fib level 1) can be of interest this year.
300WMA has confluence with Keltner Channel with 16/16 settings - indicated several previous macro bottoms, including cycle bottoms.
last week's candle has a capitulation volume.

Volume profile of this cycle indicates strong support at ~11 k, Fib level 0.618 to 0.786
In the previous bear market Fib time zones were not useless. This time by levels 8 and 13 - middle of 2022 (according to some macro economy analysts - around the time when FED may introduce softer tightening measures.) and Q1 2024 (around the time of BTC halving) is indicated. If these dates will have any significance, time will show. But I would monitor closely if there are additional signs of bottoming between now and the middle of 2023 and a price range of 10 to 16 k.

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Volume behaviour similarities here. But it should be considered that volume itself can't tell if it is distribution or accumulation.

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Fib extensions of 200WMA indicate levels we already know: 16k, 13k, 10k and 6k.

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DXY seems to bottom and gain strength. SP500 seems weak.

The first sign of weakness on BTC as well, but the last rally was supported by volume, therefore I would not be surprised if it still managed to rally to 0.382 due ti some mystic expectations of Santa rally.

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13k would not be the worst place to DCA for sure.

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Some comparison of dominances. Eventually stables will go down, so we have 3 ? there and we see uncertainty with width of parallel channels?

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My current outlook on this week so far- signs signaling probable market exhaustion:
1) Weekly volume dropped with each candle back to mid-term average and below 20 MA.
2) Daily RSI divergence
3) Bearish price action at current consolidation level - most volume spikes are selloffs and trends are not supported by volume, this can be seen very well on 1H timeframe. This probably signals a distribution.
4) Potential trend change could be confirmed if the weekly candle closes with a new local high (that we have now) as doji or with red body and negative delta (more market sellers than buyers within the candle) to make a decision.

Sorry, I can't add charts - too low reputation. :D

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The weekly close confirmed delta divergence - the price made new local high, closed red and had more market sellers than buyers. The cumulative volume delta kept dropping during this whole uptrend channel at this consolidation range, supporting a theory that this consolidation is a distribution. All this gives more weight to that bearish daily RSI divergence should resolve as a selloff instead of the idea that the indicator is simply "resetting" like some would like to think. Additional weight towards expected correction is due to DXY strength last 2 days.

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This chart shows that one standard deviation from VWAP since BTC's inception has been an appropriate place for DCA. However, the question of "if this time is different" due to macro conditions still remains. NVT shows another picture, usually, it's been this active close to tops or dumps.

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I still doubt this resistance will be broken to continue this rally. At least I have stopped my DCA for the past few weeks. To break a resistance volume and market buyers are needed, but:
1) volume has been pretty much drying out ever since the pump was initiated;
2) RSI keeps looking more weaker;
3) Some may say HLs while retesting the resistance may be bullish, but CVD shows that market seller dominance is continuously increasing - resistance can not be broken without market buyers with volume;
4) yesterday we had market buyers that in Binance orderflow showed up as stacked buyers imbalance (something that was not seen so far at this resistance yet, by me at least), which means those buys got absorbed by limit sell again. We can see it plays out or is already played out by wick and lower prices now.
5) Multi-month support of USDT and BUSD dominance support level of 11% also has not been broken during all this pump and playing around this 25k resistance level. Seems that stables holders are still not interested to buy now. At least not before the resistance is broken. But its crypto, fake out would be great for heavier long squeeze later.
6) But I doubt it will get broken because of partially data-backed evidence shows that this has always been a game of pushing the price up by higher and higher buy walls, to distribute where we see the wicks. These buy walls are obvious on heatmaps but sell walls are not - I guess the usual game is to give the impression that some large player is interested to buy now. No, I believe he rather wants to believe others think so to push them into his sell limit orders or shorts managed by bots, hence not visible on heatmaps.
7) NVT is also getting more heated, which seems dangerous.

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I don't know if I'm allowed to post such link here, but what I see should be taken with caution, it seems absorption led to exhaustion, and possible distribution again.
coinalyze.net/snapshot/aIdkRAXA

putnatirgo

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