BTC in Phase B of a Wyckoff Re-Distribution Trading Range
Updated
In my previous publication, I opened a long position at what I thought at the time was a selling climax (SC). My analysis was incorrect, as what I thought was a SC was, in fact, a preliminary supply (PS) like event. The PS is known as the first concerted attempt to stop the down trend. Lesson learned.
Nevertheless, the BTC price has entered another Wyckoff re-distribution trading range, which is to be confirmed or to fail based on market events.
We are in Phase B as we’ve observed the SC and the automatic rally (ARa). Therefore, I’d expect the price to test the lower boundary of the trading range in the form of a secondary test (ST). This idea is consistent with the Phoenix Ascending (PA) indicator, given in the lower panel. I expect the red line to be rejected near level 50 then turn back down and for the green line to continue moving downward. The energy fall below 50 soon, indicating downward pressure on the price.
Significant bars, which help define important areas of support and resistance, are given by the blue shading.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), upthrust after distribution (UDAT), preliminary supply (PS), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
Nevertheless, the BTC price has entered another Wyckoff re-distribution trading range, which is to be confirmed or to fail based on market events.
We are in Phase B as we’ve observed the SC and the automatic rally (ARa). Therefore, I’d expect the price to test the lower boundary of the trading range in the form of a secondary test (ST). This idea is consistent with the Phoenix Ascending (PA) indicator, given in the lower panel. I expect the red line to be rejected near level 50 then turn back down and for the green line to continue moving downward. The energy fall below 50 soon, indicating downward pressure on the price.
Significant bars, which help define important areas of support and resistance, are given by the blue shading.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), upthrust after distribution (UDAT), preliminary supply (PS), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
Note
Looking at the BTC price in conjunction with the Bad Ass Bollinger Bands (BA BBs) and PA in higher time frames seems to confirm the re-distributional nature of the current trading range. Note
The BTC price and the BA BBs and PA indicator in the monthly time frame.Note
Some expressed interest in a chart that contained the volume information. Here it is. Notice the massive volume spikes on May 11-12. Notice also the large supply tail and much larger demand tail on the May 12 daily candle. That tells us that weak hands were capitulating and strong hands (e.g., value investors with a long time horizon) were buying up BTC. It is the large amount of buying activity that stopped the down trend and produced the trading range.
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