Bitcoin’s price has been showing signs of a sustained downtrend after forming a double top pattern. The recent action, combined with low volume and failure to breach key resistance zones, points to a likely retest of lower levels. Over the weekend, the price couldn’t break past the 85K resistance, and the low trading volume around this level suggests that buyer interest is waning.
6H TF Chart:
Big Picture vs. Short-Term Action
On a higher timeframe (6H), my indicator neatly outlines the bear market of 2022 and the bull market that started in early 2023—when the “cloud” turned green, signaling a shift in momentum. The cloud's lower boundary is currently at $73,364, which is key. Imo, holding above 70K is critical for keeping that bullish vibe alive.
1H TF Chart:
Switching over to the 1H chart, the picture shows a bearish structure. The upper resistance around 95K (which aligns with the yearly open near $93,455.85) is proving a solid resistance. The anchored VWAP from the all-time high also sits right at this level, adding more weight to the resistance. Bulls need to clear this yearly open to signal a true recovery.
Key Levels & Confluence Zones
1.) Upper Resistance – 93K to 95K:
2.) Critical Support – 73K to 70K Zone:
3.) Monthly Open – $83,385.74:
Trade Setups
Long Trade Setup:
Short Trade Setup:
Thank you for taking the time to read through this technical analysis. I hope it provides valuable insights for your trading decisions. Happy trading!
6H TF Chart:
Big Picture vs. Short-Term Action
On a higher timeframe (6H), my indicator neatly outlines the bear market of 2022 and the bull market that started in early 2023—when the “cloud” turned green, signaling a shift in momentum. The cloud's lower boundary is currently at $73,364, which is key. Imo, holding above 70K is critical for keeping that bullish vibe alive.
1H TF Chart:
Switching over to the 1H chart, the picture shows a bearish structure. The upper resistance around 95K (which aligns with the yearly open near $93,455.85) is proving a solid resistance. The anchored VWAP from the all-time high also sits right at this level, adding more weight to the resistance. Bulls need to clear this yearly open to signal a true recovery.
Key Levels & Confluence Zones
1.) Upper Resistance – 93K to 95K:
- The 95K zone aligns closely with the yearly open ($93,455.85) and the anchored VWAP from the all-time high, both acting as resistance.
- Daily moving averages (62 EMA at ~$91,316 and 62 SMA at ~$94,900) provide further confluence.
- Additional resistance between 85K-86K.
2.) Critical Support – 73K to 70K Zone:
- The lower edge of the cloud on the 6H timeframe sits around 73K.
- The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (from the low at $15,473.78 to the all-time high at $109,354) is at $73,492, while the 0.618 retracement (from $49,217 to the all-time high) is around $72,205.
- Moving Averages on Weekly Chart: The weekly 62 EMA ($72,919) and 62 SMA ($71,590) align well with this support region.
- Additional Support: A bullish monthly order block at $71,320 adds another layer of confluence.
- Psychological Importance: A hold above 70K is critical to maintaining bullish momentum.
3.) Monthly Open – $83,385.74:
- This level serves as a pivot: price is currently hovering below it. A reclaim by bulls would be a positive sign for higher price action, while a rejection reinforces the bearish setup.
Trade Setups
Long Trade Setup:
- Entry: Consider laddering in between 75K and 70K as the price retests support.
- Take Profit: Aim for the monthly open (~84K) initially, and if support holds and flips, a move toward 90K could be considered.
- Stop Loss: Set below 70K to protect against a further downturn.
Short Trade Setup:
- Entry: A short setup can start at the monthly open, using a laddering approach between 84K and about 86.9K.
- Take Profit: Target the previous low or 74K.
- Stop Loss: Place just above 87K to keep risk in check.
Thank you for taking the time to read through this technical analysis. I hope it provides valuable insights for your trading decisions. Happy trading!
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Mastering Fibonacci for precision trading
🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups 🔹
⚡ Unlock the power of technical analysis! ⚡
🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups 🔹
⚡ Unlock the power of technical analysis! ⚡
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.