About 4 years ago bitcoin started the new bullish cycle and right now we are at the same point with a similar pattern
As showed in the 2015 chart the SMA50 and SMA200 weekly are containing and compressing the price, and right now we are about to test the SMA50 arount 5700$
If the pattern repeat there will be a rejection from the SMA50 and a decline that will bring us to test again the SMA200 at least one more time.
The SMA's will gradually compress the price until it will breakout from them...the breaking up the SMA50 weekly will act as a strong sign for the new bullish trend, viceversa a break down the SMA200 will increase the chances to reach new lows (sub 3000).